Socio-Economics History Blog

Socio-Economics & History Commentary

Jim Rogers: Turmoil Is Coming. Major Financial Market Collapse!

  • Jim Rogers: Turmoil Is Coming
    by Adam Taggart, http://www.peakprosperity.com/  
    Two years since his last interview with us, investor Jim Rogers returns and notes that the risks he warned of last time have only gotten worse. In this week’s podcast, Jim shares his rational for predicting:

    * increased wealth confiscation by the central planners
    * a pending major financial market collapse
    * gold’s return as the preferred safe haven investment
    * more oil price weakness, followed by a trend reversal
    * Russia’s rebound
    * a China bubble reckoning
    * agriculture’s long-term value

    I suspect in the next year or two we will see some kind of major, major problems in the world financial markets. I would suspect when we have this correction, it’s going to cause central banks to panic. There’s going to come a time when there is not much the central banks can do when they have lost all credibility. When governments have lost all credibility. They will print and spend and borrow, but there comes a time when people are just going to say We don’t want to play this game anymore. And at that point, the world has serious, serious problems because there’s nothing to rescue us.

    I suspect the next economic/financial collapse will be the one they can’t deal with. But, if somehow they are miracle workers, be very, very careful. I would be worried about 2022 – 2023 then. The game will definitely be up if it’s not up this time around.

    read more.

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June 25, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Jim Rickards: Bond Market Liquidity Dangerously Low

Click on image to play the interview.

Click on image to play the interview.

  • Jim Rickards: Bond Market Liquidity Dangerously Low
    by Jon Ward, Physical Gold Fund, Released on 6/22/15 (Recorded on 6/17/15)
    Comprehensive Interview with Jim Rickards 
    Topics covered:

    *FOMC Meeting Analysis – No rate increase in 2015
    *Dangerously low liquidity in bond market
    *Back in the 80’s-90’s liquidity in the bond market was a given, virtually any amount could get filled – this is no longer the case
    *Today large orders in the bond markets can take days or weeks to fill
    *Lack of liquidity combined with High Frequency Trading (HFT) and selling volume is an environment where flash crashes are likely
    *Warnings are coming from BIS, IMF, Federal Reserve governors regarding lack of liquidity
    *When crashes occur there is always collateral damage – there are no circuit breakers in the bond markets so if there is an extreme panic we may see market closures
    *Panics can spill over into other markets – we could see a bond market crash with a rising gold price
    *Contagion and spillovers to other markets are typical behavior in a crisis
    *Examples of hard assets: Land, Art, Physical Gold Fund
    *State Backed hacking of US Government Employee Files
    *Compromise of employee files does represent a national security threat
    *Any portfolio reliant on all digital related assets is vulnerable to being completely wiped out
    *South China Sea – China is claiming the entire South China Sea by creating artificial reefs and islands
    *The US is bound by treaty and is obligated to act in the event of China war with the Philippines
    *IMF SDR’s versus sovereign fiat currency
    *Thoughts on gold confiscation happening in USA, EU, and Switzerland
    *Why Switzerland is the best jurisdiction in the world to store precious metals

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June 25, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Turmoil Coming to the Markets: Prepare for Bear Market in Bonds

Global economic, financial and currency meltdown approaching!

Global economic, financial and currency meltdown approaching!

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June 24, 2015 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , | Leave a comment

First Strike Capability: Gold or War

Remember the Golden Rule: He who has the gold makes the rules! Got physical gold yet?

Remember the Golden Rule: He who has the gold makes the rules! Got physical gold yet?

  • Gold is the perfect debt extinguisher. To remove the debt burden on countries, all governments need to do is to revalue the price of gold many folds higher. But first they have to accumulate physical gold and lots of it.
  • Part of the endtimes plan for the ushering in of the Anti-Christ, as I understand it, is that he will solve the global economic and financial crisis; and bring about a period of (3.5 years) prosperity. And how ill he do it? The plan is via gold price revaluation and debt forgiveness.
  • When the price of gold goes up say 100x (or whatever multiple necessary), governments’ physical gold holding amount will increase in value by 100x. The countries are now richer and debt is no longer a problem. Debt forgiveness for the sheeple is easily achieved.
  • First Strike Capability: Gold or War
    by , http://deviantinvestor.com/  
    We’ll circle back to the first strike later.  Let’s frame the problem:

    The War on Cash:
    Charles Hugh Smith brings clarity to the issue:

    “Why are governments suddenly so keen to ban physical cash? The answer appears to be that the banks and government authorities are anticipating bail-ins, steeply negative interest rates and hefty fees on cash, and they want to close any opening regular depositors might have to escape these forms of officially sanctioned theft.  The escape from bail-ins and fees on cash deposits is physical cash, and hence the sudden flurry of calls to eliminate cash as a relic of a bygone age—that is, an age when commoners had some way to safeguard their money from bail-ins and bankers’ control.”


    “The benefits to banks and governments by eliminating cash are self-evident:

    1. Every financial transaction can be taxed
    2. Every financial transaction can be charged a fee
    3. Bank runs are eliminated”
  • There is a cliff dead ahead: Charles Hugh Smith
    “Investors in stocks, bonds, and real estate are being herded off the cliff by the Federal Reserve.  The name of the game in the New Normal is to force investors large and small into risk assets.  When the risk assets blow up, the herd plunges headlong over the cliff en masse.”

    Officially Sanctioned Nonsense:
    From the Wall Street Journal and the IMF:

    “The wisest course for some countries – the U.S. among them – would be to do nothing at all to reduce their debt burdens.”

    A Drastic Need For “Greater Fools:”
    From the Burning Platform and John Hussman:
    “When everyone on Wall Street is using the same algorithms in their HFT supercomputers, and John Q. Public isn’t even in the market, who will these supercomputers sell to when they all get the sell signal at the same time?”

    “Investors have responded to zero interest rates by driving stock valuations up to the point where expected market returns over the coming decade are also zero.”

    “Once market internals have deteriorated, the exit rule for bubbles is that you only get out if you panic before everyone else does.”

    “Frankly, history suggests that a rather ordinary completion to the present market cycle would involve the S&P 500 losing more than half of its value.”

    read more.

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June 24, 2015 Posted by | Economics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Lindsey Williams, Martin Armstrong And Alex Jones All Warn About What Is Coming In The Fall Of 2015

  • Lindsey Williams, Martin Armstrong And Alex Jones All Warn About What Is Coming In The Fall Of 2015
    by Michael Snyder, http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/  
    Not since the financial crash of 2008 have so many prominent people issued such urgent warnings about a specific time period.  Almost daily now, really big names are coming out with chilling predictions about what they believe is going to happen during the second half of 2015.  But it isn’t just that these people have a “bad feeling” about things.  The truth is that we are witnessing a confluence of circumstances and events in the second half of this year that is unprecedented.  This is something that I covered in a previous article that went mega-viral all over the Internet entitled “7 Key Events That Are Going To Happen By The End Of September“.  Personally, I have never been more concerned about any period of time than I am about the second half of 2015.  And as you will see below, I am definitely not alone.

    Just a few days ago, I received an email that contained a chilling message from Lindsey Williams.  You can view the same message that came to my email right here.  According to Lindsey Williams, the elite insider that he is in contact with told him that there will be a global financial collapse between September and December of this year…

    WARNING!
    From Lindsey Williams: I just received an email from my Elite friend.
    My Elite friend indicated that they have a World Wide Financial Collapse scheduled between September and the end of December 2015


    You may have just THREE (3) months to prepare!

    read more.

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June 23, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Signs Of Financial Turmoil In Europe, China And The United States

Global financial storm is coming!

Global financial storm is coming.

  • Signs Of Financial Turmoil In Europe, China And The United States
    by Michael Snyder, http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/
    As we move toward the second half of 2015, signs of financial turmoil are appearing all over the globe.  In Greece, a full blown bank run is happening right now.  Approximately 2 billion euros were pulled out of Greek banks in just the past three days, Barclays says that capital controls are “imminent” unless a debt deal is struck, and there are reports that preparations are being made for a “bank holiday” in Greece.  Meanwhile, Chinese stocks are absolutely crashing.  The Shanghai Composite Index was down more than 13 percent this week alone.  That was the largest one week decline since the collapse of Lehman Brothers.  In the U.S., stocks aren’t crashing yet, but we just witnessed one of the largest one week outflows of capital from the bond markets that we have ever witnessed.  Slowly but surely, we are starting to see the smart money head for the exits.  As one Swedish fund manager put it recently, everyone wants “to avoid being caught on the wrong side of markets once the herd realizes stocks are over-valued“.

    I don’t think that most people understand how serious things have gotten already.  In Greece, so much money has been pulled out of the banks that the European Central Bank admits that Greek banks may not be able to open on Monday… 

    The European Central Bank told a meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Thursday that it was not sure if Greek banks, which have been suffering large daily deposit outflows, would be able to open on Monday, officials with knowledge of the talks said.

    Greek savers have withdrawn about 2 billion euros from banks over the past three days, with outflows accelerating rapidly since talks between the government and its creditors collapsed at the weekend, banking sources told Reuters.

    read more.

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June 22, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

“On the Verge of a Massive Collapse”: Ron Paul Says Stock Market Headed for a Day of Reckoning

  • “On the Verge of a Massive Collapse”: Ron Paul Says Stock Market Headed for a Day of Reckoning
    by Mac Slavo, June 20th, 2015, SHTFplan.com 
    We all know it is only a matter of time until the music stops. But Dr. Ron Paul, the former Congressman often celebrated for his outspoken views and opposition to the funny money economic system, says that day could be coming soon.

    Despite record highs in the market, former Rep. Ron Paul says the Fed’s easy money policies have left stocks and bonds are on the verge of a massive collapse.

    “I am utterly amazed at how the Federal Reserve can play havoc with the market,”
    Paul said on CNBC’s “Futures Now” referring to Thursday’s surge in stocks. The S&P 500 closed less than 1 percent off its all-time high. “I look at it as being very unstable.”

    It is easy money that is propping up the stock market and allowing Wall Street firms to capitalize on zero percent interest injections from the Federal Reserve – but is that same easy money that is stressing the system to a tipping point.

    That point could come from a rumored increase in the Fed’s interest rate – a move that would have such gravity in the current system that is could send the entire system crashing.

    Dr. Paul explains in this video: (top of post)

    Former Congressman Paul points out that the entire stock market is propped up on confidence – belief that the Fed has things under control, a false high that cannot last forever.

    However, the plunge protection team has been very effective in maintaining the illusion as long as they have, Paul charges:

    In Paul’s eyes, “the fallacy of economic planning” has created such a “horrendous bubble” in the bond market that it’s only a matter of time before the bottom falls out. And when it does, it will lead to “stock market chaos.”
    […]
    [T]here “will be a day of reckoning” that will lead to a collapse in both the fixed income and equity markets.

    read more.

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June 22, 2015 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Greek Contagion Abyss Looms – Wealth Preservation Strategies

Global currency, economic and financial storm coming!

Global currency, economic and financial storm coming!

  • Greek Contagion Abyss Looms – Wealth Preservation Strategies
    by Mark O’Byrne, http://www.goldcore.com/us/
    * Greece, EU and Banks Staring Into Abyss
    * Markets Are “Irrationally Exuberant” – Gods Punish Hubris
    * “Invisible Hand” Propping Up Sanguine Markets
    * Short Term Considerations
    * Long Term Considerations
    * Best Case Outcomes
    * Worst Case Outcomes
    * Wealth Preservation Strategies

    We are here, staring into the abyss. The greatest monetary experiment of the modern world – the euro, encapsulating the largest middle class market of consumers ever assembled is about to face its greatest test to date.

    To say anxieties are high is an understatement. Normally the broad markets will weigh up downside risk as the markets formulate and assimilate varying views on matters of importance, but not so in this case.

    The markets are decidedly sanguine, as if an “invisible hand” is propping them up, guiding them, nudging them, buying any dips in stock and bond markets and maintaining calm.

    The VIX measure of U.S. stock volatility, is languishing at 15 – not even whimpering. Gold, that other key barometer of risk, has only seen slight gains and languishes at $1,200 per ounce.

    It is as if the fire alarms have been turned off despite the fire beginning to rage. Is the Working Group on Financial Markets or Plunge Protection Team (PPT) working tirelessly through proxy Wall street banks to keep gold depressed and prop up leading benchmarks such as the S&P 500 and thus the wider markets?

    There are many that believe that Wall Street banks and central banks work closely together and coordinate policy and market interventions. They are sometimes dismissed as “conspiracy theorists.” Despite much evidence showing that banks have manipulated and rigged markets frequently.

    Ironically, those that dismiss this as conspiracy theory are the same people who would say that if the central banks and governments are not propping up and intervening in markets, they should be.

    If central banks are not already “market makers of last resort”then it seems likely that they soon will be and indeed overnight the IMF has called for this.

    Such interventions simply paper over the cracks for a period of time – meanwhile the fire is burning, the structure is crumbling and will ultimately collapse.

    read more.
Eurozone house on fire.

Eurozone house on fire.

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June 20, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bo Polny: The Biblical 7 Year Cycle & THREE DIGIT SILVER in 2016

  • Published on Jun 18, 2015
    Silver & Gold analyst Bo Polny from Gold2020Forecast joins us to talk about the 252-year stock market cycle, which can be broken down into smaller 7-year cycles, all of which points to an epic collapse in 2016. Bo says, “The cycle IS the manipulation” of the markets that we so often talk about. 


    Bo’s unique approach to precious metals analysis is regularly shared at Silver Doctors and SGT report. In this stunning interview Bo says his research indicates that the current 7-year cycle is coming to an end in the very near future,, playing out in 2016. The result of the end of the current cycle will be a massive stock market crash and the reversal of gold and silver to much, much higher prices. In fact, Bo is the only pundit we know of who is specifically predicting three digit silver in 2016.

    Bo says, “And now the cycle is about to turn… the next massive or big up leg is now set to begin… before the month of June is over a new breakout will be apparent.”

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June 20, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , | Leave a comment

World Renowned Economist Warns Of Coming Crash Of All Crashes

  • Published on Jun 13, 2015
    One of the item’s on Bilderberg agenda is the elite’s ongoing war on cash, and joining the show to talk about this is economic forecaster Martin Armstrong. 


    http://armstrongeconomics.com/
  • The Satanic plan is: global economic, financial and currency collapse; and WW3. Got physical gold/silver yet?
http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/30862

Click on image for article.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/30671

Click on image for article.

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June 14, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bond Crash Across the World as Deflation Trade Goes Horribly Wrong

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  • Bond crash across the world as deflation trade goes horribly wrong
    by , http://www.telegraph.co.uk/  
    Markets ignored clear warnings in Europe and America that the money supply is catching fire, signalling a surge of inflation later this year.

    The global deflation trade is unwinding with a vengeance. Yields on 10-year Bunds blew through 1pc today, spearheading a violent repricing of credit across the world.

    The scale is starting to match the ‘taper tantrum’ of mid-2013 when the US Federal Reserve issued its first gentle warning that quantitative easing would not last forever, and that the long-feared inflexion point was nearing in the international monetary cycle.

    Paper losses over the last three months have reached $1.2 trillion. Yields have jumped by 175 basis points in Indonesia, 160 in South Africa, 150 in Turkey, 130 in Mexico, and 80 in Australia.

    The epicentre is in the eurozone as the “QE” bet goes horribly wrong. Bund yields hit 1.05pc this morning before falling back in wild trading, up 100 basis points since March. French, Italian, and Spanish yields have moved in lockstep.

    read more.

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June 12, 2015 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , | Leave a comment

Gregory Mannarino: The Collapse Is Happening Now

  • Gregory Mannarino: The Collapse Is Happening Now
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
    Financial analyst Gregory Mannarino says time is short for the next financial calamity.  Mannarino contends, “Not only are things are getting close, but we are here now.  This is it. . . . The collapse is now.  Look at what is going on. . . .Despite actions by world central banks, which are unprecedented, we are still going nowhere.  The economy is going nowhere.  The proof is simply in the money velocity.  The issue with the money velocity . . . or at least one of the reasons we are not seeing massive inflation, is the cash is not moving.  Once cash starts to move, and it will move, all of those extra bills that have been printed out of thin air are going to be chasing the same amount of goods.  You do not need to be a rocket scientist to figure this out.”  Mannarino goes on to explain, “Cash will leave the debt market, and that will push yields higher.  That will put pressure in equities.  This is a reverse of what we see now in inflating this super bubble here.  There is a super bubble in debt.  There is a super bubble in stocks.  When all this cash starts to move, it is going to look for a place to go, and it is going to move into commodities.  As this is occurring, all these bills digital or otherwise, that are around the world . . . when people see the value of currency start to drop precipitously, they are going to come back here to the United States.  Massive amount of bills are going to chase the same amount of goods and whamo–there’s your inflation.”


    Last week, Mannarino said the stock market had topped, and it has nowhere to go but down.  Why?  Mannarino says Dow Transports need to be rising in order to sustain a rising stock market.  With all the gains of 2015 now wiped out, Mannarino says, “You would expect the Dow Transports to be rising with the equity markets or stock market.  We are not seeing that at all.  There is an absolute disconnect here. . . . The Dow Transports have begun a clear leg down, and unless something dramatic happens to bring the Transports back up, this bull market is over.”

    read more.
Money Velocity 1929 to 2014.

Money Velocity 1929 to 2014.

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June 12, 2015 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Get Used to Selloffs, Central Bankers Say as They Fret about the Terrifying Moment When Liquidity Evaporates

Global financial tsunami coming??!

Global financial tsunami coming??!

  • Get Used to Selloffs, Central Bankers Say as They Fret about the Terrifying Moment When Liquidity Evaporates
    by , http://wolfstreet.com/  
    Axel Weber, president of the Bundesbank and member of the ECB’s Governing Council until he quit both in 2011 to protest the ECB’s bond purchases, quickly landed a new gig: chairman of UBS. WHIRR went the revolving door. From this perch, he warned in 2012 that the easy-money policies and the expansion of central-bank balance sheets would lead to “new turmoil in the financial markets.” Now that the turmoil has arrived, he’s at it again.

    “Volatility and repricing” – a euphemism for losses – are “part of getting back to normal,” he told NBC. We should get used to it, he said, echoing what ECB President Mario Draghi had said a couple of days ago. So no big deal. However, he was fretting “about the liquidity in the market, in particular under stress situations.”

    Despite unleashing a deafening round of QE on the European markets, the ECB has watched helplessly as government bonds have done the opposite of what they should have done: Prices have plunged, and yields have spiked. The German 10-year yield soared in seven weeks from 0.05% to over 1% on Thursday, before settling down a bit. And it wasn’t even a “stress situation.”

    US Treasuries have sold off sharply as well since the beginning of February, with the 10-year yield jumping from 1.65% to 2.31%, the worst selloff since the taper tantrum in 2013.

    Now one word is on the official panic list: “liquidity.” They’re thinking about the terrifying moment when it suddenly evaporates. 

    Weber blamed central banks for the liquidity issues in the global bond markets. They’ve been buying “vast amounts of assets and putting them on their balance sheets”; not just government bonds but also corporate bonds. Since central banks “buy and hold,” they “take some liquidity out of the market.”

    read more.

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June 9, 2015 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Central Banks Are Losing Control Of The Financial Markets

Global_Economic_Crisis

  • The Central Banks Are Losing Control Of The Financial Markets
    by Michael Snyder, http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/  
    Every great con game eventually comes to an end.  For years, global central banks have been manipulating the financial marketplace with their monetary voodoo.  Somehow, they have convinced investors around the world to invest tens of trillions of dollars into bonds that provide a return that isway under the real rate of inflation.  For quite a long time I have been insisting that this is highly irrational.  Why would any rational investor want to put money into investments that will make them poorer on a purchasing power basis in the long run?  And when any central bank initiates a policy of “quantitative easing”, any rational investor should immediately start demanding a higher rate of return on the bonds of that nation.  Creating money out of thin air and pumping into the financial system devalues all existing money and creates inflation.  Therefore, rational investors should respond by driving interest rates up.  Instead, central banks told everyone that interest rates would be forced down, and that is precisely what happened.  But now things have shifted.  Investors are starting to behave more rationally and the central banks are starting to lose control of the financial markets, and that is a very bad sign for the rest of 2015.

    And of course it isn’t just bond yields that are out of control.  No matter how hard they try, financial authorities in Europe can’t seem to fix the problems in Greece, and the problems in Italy, Spain, Portugal and France just continue to escalate as well.  This week, Greece became the very first nation to miss a payment to the IMF since the 1980s.  We’ll discuss that some more in a moment.

    Over in Asia, stocks are fluctuating very wildly.  The Shanghai Composite Index plunged by 5.4 percent on Thursday before regaining all of those losses and actually closing with a gain of0.8 percent.  When we see this kind of extreme volatility, it is a very bad sign.  It is during times of extreme volatility that markets crash.

    read more.

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June 8, 2015 Posted by | Economics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

China Containerized Freight Index Collapses

Container_cargo-ship_crashing_tilting

  • China Containerized Freight Index Collapses
    by Wolf Richter, http://wolfstreet.com/  
    It could be that Chinese stock market participants have no idea that there is something wrong beneath the officially rosy covers. Or they might already know in granular unofficial detail, and fearing the worst, they’re wagering everything they have, plus some, on stocks to get rich quick while they still can. They’re opening up brokerage accounts at record pace and borrowing on margin to ride the wave. If the limits in China get in the way, they head to Hong Kong to set up trading accounts and borrow even more.

    It has worked so far. The Shanghai Composite Index jumped 8.9% this week and 146% over the past 12 months. It closed above 5,000 for the first time since 2008. The valuation of companies with a primary listing in China skyrocketed by $4.7 trillion this year. People are feeling flush and are hoping for a another governmental tsunami of money to bail them out. What transpired in other countries over the past six years is now transpiring in China in condensed form. And the countdown for the crash has started [read… The Dumbest Man in China].

    One thing the Chinese authorities cannot do is crank up the global economy and demand for Chinese goods. These goods are shipped by container to the rest of the world. But containerized freight rates from China have totally collapsed.

    The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), operated by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange and sponsored by the Chinese Ministry of Communications, has not been put through the beautification wringer that other more publicly visible statistics, such as GDP growth, are subject to. It tracks spot and contractual rates for all Chinese container ports. And it plunged 3.2% this week to a multi-year low of 862, down 20% from February.

    The trajectory of this terrible 3-month plunge:  

    read more.

China-Containerized-Freight-index-2015-06-05

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June 6, 2015 Posted by | Economics | , , , , | Leave a comment

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