Socio-Economics History Blog

Socio-Economics & History Commentary

Trump Warns US Tariffs on Chinese Imports to Remain in Place for “Substantial Period”

  • PressTV Published on Mar 21, 2019
    U-S President Donald Trump says Washington is considering keeping its tariffs on Chinese products in place for a substantial period of time. Trump said China has had free reign over the United States, taking out 5 hundred billion dollars a year for many years. He warned that the U-S would never catch up if a QUOTE great trade deal with Beijing is not reached. The world’s two biggest economies have been locked in a trade war with tit-for-tat tariff measures. Top-level negotiators are trying to hammer out an agreement before a truce, agreed in December, expires.

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March 22, 2019 Posted by | Economics | , , , | Leave a comment

FedEx Just Warned the Global Economy Is Slowing Down! Economic Breakdown

March 22, 2019 Posted by | Economics | , , | Leave a comment

FedEx Is Talking As If A Global Recession Has Already Begun – And The Numbers Back That Up

  • FedEx Is Talking As If A Global Recession Has Already Begun – And The Numbers Back That Up
    by http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/
    “Slowing international macroeconomic conditions” is just a fancy way to say that the global economy is in big trouble.  For months, I have been warning that economic conditions are deteriorating, and we just keep getting more confirmation that we are facing the worst global downturn since the last financial crisis.  For the second time in three months, FedEx has slashed its revenue forecast for this year.  In an attempt to explain why revenue is declining, FedEx’s chief financial officer placed the blame squarely on the faltering global economy.  The following comes from CNBC…:

    The multinational package delivery service reported declining international revenue as a result of unfavorable exchange rates and the negative effects of trade battles.

    “Slowing international macroeconomic conditions and weaker global trade growth trends continue, as seen in the year-over-year decline in our FedEx Express international revenue,”
    Alan B. Graf, Jr., FedEx Corp. executive vice president and chief financial officer, said in statement.


    The use of the word “trends” implies something that has been going on for an extended period of time, and obviously FedEx doesn’t expect things to get better any time soon if they have cut profit projections twice in just the last three months.

    And FedEx certainly has a lot of company when it comes to having a gloomy outlook for the global economy.  In one recent article, Bloomberg boldly declared that the global economy is in the worst shape it has been “since the financial crisis a decade ago”…:

    read more.

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March 21, 2019 Posted by | Economics | , , | Leave a comment

South Korean Chip Exports Collapse 25% – Worst Since 2009

  • South Korean Chip Exports Collapse 25% – Worst Since 2009
    by Tyler Durden, https://www.zerohedge.com/
    South Korea’s exports are headed for another monthly drop amid slowing economic growth in China and weak demand for semiconductors, preliminary trade data for March shows.

    The preliminary data – for the first 20 days of the month – saw exports fell 4.9% from a year earlier, putting them on course for a fourth consecutive monthly decline.

    Imports in the first 20 days of March fell 3.4%, from a year earlier. Shipments to China slid 12.6% while overall sales of semiconductors, a key driver of Korea’s economy, decreased by 25& – the biggest YoY decline since March 2009…

    read more.

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March 21, 2019 Posted by | Economics | , , , | Leave a comment

Beige Book Shocker: “Semiconductor Orders From China Plunged The Most Since The Collapse Of Lehman”

  • Beige Book Shocker: “Semiconductor Orders From China Plunged The Most Since The Collapse Of Lehman”
    by Tyler Durden, https://www.zerohedge.com/
    While the latest Beige Book released earlier today carried the usual boring mix of self-serving observations by Fed officials (“slight to moderate” growth in a quarter in which the Atlanta Fed sees GDP plunging to 0.5%) and a handful of enlightening anecdotes, all of which confirmed that the US economy was rapidly slowing as expected with the word “strong” appearing 37 times, compared to 58x in the January and 83x in October while the word “weak-” rose to 34x, up from 13x seven weeks ago and 19x in October, there was one stunner contained in today’s release which may spell serious pain for stocks.

    But first we bring your attention to chip and semiconductor bellwether Micron which tumbled as much as 6.2%, its biggest decline in a month, as Wall Street grows increasingly bearish on memory-chip pricing. According to analysis by DRAMeXchange, PC DRAM contract prices will be down a whopping 30% in the first quarter, and since inventory levels are still high, there is little hope of a reversal anytime soon. The Q1 price drop would be the worst since 2011, while a shortage of low-end CPUs is exacerbating the problem, eliminating an avenue for demand growth. “The overall market has thus entered freefall, meaning that large reductions in prices aren’t going to be effective in driving sales,” according to DRAMeXchange.

    As a result, Cleveland Research cut its 2019 revenue estimate to $24 billion from $25.5 billion, citing those same DRAM price headwinds. And, as shown below, even though Micron tumbled in the past week after surging nearly 50% from its December lows, retracing nearly half of the gain, the broader semiconductor space – as represented by the SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF – has yet to follow in Micron’s footsteps; in fact it appears to be immune from the renewed concerns surrounding the global economy and the US-China trade negotiations in particular.

    read more.

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March 7, 2019 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Trade Panic: China To US Weekly Spot Rates For 40′ Containers Collapse

  • Trade Panic: China To US Weekly Spot Rates For 40′ Containers Collapse
    by Tyler Durden, https://www.zerohedge.com/
    A continued slowdown in the rate at which weekly spot rates for 40′ shipping containers are being shipped from China to North America suggests US demand for Chinese goods continues to stumble, and signals a broader economic slowdown globally looms.

    The Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) represents ocean freight prices for 40′ shipping containers, is published weekly on Sundays and represents the price of the previous week (Sunday through Saturday). Prices used in the index are rolling short term freight spot tariffs between carriers, freight forwarders, and high-volume shippers. Index values are calculated by taking the median price for all prices on active lanes with weighting by the shipper.


    read more.

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March 7, 2019 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , | Leave a comment

World’s Largest Shipping Line Says Brace For Terrible 2019!

February 25, 2019 Posted by | Economics | , , | Leave a comment

World’s Largest Shipping Company Warns 2019 Global Economic Outlook Is Worse Than 2018

  • World’s Largest Shipping Company Warns 2019 Global Economic Outlook Is Worse Than 2018
    by Tyler Durden, https://www.zerohedge.com/
    Denmark’s shipping Maersk is the world’s largest shipping company, and it is thus safe to say that what it sees in terms of global trade is indicative of real trade conditions around the globe. Which is bad news, because in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Thursday, shortly after reported dismal earnings, CEO Soren Skou said the global economic outlook for this year is looking bleaker than in 2018, which is affecting his business.

    The reason behind Skou’s pessimism is that trade tensions had led to a lot of front-loading of trade in 2018, and that effect is now disappearing, which means that the fallout of trade tensions will be far bigger this year, even as the balance between supply and demand in the industry is improving.

    Earlier in the day, Maersk reported full year earnings, with the company’s forecast EBITDA for 2019 understandably, coming in weak, and in fact the guidance missed the lowest analyst estimate, and now sees 2019 EBITDA of only $4 billion, far below the consensus estimate of $4.77 billion (range $4.11 billion to $5.40 billion).

    read more.

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February 22, 2019 Posted by | Economics | , | Leave a comment

Russia-Led Free-Trade Zone Will Soon Include 5 More Countries — De-Dollarization

  • See also:

    Russia-led Eurasian Union notches up major success in dumping dollar in favor of national currencies
    Dollar-free monetary union: Russia-led free trade zone may adopt single currency

  • Russia-Led Free-Trade Zone Will Soon Include 5 More Countries
    by https://www.rt.com/
    Free-trade agreements are expected to be signed between the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and Israel, Singapore, India, Egypt and Iran in the near future.

    That’s according to Russia’s First Deputy Minister of Industry Sergey Tsyb. He said WTO member states currently use over 7,500 non-tariff measures such as quotas, licenses, restrictions and embargos in respect of industrial goods.

    “Therefore, in our opinion, it would be very productive if we actively move towards the conclusion of agreements on the free-trade zone,”
     said the official.


    This would make it possible to promote exports within the framework of regional trade hubs, he explained. “That will definitely help in this challenging and highly sensitive situation on global markets to provide the opportunity for promotion of Russian export initiatives.”

    The EEU, which is based on the Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, was established in 2015. It was later joined by Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. In 2016, Vietnam officially became the first non-regional country to join the bloc. The union is designed to ensure the free movement of goods, services, capital and workers between member countries.


    read more.

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February 11, 2019 Posted by | Economics | , , , , | Leave a comment

Keiser Report: Are We Back on a Gold Standard? (E1342)

  • RT Published on Feb 7, 2019
    Check Keiser Report website for more: http://www.maxkeiser.com/ In this episode of the Keiser Report from Mexico, Max and Stacy discuss central banks on a gold buying spree and what that suggests is in our global monetary and trade policy future. The volume of gold buying has not been seen since 1967 when the world was, in fact, on a gold standard. Does this indicate we are, indeed, back on a quasi-gold standard if USD trade surplus is being converted into hard money, regardless of formal agreements to that effect? In the second half, Max talks to Bill Barhydt of Abra about their new product which will essentially create a bitcoin standard for the world by turning BTC into a unit of account.

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February 8, 2019 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , | Leave a comment

THE GREAT WALL CONTINUES TO CRACK: China’s Golden Solution

  • ITM Trading Published on Jan 25, 2019
    Link to slides and sources: https://www.itmtrading.com/blog/great… 
    Trade wars continue between the US and China, the two largest global economies. In the US, they say the trade war is having an impact on China’s economy, which is certainly true, but on May 11, 2017, China’s shorter-term debt interest rates rose above longer term debt in a yield curve inversion, one of the most accurate predictors of a recession. So perhaps the trade war merely escalated the decline that was already in process. On December 4, 2018, the US Treasury market experienced a yield curve inversion, which, in my opinion, is a confirmation that we have entered a riskier and more elevated level in the deflationary cycle. JP Morgan said that “Only gold is money, everything else is credit” J. Paul Getty said, “If you owe the bank $100 that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.” Since 2008, we’ve watched governments underwriting bank losses under the premise of “stimulating” the economy. It’s not working and I’m thinking, we all have a problem. Got gold?

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January 26, 2019 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

China Digs In on Sea Conflict with US

  • RT America Published on Jan 22, 2019
    In the long dispute of the South China Sea, Beijing claims most of the sea as its territory but countries like Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan say parts of the maritime pathway belong to them. Former Naval Intelligence Officer John Jordan joins Rick Sanchez to explain how oil, shipping lanes and fishing rights are keeping Beijing from giving up the South China Sea and how the US is right to challenge them on it.

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January 23, 2019 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , | Leave a comment

South China Sea, Strait of Taiwan Conflict

  • RT America Published on Jan 21, 2019
    Rick Sanchez discusses the rising military tensions in the South China Sea. Then RT America’s Dan Cohen reports on the joint US-UK military drills in the Taiwan Strait, much to the consternation of China. He explains the strategic importance of the South China Sea and how the possibility of military confrontation there is complicating global economics.

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January 22, 2019 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , | Comments Off on South China Sea, Strait of Taiwan Conflict

China Economy Will Suffer Without HUGE WIN In U.S. Trade Deal!

January 19, 2019 Posted by | Economics | , , , , | Comments Off on China Economy Will Suffer Without HUGE WIN In U.S. Trade Deal!

Global Economy Flashes Red As China Shipping Rates Collapse

  • Global Economy Flashes Red As China Shipping Rates Collapse
    by Tyler Durden, https://www.zerohedge.com/
    dramatic and sudden slowdown in the rate at which numerous commodities are being shipped to China suggests slowing demand for raw materials in the world’s second-largest economy, and signals a wider economic slowdown globally looms.

    “Recent shipping data has turned negative with charter rates across all sectors notably weaker compared to late November levels,” Morgan Stanley analysts Fotis Giannakoulis, Qianlei Fan, and Max Yaras wrote.

    “While such moves are common, the synchronized decline may be a warning for Chinese commodity demand.”

    Morgan Stanley continues:

    During the last six weeks almost all shipping sectors have seen charter rates move lower, raising concerns about the health of underlying demand.

    * The Baltic Dry Index is down 17% since mid-December (Exhibit 6) with all vessel types earning lower rates compared to a year ago 
    despite the sharp drop in dry bulk supply growth.


    read more.

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January 18, 2019 Posted by | Economics | , , | Comments Off on Global Economy Flashes Red As China Shipping Rates Collapse