Socio-Economics History Blog

Socio-Economics & History Commentary

Goldman Warns of Looming Financial Crash as Monetary Stimulus Ends

  • Goldman Warns of Looming Financial Crash as Monetary Stimulus Ends
    by https://sputniknews.com/
    US financial markets might be heading for a collapse as a result of the gradual removal of accommodative monetary policies and the end of the speculative rally, which has caused a rift between stock valuations and growth in the real economy.

    Kristian Rouz – One of the world’s largest investment banks, Goldman Sachs, says the stunning rally in US stocks might come to a dramatic end, as the artificial bull market is wearing down amid the ongoing removal of central bank stimulus. Goldman’s bear-market anticipation index has reached its pre-dot-com crash and pre-Great Recession levels, meaning a reversal in stock market dynamics is worth anticipating in the near-term.

    The consequences of a stock-market crash in the real economy are hard to predict under current circumstances. On the one hand, a sudden decline in stock value typically hurts non-financial enterprises as they lose capitalisation and operational flexibility amid a liquidity squeeze.

    On the other hand, given that the stock market is currently significantly overpriced, and stock valuations have far outperformed real economy expansion and are purely speculative, a financial market crash might have only limited negative consequences for the real economy.

    In a separate report, Citibank says the chances on a market correction in the coming three months are currently at 45 percent.

    However, Goldman’s Bear Market Index is at 67 percent currently, and the bankers say tepid inflation and structural issues are bringing the probability of a recession closer. However, if the central bank abstains from further interest-rate-hikes, a cyclical recession is likely to define the next year’s economic developments.

    Overstretched stock valuations are the Goldman’s chief concern. The very low interest rates had driven an unprecedented stock market rally in the post-Great Recession period, and since Donald Trump was elected in November, the rally intensified due to his business-friendly attitudes and the still-loose monetary environment (despite several quarter-percent increases since December 2015).

    Typically, the last three months of stock market expansion see gains of 7 percent, followed by a three-month 7-percent correction, with a 20-25-percent crash yielding a tumultuous 6-month period of little certainty.

    read more.

end

September 19, 2017 Posted by | Economics | , , , | Comments Off on Goldman Warns of Looming Financial Crash as Monetary Stimulus Ends

Major Market Shift Happening Now | Silver Guru David Morgan

  • SilverDoctors Published on Sep 1, 2017 
    A major shift is transpiring in the markets, silver guru David Morgan tells Silver Doctors. The gold mining shares are leading the bullion. This is extremely bullish, says Morgan. And the stock market is topping. He sees the stock market will pull back in the next few months. Dubin expects a 10% correction by the end of the year. The bottom line: Money is moving out of the stock market and into the gold market. Morgan and Dubin both think gold could hit $1400 by the year end.

end

September 4, 2017 Posted by | Economics | , , | Comments Off on Major Market Shift Happening Now | Silver Guru David Morgan

Alert: Dollar & Markets at Risk to Plummet – John Williams

  • Alert: Dollar & Markets at Risk to Plummet – John Williams
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday Release)
    Economist John Williams is putting out a rare “Alert” on his popular ShadowStats.com newsletter. What does Williams see that scares him?  Williams explains, “There are several factors.  Number one, I think we are at risk of an extreme market reaction just tied to the economy slowing down unexpectedly against headline expectations.  That is going to mess up the Fed’s planning for raising rates and liquidating their balance sheet.  That is going to force them back to quantitative easing (money printing).  That, in turn, will savage the dollar.   As the dollar plummets, so will U.S. stock prices.  They are heavily supported by the influx of capital from abroad. . . . Given the underlying fundamentals in the markets and in the economy, I think all the components are in place for one of the great financial panics of all time.”

    Williams says this is why gold is poised to go up. Williams says, “Gold is the ultimate hedge against all the craziness in the world and very bad financial markets, dangerous currency markets and bad inflation.  Physical gold is the ultimate hedge because it retains its value over time. . . . I have been looking for it to go higher, and it is going to go a lot higher as the circumstances deteriorate.”

    At some point, Williams says, “You are going to see a plunge in the dollar. . . . All of a sudden, they are going to stop raising rates . . . and as the economy deteriorates and puts more financial stress on the banking system, they’ve got to go back to quantitative easing. They can’t let the banking system fail.  They have propped up the dollar, but you are going to see a plunge in the dollar.  The fed does not have to actually move to quantitative easing for the dollar to tank, you just have to have the markets shift in sentiment to that effect, and you will see the dollar tank.”

    read more.

end

August 21, 2017 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Alert: Dollar & Markets at Risk to Plummet – John Williams

EXPOSED: The Elite’s Plan to Freeze the Financial System

  • EXPOSED: The Elite’s Plan to Freeze the Financial System
    by , https://dailyreckoning.com/
    Today’s complacent markets are faced with a number of potentially destabilizing shocks. Any one of them could potentially lead to another financial crisis. And the next crisis could see draconian measures by governments that most people are not prepared for today.

    You’ll see what I mean in a moment. But first, what are the catalysts that possibly trigger the next financial crisis?

    First off, a debt ceiling crisis is just over a month away. If the ceiling isn’t raised by Sept. 29, the federal government is likely to default on at least some of its bills. If a deal isn’t reached, it could rock markets and possibly trigger a major recession.

    Given Washington’s current political paralysis and intense partisan infighting surrounding President Trump, it’s far from certain that a deal will be reached.

    Second, despite some official comments over the weekend downplaying the odds of a war with North Korea, a shooting war remains a very real possibility.

    North Korea’s Kim is determined to acquire nuclear weapons that can threaten the lower 48 U.S. states, and Trump is equally determined to prevent that from happening.

    Third, a trade war between the U.S. and China seems imminent. Trump has backed off his campaign pledges to label China a currency manipulator and an unequal trading partner. And today, Trump is expected to present his case for sanctions against China. China would likely retaliate, and that could ultimately result in a 10–20% “maxi-devaluation” of the yuan, perhaps by early next year.

    That would likely cause a stock market rout. Since China devalued in August 2015, markets fell hundreds of points in single sessions. And that was a much smaller devaluation, less than 2%. And if markets collapse from either of these scenarios — which is entirely possible — governments will move dramatically to contain the damage.

    read more.

end

August 18, 2017 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , | Comments Off on EXPOSED: The Elite’s Plan to Freeze the Financial System

Lynette Zang: They Want to Get Rid of Cash. Financial System Cannot be Trusted — Gold $9,300 & Silver $625

  • Lynette Zang: They Want to Get Rid of Cash. Financial System Cannot be Trusted — Gold $9,300, Silver $625 Now
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
    Market analyst Lynette Zang says get ready for a “money standard shift.” A reset in how we buy and sell things is being put into place. Zang contends, “Look at the crypto currency area because they know that’s where they want to go. They have to take us there so they can get rid of cash, and they can control everything directly. . . . Generally speaking, all these new crypto coins that are coming out and are making lots of money and people marry that money because of nominal confusion, what is really happening is they are preparing us . . . for a money standard shift.”


    Zang explains that the U.S. dollar has lost about 96% of its value since inception of the Federal Reserve, and its value is “nearing the bottom. . . . So, there is no place else to go but to digital currency,” says Zang.

    On interest rates, Zang says with all the massive debt out there globally, rates cannot be allowed to rise, and central bankers “need interest rates to be negative.” Zang says, “Interest rates will not go up too much further because that will trigger the derivative market unless they are ready for the shift . . . because all that debt keeps coming due. It’s not like they are paying that debt off, they are just rolling it into additional debt. Rising interest rates will cost everybody more money.”

    If rates go up to around 4%, Zang contends, “That would be a trigger and cause a derivative event that will implode all the markets.”

    Zang says we are headed towards an undemocratic technocratic financial system. Zang explains, “Technocrats don’t care about people, they care about systems. That’s what the most important thing is. The formulas that guide all of those systems is not how a democracy works. . . . Essentially, what they are trying to do is get all wealth held in cyberspace and the title to all wealth held in cyberspace. Then the “Smart Contract” can immediately transfer that title. You can go to the mall and spend the equity in your house.”

    Zang warns that central banks could make a big mistake and lose control quickly. Zang says, “They could lose control because it’s all about confidence. Why do they keep testing all of this confidence? People have been losing a lot of confidence in the governments and central banks. Why do they need a trustless system? They could lose control.”

    Zang says every fiat currency will reset against gold and silver, and if it happened today, she estimates “gold would be more than $9,300 per ounce” and “silver would be more than $625 per ounce.”  Zang says, given all the unpayable debt in the world, those are conservative estimates.
https://www.rt.com/business/377307-jim-rogers-currency-control-cash/

The plan to microchip everyone with RFID ‘666’ is being implemented now. Click on image for article.

end

August 17, 2017 Posted by | Economics, EndTimes, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Egon von Greyerz: Big Money Going into Gold

  • Egon von Greyerz: Big Money Going into Gold
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 
    Financial expert Egon von Greyerz (EvG) says the central bankers did not fix the problem that caused the last global economic meltdown. EvG points out, “Did they save the system?  For ten years they did, but they didn’t save it.  They made the problem a lot bigger.  Global debt has gone from $120 trillion in 2006 to $225 trillion today.  Central banks have printed another $18 trillion.  So, the situation right now is a lot worse than it was then.  So, the bubble is much bigger.  And remember last time, interest rates worldwide were around 5% to 6% ten years ago. . . .Today, they are zero or negative in many countries.  They cannot achieve anything by adjusting interest rates.  Well, they can make them more negative, but people are not going to give them any money with negative interest rates.”


    EvG has decades of experience as a top executive in the European banking system, and he contends, “The ECB risks are increasing exponentially. Greece is still bankrupt and will remain bankrupt.  If you go around to all the other countries, Ireland, France and all the other countries . . .  the problem is just a lot bigger today than it was.  They have done a great job in fooling all of the people most of the time . . . when the risk is greater than ever.  It shows if you tell people lies often enough, people will believe it, and that’s what’s happened.  This is why when this ends, it’s going to end in tears.  It’s not going to end with a slow gradual process of deterioration.  It’s going to end with a bang.  I am not a pessimist.  I am just looking at risk, and the risks are so clear to me. This is a risk that no one can actually do anything about because there is nothing you can do for debts that cannot be repaid. . . . We are living in a lie, and you cannot live on a lie forever.”

    EvG vaults gold for wealthy clients in secret vaults in Switzerland and in Asia. What is he seeing first hand from his global clients?  EvG says, “It’s interesting that we are seeing big money now starting to actually come into the gold area. They are increasing (holdings) or coming in for the first time, which I would say is quite new, in the last few weeks.  People are sensing it.  People understand what’s happening.  We have our clients we’ve had for the last 15 years, and they are increasing their holdings, but we have new money coming in, and it hasn’t been on the scale we are seeing now. . . . There are people that smell things before they happen.  People don’t know why, but people are sensing something is going to happen.”

end

August 14, 2017 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Egon von Greyerz: Big Money Going into Gold

The Market Will Fall By 50%-70% As The Petro-Dollar Comes To End: Steve St. Angelo

August 11, 2017 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on The Market Will Fall By 50%-70% As The Petro-Dollar Comes To End: Steve St. Angelo

“Mystery” Central Bank Buyer Revealed: SNB Now Owns A Record $84 Billion In US Stocks

  • “Mystery” Central Bank Buyer Revealed: SNB Now Owns A Record $84 Billion In US Stocks
    by Tyler Durden, http://www.zerohedge.com/
    In the second quarter of the year, one in which unlike in Q1 fund flows showed a persistent and perplexing outflow from US stocks and into European and Emerging Markets, a trading desk rumor emerged that even as institutional traders dumped stocks and retail investors piled into ETFs, a “mystery” central bank was quietly bidding up risk assets by aggressively buying stocks. And no, it was not the BOJ: the Japanese Central Bank’s interventions in the stock market are familiar to all by now, and for the most part the BOJ keeps its interventions local, mostly propping up Japanese stocks, whether the Nikkei 225 or the Topix.

    The answer was revealed this morning when the hedge fund known as the “Swiss National Bank” posted its latest 13-F holdings. What it showed is that, as rumored, the Swiss National Bank had gone on another aggressive buying spree in the second quarter, and following its record purchases in the first quarter, the central bank boosted its total equity holdings to an all time high $84.3 billion, up 5% or $4.1 billion from the $80.4 billion at the end of the first quarter.

    read more.

end

August 10, 2017 Posted by | Economics | , , | Comments Off on “Mystery” Central Bank Buyer Revealed: SNB Now Owns A Record $84 Billion In US Stocks

Mike “Mish” Shedlock: Lots of Triggers Could Tank Global Financial System

  • Mike “Mish” Shedlock: Lots of Triggers Could Tank Global Financial System
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
    Economic writer Michael “Mish” Shedlock is seeing bubbles just about everywhere. Let’s start with the stock market. Shedlock contends, “Anyone who is thinking rationally knows this is a bubble. . . . On a median PE basis and a median earnings basis, the stock market is at an all-time high—an all-time high now. It exceeds the dotcom bubble. It exceeds the housing bubble. It exceeds 1929. Only the top 10% does not exceed the dotcom mania that we had in 2000. We know these bubbles have to correct. The question is when. The bigger they get, the bigger the collapse and the more pain that is going to be felt.”


    Shedlock says you can blame the Fed for all the bubbles. Shedlock explains, “They wouldn’t let it go. They kept it up with round after round of QE (money printing). They inflated these things beyond belief. They didn’t know when to stop, and of course, they caused these bubbles in the first place by keeping interest rates too low for too long following the dotcom crash in 2000 and 2001. We replaced that with a housing bubble after that crashed, and now, we have replaced that with an “everything bubble.” About the only thing that is not in a bubble right now is gold and gold miners. Everything else is in a bubble. . . . The Fed is likely to cut interest rates again when the economy goes into recession. It’s been about nine years since we’ve had one. This is very long in the tooth, and the Fed is very late in hiking (interest rates). I don’t know what throws this over. I don’t know what drives this thing over the hill. Perhaps it’s just exhaustion. When it comes to exhaustion, think about the housing bubble in 2006. We went from people standing in line overnight in Florida, not to get a condo, but the right to enter a lottery to buy a condo — amazing. Guess what, one week later, the lines were gone. No one wanted the things. I think we are going to have some sort of moment like that where people are going to realize ‘what a bubble, I need to cash out.’ Of course, everyone can’t cash out at the same time, and this is what we are going to see.”

    Shedlock also says there is a bubble in the bond market, but he is most fearful of the junk bond sector. Can junk bonds take the whole system down if they blow up? Shedlock says, “Absolutely, and in fact, it is likely the junk bond market that is propping up the equity market. If you go back to 2009, you had corporations that could not get funding. Now, everything can get funding.”

    read more.

end

August 10, 2017 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Mike “Mish” Shedlock: Lots of Triggers Could Tank Global Financial System

Rob Kirby: Economic Collapse, Currency Devaluation, Gold, Silver …

Click on image to download MP3 interview.

  • Rob Kirby: Economic Collapse, Currency Devaluation, Gold, Silver …
    by Turd Ferguson, http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/
    What great timing to have Rob Kirby back for an A2A webinar. Rob’s vast experience provides a unique perspective on the failure of The Generally Accepted Narrative for 2017 as well as some wisdom on where we are headed from here. Among the topics discussed today:

    * Rob’s thoughts on how The Fed was able to institute ZIRP and why rates remain historically low.
    * Why the POSX is falling so rapidly in 2017.
    * What message could be gleaned from Terry Duffy’s appearance on FBN two weeks ago.
    * Why Rob prefers physical gold and silver to owning the mining shares.
    * And much, much more!

    This was an incredibly informative presentation and we should all be grateful that Rob so generously shared his time today. Please try to carve out some time to give this podcast a thorough listen.

end

August 7, 2017 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Rob Kirby: Economic Collapse, Currency Devaluation, Gold, Silver …

Former Fed Chairman Warns THIS is a Bigger Threat Than the Stock Bubble and Will Collapse!

August 3, 2017 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , | Comments Off on Former Fed Chairman Warns THIS is a Bigger Threat Than the Stock Bubble and Will Collapse!

The Elites Are Jumping Ship As The Financial Collapse Draws Near

  • The Elites Are Jumping Ship As The Financial Collapse Draws Near
    by Mac Slavo, July 27th, 2017, http://www.SHTFplan.com
    It’s easy to think of the political and financial elites who run our world as lofty and all powerful. They command dangerous governments that can wield devastating weapons, central banks that treat our economy like a rigged casino, media conglomerates that pacify the minds of the public, and unbelievably wealthy corporations that have concentrated wealth to an unprecedented degree.

    However, they’re certainly not invincible, and the systems of control that they’ve created are rapidly diminishing. Most notably, they seem all to aware of the fact that the global economy is headed for a crash. On the rare occasion where you can catch one of the elites in a moment of candor, they’ll tell you that the party is almost over.

    Mohamed A. El-Erian is a bona fide member of the global power elite (a former deputy director of the IMF and president of the Harvard Management Co.). Yet he writes in a fairly accessible style on the popular Bloomberg website. When El-Erian talks, we should all listen.

    In a recent article he raises serious doubts about the sustainability of the bull market in stocks because of reduced liquidity resulting from simultaneous policy tightening by the Fed, European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England.

    He says stocks rose on a sea of liquidity and they may crash when that liquidity is removed. This is a warning to other elites, but it’s also a warning to you.


    read more.

end

July 31, 2017 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on The Elites Are Jumping Ship As The Financial Collapse Draws Near

Get Ready for The Freefall Collapse — Mitch Feierstein

  • Published on Jul 26, 2017
    Mitch Feierstein returns to SGT report with an urgent warning, get ready for the free fall collapse. We are in a euphoric bubble blow off top, Mitch says. “I’ve been talking about the Swiss national bank intervening in the equities markets along with the European central bank buying corporate bonds, which allows companies to buy their stocks back, which pushes the markets even higher, inflating the bubbles. it’s a bubble machine. How could anything go wrong in an environment like this when you have unlimited money printing going on? Bad things happen when you print money.”

end

July 27, 2017 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Get Ready for The Freefall Collapse — Mitch Feierstein

Catherine Austin Fitts: We Need Our $40 Trillion In Stolen Cash Back. We Are Now into Controlled Demolition

  • Catherine Austin Fitts: We Need Our $40 Trillion In Stolen Cash Back. We Are Now into Controlled Demolition
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
    Renowned financial expert Catherine Austin Fitts warns there is not much time left for the current system. Fitts contends, “We have built an infrastructure that doesn’t make economic sense, and we are going to have to change.  What’s happening in state and local budgets is the same thing that is happening in health care.  It’s the same thing happening in all these different areas, which is we have engineered government investment to prop up the stock market. . . . Washington, D.C., is basically run for the political campaign contributions generated from capital gains in the stock market.  The problem is, to get that rise in the equity markets, we’ve ended up pumping out enormous amounts of government debt and government money that has a negative return for taxpayers.  It’s not sustainable, and the game is up. . . . I’ve been telling you for 15 years we were going to have a slow burn.  I am telling you that’s over, and we are now into controlled demolition.”

    Don’t expect the mainstream propaganda media to give you any warning or real information about what’s happening. Fitts contends, “The conundrum for a CNN is how do we get ratings?  How do we get attention without talking about the real news?  The real news is, since fiscal 1995, we have disappeared or bailed out or stolen over $40 trillion of our money.  If we are going to balance the budget, we need that $40 trillion or the assets thereon or the liabilities of the people who stole it back on the table, or else we’re toast.  If we can give $27 trillion to the banks, I can assure you we can afford $4 trillion of a pension fund bailout.  Mr. Global doesn’t want us to do the algebra.  This is like fourth grade math.  $27 trillion to bail out the banks, and we are not going to bail out the pension funds?  Where does that come from?”

    There is no argument for a big crash, the only question is when. Fitts says, “I think it’s more likely to happen in 2018.  If you look at the stock market, we are way, and I am tired of saying this, we are way, way overdue for a major correction.  If we do get this major correction, and that is perfectly natural, you don’t want to misinterpret that as a major crisis or event.  I think we are way overdue for a major correction, and I give that a reasonable chance between now and November.  If it doesn’t happen this year, it’s definitely going to happen next year.”
http://www.wnd.com/2016/08/6-5-trillion-missing-from-defense-department/

Click on image for article.

http://crooksandliars.com/2015/06/report-reveals-85-trillion-missing

Click on image for article.

end

July 20, 2017 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Catherine Austin Fitts: We Need Our $40 Trillion In Stolen Cash Back. We Are Now into Controlled Demolition

Legendary Investor Predicts Worst Crisis In His Lifetime | Exclusive with Jim Rogers

  • Published on Jul 17, 2017
    https://sdbullion.com 

    http://www.silverdoctors.com/precious… 
    Legendary investor Jim Rogers says Western Civilization is going to collapse. Debt is higher than ever. Therefore, this crisis “will be worse than anything in our lifetime,” Rogers predicts. Governments, countries, and banks will fail, he says. How should we prepare? “If you start investing in things you don’t know about, I assure you you’re going to have real problems when the situation goes bad, “ Rogers warns, “Stay with what you know.” He expects agriculture to do well going forward. In the short run, he in is bullish on the U.S. Dollar and bearish on precious metals. But in the long run, he sees confidence being eroded in the Dollar, and more movement into gold and silver.

    Rogers expects governments to restrict the use of gold and silver when the crisis hits. Stay tuned to hear what country Rogers thinks will dominate the 21st century – it’s not the United States…

end

July 18, 2017 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Legendary Investor Predicts Worst Crisis In His Lifetime | Exclusive with Jim Rogers