Socio-Economics History Blog

Socio-Economics & History Commentary

Biggest Event in a Generation | Jim Willie on Metals & Markets

  • SilverDoctors Published on Apr 20, 2018
    Jim Willie tells Elijah Johnson and James Anderson the launch of the gold and oil Yuan contracts is the most important financial event in a generation. The Chinese want their own place in global finance. No longer does the dollar have a monopoly on oil. “This is the end time for the Dollar’s dominance.” China is moving away from the U.S. not solely by leaving the Dollar, but also through the trade conflict. Willie predicts China will demand the Saudi’s sell oil in RMB terms. This will be a “knife in the heart of the Petrodollar.”

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April 21, 2018 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

ECB Is Now Preparing All Banks For The Economic Collapse?

  • X22Report Published on Apr 19, 2018
    The house of lords or pushing to overturn the BREXIT, the central bankers will not allow the BREXIT to happen and they will used everything they have to stop it. The Canadians just broke the old record for borrowing against their homes. This is happening as home prices are declining. Real estate market is headed for a disaster. Trump and Abe agree on trade. The ECB moves to protect all banks against the economic collapse.

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April 21, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bill Holter: Syria So Very Very Dangerous

  • Bill Holter: Syria So Very Very Dangerous
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com  
    Financial writer and gold expert Bill Holter says China has a lot of weapons to fight a trade war with the U.S. China could stop buying Treasury bonds (as it reportedly already has done).  It could sell Treasury bonds.  It could slash the value of the Yuan, or something much simpler could happen such as a failed delivery of physical precious metals.  Holter says, “If what has happened so far in the first three months of the year were to continue for the full year, you would be over three billion ounces (of silver).  That is not deliverable.”What happen when the world figures out that three billion ounces of physical silver cannot and will not be delivered to the buyers? Holter explains, “That’s called an old fashion run on the banks.  It will be a run on the entire system.  You would have a run on every metals exchange, and you would probably have runs on many physical commodities.  Confidence throughout the whole system would break.  You would basically show the western fractional reserve system is a fraud and has been for many, many years. . . . Can London deliver a billion ounces, or two billion ounces or three billion ounces of silver?  The answer to that is no.”


    So, when does this all blow up? Holter says, “I think this whole thing has a very good chance of blowing this year.”

    There are a variety of financial trip wires, according to Bill Holter, such as thousands of sealed criminal indictments that will be unsealed in 2018. Holter also points out the explosion of global debt.  Holter charges, “It’s now $237 trillion.  The amount of debt grew by $21 trillion globally over the last 12 months. That’s roughly 10 %.  How much did global GDP grow?   2% or 3%, I mean that is totally unsustainable.”

    The biggest worry for Holter right now is escalating military action in Syria. Holter warns, “This is so, so dangerous.  Obviously, you worry about a hot war because with the weapons you have today, you could have WWIII start in a heartbeat.  But look at the market today.  It’s up 400 or 500 points.  You have talk of trade wars.  You have talk of hot wars.  It amazing the markets can hold together and ignore potential annihilation.”

    In closing, Holter says, “This is math logic and common sense. This is no longer opinion.  You could go back to 2006 and 2007, and it could be argued it was opinion at that point.  It’s no longer opinion.  It’s pure math.  The system is unsustainable.  We’re headed for a train wreck.  Do I absolutely know it’s going to be this year?  No, I don’t know that, but you can see the events are piling up so quickly it certainly looks like it’s going to come to a crescendo very soon.”

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April 12, 2018 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

“We Understand The Chinese Government Has Halted Purchases Of US Treasuries”: SGH

  • “We Understand The Chinese Government Has Halted Purchases Of US Treasuries”: SGH
    by Tyler Durden, https://www.zerohedge.com/
    On Friday, we reported that among the five “nuclear” options available to Beijing to retaliate against Trump’s latest $100BN in proposed import tariffs, was the choice whether to sell US Treasuries. But what if Beijing did not want to unleash a full-blown market nuke, and instead was hoping for a targeted, EMP hit?

    Then it would simply stop buying US paper, instead of dumping it outright; in the process it wouldn’t hurt the US too much – avoiding a furious tit-for-tat response – but would still send a clear signal to the White House, whose fiscal spending plan will more than double net Treasury issuance this year from under $500BN to over $1 trillion, and which needs every possible marginal buyer of US paper, both domestic and foreign.

    Which is precisely what a new report by SGH Macro Advisors claims. According to the consultancy, a long-time favorite of macro hedge funds, Beijing has twice threatened deliberately targeted tit-for-tat punitive measures against the US to date: “first, in response to the Trump Administration’s threat of steel and aluminum tariffs, and second, in response to broader measures aimed at $50 billion of products that lie directly at the heart of Chinese technology transfers, intellectual property violations, and strategic, “Made in China 2025” plan.

    But even as US cabinet officials lined up yesterday to calm jittery equity markets, SGH says in a note released over the weekend that “China had already signaled an aggressive and potentially more ominous escalation in the developing trade wars to the White House“:

    read more.

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April 10, 2018 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Trade Is a Matter of Survival for China

  • Trade Is a Matter of Survival for China
    by , https://dailyreckoning.com/
    Many investors are familiar with the fact that President Franklin Roosevelt closed all of the banks in America and confiscated all of the privately-owned gold by executive order in the early days of his administration, which began in 1933.

    Presidents since then have seized assets from countries such as Iran, Syria, North Korea and Cuba and imposed sanctions on Russia and many other countries by executive order. Yet, relatively few are familiar with the statutory authority for these orders.

    The president does not need an act of Congress to support such extreme actions. The laws have already been passed and the president has standing authority to act like a dictator with regard to financial assets.

    The first such statue was the Trading With the Enemy Act of 1917, TWE. This was used to seize German assets in the U.S. during the First World War. It’s how the U.S. took control of Bayer Aspirin from the German firm Bayer AG.

    TWE was the authority FDR used to close the banks and seize the gold. It’s not clear whom FDR considered the “enemy” when he used TWE; probably private gold hoarders. But, in 1977, the Congress enacted an even more extreme version of TWE called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, or IEEPA.

    This is the equivalent of a nuclear weapon when it comes to financial warfare.

    read more.

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April 9, 2018 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , | Leave a comment

Petro-Yuan to Launch RenMinBi as Global Currency & Kneecap Petro-Dollar

  • Petro-Yuan to Launch RenMinBi as Global Currency & Kneecap Petro-Dollar
    by https://www.rt.com/
    Yuan-backed oil futures can shatter the US dollar dominance on the crude market, according to experts polled by RT. However, the greenback will not give up the top spot easily.

    “The question number one is whether China will be able to make the oil market its demand market, and not the oil supply market traded in dollars, which it is now,”
     Vladimir Rozhankovsky, Global FX Investment analyst, told RT. China has recently overtaken the US as the world’s number one oil buyer.


    The question number two is trade wars. If the world trade enters into a death spiral of reciprocal economic sanctions, keeping oil trade in dollars will be a matter of strategic importance, or a matter of survival for the US,” the analyst added.

    As a result, Washington can deliberately undermine the image of the petro-yuan by attacking Chinese stock, which could result in the devaluation of the yuan, making Chinese oil futures less attractive, Rozhankovsky said.

    However, the US has obvious disadvantages which the petro-yuan can capitalize on. First, the US dollar is still too strong, making domestic oil production very expensive. Second, the United States does not have transatlantic pipelines, and tankers are costly and highly risky, the analyst added.

    “The trade war between the US and China has already begun. China has plans to promote the renminbi as a reserve currency and there is no better move than to purchase raw materials in its national currency. It can save money on the currency conversion and become less dependent on the US dollar,”
     Stanislav Werner, head of the analytical department of Dominion, told RT.


    The analyst notes that the oil market is worth $14 trillion at the moment, and is bigger than the Chinese economy. “The first trading sessions were volatile, but this is a typical story for new financial instruments. The US has a serious reason to get nervous, because in many ways the hegemony of the US dollar came from oil trading in dollars,” he said.

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April 7, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , | Leave a comment

Are We About To Get Another Plaza Accord Style Devaluation Of The Dollar?

  • Are We About To Get Another Plaza Accord Style Devaluation Of The Dollar?
    by https://www.silverdoctors.com/
    “trade tensions with the U.S. are one factor behind the strengthening of the yuan, and “there are similarities” between China now and Japan in 1985…”

    by Wendy Chu via GATA
    China’s forex regulator has warned residents and companies not to “gamble” on the yuan’s exchange rate, as the currency’s rapid appreciation raises concerns about its impact on Chinese exports.

    The warning from Wang Chunying, head of the international payments department at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, came after the yuan has gained about 9 percent against the U.S. dollar in the last 12 months.

    That has fueled talk that China is on a similar trajectory to Japan after Japan signed the Plaza Accord in 1985 — to weaken the U.S. dollar against the yen, resulting in a sharp rise in the Japanese currency — when it was under pressure from Washington to cut its trade surplus.

    In an interview with state news agency Xinhua over the weekend, Wang did not touch on trade tensions with the U.S., but said “the yuan has entered a stage of two-way fluctuation.” She said foreign exchange purchases should be based on real demand rather than speculation on the yuan’s movement. “Especially for companies, they should not use financial derivatives as a tool to make money,” Wang said. “Companies should have the awareness.”

    read more.

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April 7, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , | Leave a comment

China Ready to Defend Own Interests ‘At Any Cost’ as Trump Threatens $100Bn More in Tariffs

  • China Ready to Defend Own Interests ‘At Any Cost’ as Trump Threatens $100Bn More in Tariffs
    by https://www.rt.com/
    Responding to Donald Trump’s threat to impose an additional $100 billion in tariffs on China, Beijing said it did not want a trade war, but was not afraid to “follow suit to the end” to protect its core economic interests.

    “The Chinese position has been made very clear,”
     according to a Friday statement by a spokesman for the ministry of commerce. Beijing doesn’t seek to engage in an economic conflict, but in the worst-case scenario, it is “not afraid to fight a trade war.”

    China “will follow suit to the end” should Washington disrespect its opposition to American “unilateralism and trade protectionism.” Beijing would  defend the country’s interests “at any cost”and won’t hesitate to take counter measures.

    China also slammed Washington’s unilateralism which, it says, undermines global free trade. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy will carry on with reforms and will continue to open up to the world in order to “safeguard the multilateral trading system” and promote the liberalization of global trade and investment, the ministry stated.

    read more.

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April 7, 2018 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , | Leave a comment

China Mentions The ‘Nuclear Option’ We Could Dump Treasuries

  • X22Report Published on Apr 5, 2018
    India bans bitcoin wallets and trading cryptocurrencies. Venezuela is doing the opposite, they want to pay for goods using their cryptocurrency. The US has the largest trade deficit since the financial crisis. Trump pushes trade wars with China, tries to get other countries involved. China says they might use the nuclear option, sell treasury bonds. This is what Trump is pushing for, the dumping of Treasuries to put the central bank in a bind to show they are purchasing them all.

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April 6, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Trump Threatens China with $100Bn More in Tariffs as Response to Beijing’s ‘Unfair Retaliation’

  • Trump Threatens China with $100Bn More in Tariffs as Response to Beijing’s ‘Unfair Retaliation’
    by https://www.rt.com/
    Donald Trump has instructed the US Trade Representative to consider slapping China with an additional $100 billion in tariffs, accusing China of engaging in “unfair retaliation” instead of backing down to Washington’s pressure.

    “Rather than remedy its misconduct, China has chosen to harm our farmers and manufacturers. In light of China’s unfair retaliation, I have instructed the USTR to consider whether $100 billion of additional tariffs would be appropriate under section 301 and, if so, to identify the products upon which to impose such tariffs,”
     Trump’s statement, released by the White House, said.


    Earlier this week Beijing announced that it was considering a mirror response, after the United States Trade Representative (USTR) released a preliminary list of Chinese products, totalling some $50 billion, which it plans to slap with increased tariffs, under Trump’s order.

    Despite Beijing’s repeated warnings that it would proportionally respond to any US moves, and its calls for negotiations to avoid an escalation of a trade war, Donald Trump on Thursday decided to adopt a harsher policy. While instructing the USTR to consider new measures, he once again cited Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which had previously “determined that China has repeatedly engaged in practices to unfairly obtain America’s intellectual property.”

    Somewhat downplaying this new round in the trade spat, which is likely to further impact global stock markets, Trump claimed that he was still ready to have discussions with China to achieve a “free, fair, and reciprocal trade and to protect the technology and intellectual property of American companies and American people.”

    “Trade barriers must be taken down to enhance economic growth in America and around the world. I am committed to enabling American companies and workers to compete on a level playing field around the world, and I will never allow unfair trade practices to undermine American interests,”
     the White House statement reads.

    read more.

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April 6, 2018 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , | Leave a comment

‘It’s Only Polite to Reciprocate’: Beijing Slams New US Tariffs on $50Bn Worth of Chinese Goods

  • ‘It’s Only Polite to Reciprocate’: Beijing Slams New US Tariffs on $50Bn Worth of Chinese Goods
    by https://www.rt.com/
    After the US unveiled a preliminary list of imports from China that will be hit by the tariff hikes ordered by President Trump last month, Beijing has vowed to take retaliatory measures of “equal scale and strength.”

    “The Chinese side strongly condemns and firmly opposes the unfounded Section 301 investigation and the proposed list of products and tariff increases based on the investigation,”
     a Chinese embassy statement said, according to Reuters.


    “As the Chinese saying goes, it is only polite to reciprocate. The Chinese side will resort to the [World Trade Organization] dispute settlement mechanism and take corresponding measures of equal scale and strength against US products in accordance with Chinese law.”

    The Chinese Ministry of Commerce also condemned the US tariff proposals, saying that it is ready to take countermeasures against US imports.

    “Disregarding strong representations by China, the United States announced the tariff proposals that are completely unfounded, a typical unilateralist and protectionist practice that China strongly condemns and firmly opposes,”
     the ministry of commerce said Wednesday, according to Xinhua.


    While noting that Beijing has the “confidence and ability” to respond to US protectionism, the ministry also vowed to take the dispute to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

    “The list of proposed measures recently published by the United States is an intentional and major violation of the basic WTO principles,”
     China’s WTO envoy, Zhang Xiangchen, added in a comment posted on Weibo microblog platform, according to Sputnik.


    “In the context of these wrong US steps, China is planning to resort to the WTO dispute settlement mechanism,”
     Zhang Xiangchen said“At the same time we call on all the WTO member states to stand firm against the US trade protectionism along with China.”

    Earlier on Tuesday the US Trade Representative’s office unveiled a list of products which Washington wants to slap with 25% levies, in order to force Beijing to stop what Trump believes to be “unfair” trade practices. The list includes some 1,300 products, ranging from chemicals and diodes to motorcycles and dental devices.


    read more.

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April 4, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , | Leave a comment

US Proposes 25% Tariffs on 1,300 Chinese Products

  • RT America Published on Apr 3, 2018
    The Trump administration has named about 1,300 Chinese exports for possible tariffs. Experts say this may add up to about $50 billion in tariffs on imports from China. This week the Chinese government placed new tariffs on a number of agricultural products, but pork producers may be the hardest hit. For more, RT America’s Ed Schultz speaks with Roger Johnson, president of the National Farmers Union.

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April 4, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , | Leave a comment

Trade War Round 2: US Releases China Tariff List Targeting 1,300 Products

  • Trade War Round 2: US Releases China Tariff List Targeting 1,300 Products
    by Tyler Durden, https://www.zerohedge.com/
    Assuring that a second retaliation by China in the escalating trade war is just a matter of days if not hours, moments ago the US Trade Representative released a list of Chinese product subject to 25% tariffs as part of Trump’s Section 301 crackdown on Beijing Intellectual Property abuses, focusing on China’s high tech product push.

    The list covers about 1,300 tariff lines, or 44 pages, the USTR said referring to a system of codes used to categorize products. It added that the value of the list is approximately $50 billion in terms of estimated annual trade value for calendar year 2018, a level which is “appropriate both in light of the estimated harm to the U.S. economy, and to obtain elimination of China’s harmful acts, policies, and practices.” Some example of are shown below:

    read more.

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April 4, 2018 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , | Leave a comment

Trade War Retaliation: China Slaps US with Up To 25% Bigger Import Tariffs

  • RT Published on Apr 1, 2018
    Beijing is hiking up tariffs on more than 128 US imports, including fruit and pork, as part of a tit-for-tat response to US President Donald Trump’s $60 billion package of tariffs imposed against China. READ MORE: https://on.rt.com/92bn

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April 2, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , | Leave a comment

China: Washington Has Broken WTO Rules

  • PressTV Published on Mar 27, 2018
    China says U-S President Donald Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on up to 60 billion dollars of Chinese goods have broken the rules of the World Trade Organization. China’s envoy to the WTO said Washington’s unilateralism is wrecking the Geneva-based trade body. The official demanded that the WTO members unite to defend the intergovernmental trade organization against such a move. China and the U-S have been engaged in a war of words and tit-for-tat measures over Washington’s new tariffs on Chinese imports. This has also pushed Beijing to unveil plans to impose tariffs on U-S imports.

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March 28, 2018 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , | Leave a comment