Socio-Economics History Blog

Socio-Economics & History Commentary

Scarier More Dangerous Market Crisis Blowing Up Now – John Rubino

  • Scarier More Dangerous Market Crisis Blowing Up Now – John Rubino
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
    Financial writer John Rubino says the currency crisis happening in Turkey is a stark reason for owning something a government can’t print more of at will. Rubino points out, “The function of gold and silver is to protect you against government mismanagement of your currency.   The emerging market countries (including Turkey) have screwed up their money. They borrowed a lot of U.S. dollars at low interest rates when the dollar was falling. They expected the dollar to keep falling and pay back their loans in ever cheaper dollars, but the dollar went the other way. So, now their loans are unpayable. Their currencies are blowing up, and you are seeing gold and silver rise in local currency terms. In other words, precious metals are protecting the citizens of those countries against financial mismanagement.”


    Rubino warns, “The crisis eventually works its way all the way to the middle, which is what happened after the housing bubble burst in 2007. It was just sub-prime mortgagees to begin with, which was not really a big deal, but eventually it became a near death experience for the entire global banking system. Since that time, instead of getting our financial houses in order around the world, we basically kept on borrowing money. Now, we have almost twice as much debt globally as we had in that debt driven global financial crisis. So, you can expect the next one . . . to be bigger, scarier and more dangerous. There are a lot of reasons to believe we are getting close, and one of those reasons is the emerging markets are starting to blow up.”

    Rubino also points out, “The “Crack-Up Boom” is the point at which everybody figures out it is the explicit policy of their government to make their currency worth less year after year after year, and they don’t want to hold the currency anymore. So, as soon as they get paid, they turn that money into real stuff. You see the price of real things spike because everybody is buying real stuff at whatever price they have to pay. That manifests as accelerating inflation, but it is really a loss of faith in the currency. I think that is the end game of this system. The central banks are bailing out so many different players with so much new currency that people figure out that is a bad deal for the holders of that currency. They start front-running the process, and the system breaks down. This could be the time that it happens because the amount of debt that would have to be bailed out by the central banks is immense. It was much bigger than the bailouts . . . in 2008, and that was multi-trillions of dollars. . . . The numbers could be so immense this time people might see it for what it is. People will figure it out, and that is the systematic destruction of these fiat currencies, and then all hell breaks loose.”

    According to Rubino, the long predicted so-called “debt reset” is getting much closer. How’s that going to work? Rubino explains, “It’s not clear that a currency reset (devaluation) will work unless it is coordinated. It’s not just the U.S. It could also be the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and The Peoples Bank of China all making the announcement about their currency at the same time. If that happened, it would be really disruptive for a short time, but we would come out of it in reasonably good shape. That’s what we should be hoping for because there is no pain free option when you borrow too much money.”

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August 16, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Fund Manager: Gold & Silver Being Hit Like In 2008 To Cover-Up Impending Global Financial Crisis

  • Fund Manager: Gold & Silver Being Hit Like In 2008 To Cover-Up Impending Global Financial Crisis
    by https://www.silverdoctors.com/
    Dave Kranzler provides a very critical update today on what is going on with gold, silver, and the broader markets. Here are the details…

    by Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics 
    In 2008, gold was taken from $1020 to $700 and silver was pounded from $21 to  $7 during the period of time that Bear Stearns, Lehman and the U.S. financial system was collapsing.  The precious metals were behaving inversely to what would have been expected as the global financial system melted down.   Massive Central Bank intervention was at play.

    Currently the price of gold and silver are being dismantled by what appears to be massive hedge fund shorting of Comex paper gold.  As of last Tuesday, the “managed money” trader category as detailed in the Commitment of Traders report showed that the hedge funds were short a record amount of paper gold.

    As of yesterday the open interest in Comex paper gold was about 17,000 contracts higher than the open interest shown in last week’s COT report.  This represents another 1.7 million ozs – or 48 tonnes – of paper gold that has been dumped on the market.  It is highly probable, if not a certainty, that most of the increase in short interest is attributable to hedge fund algos chasing the paper price of gold lower.

    Meanwhile, behind the scenes, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) has been actively intervening in the physical gold market during July, as detailed by Robert Lambourne, a consultant to GATA:

    read more.

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August 16, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

CONTAGION: Why Turkey Could Gobble Up the World by Lynette Zang

  • ITM Trading Streamed live 5 hours ago
    Turkey boasts the fourteenth largest economy and they’ve had easy access to global debt markets. If that debt were issued in terms of lira, no problem, it could be paid off with cheaper lira. Unfortunately, roughly $450bn of that debt was issued in terms of other fiat currencies, with USD denominated bonds making up a full third of that debt! Therefore, as the lira dies, that debt becomes impossible to repay. In terms of the USDs, spot gold has been hammered. In terms of lira, gold is at all-time highs. In reality, physical gold is simply providing its most important function, protecting wealth. If you want to know what to actually DO about all of this, that’s what we specialize in at ITM Trading. How do you protect your wealth for the next collapse and financial reset? Yes Gold and Silver, but what types? How much of each? What strategy? And what long term plan? If you’re asking these questions you’re already ahead of the game… We’re here to assist you, as it is our mission to safeguard the public from the inevitable downfall of the dollar.

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August 16, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Where Are Investors HIDING Their Money? Emerging Market Stocks Show Extreme Risk!

August 16, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Central Bankers Are Up To Something

  • X22Report Published on Aug 15, 2018
    IMF says Spain needs 5 million migrants to pay pensions, what about all the youths that are not working. US household debt hit 13.3 trillion dollars, nothing to worry about. Retail sector rebound with a revision to last month data and the increase in gasoline price. US production slows. Why are the banks getting rid of the ATM machines and closing branches, is the plan to go to a cashless society or to prepare for a collapse. The FBI warns that ATM will be hit by a cyber attack where billions will be stolen world wide.

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August 16, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Erdogan Warns of ‘Economic War’ as Turkish Lira Carnage Spooks Global Markets

  • Erdogan Warns of ‘Economic War’ as Turkish Lira Carnage Spooks Global Markets
    by http://www.dw.com , 11 Aug 2018
    The Turkish lira crash is threatening to turn into a debt and liquidity crisis, with no end in sight. Instead of acting the Turkish leadership has warned of an “economic war,” and hit back at a “currency plot.”

    Turkey is in the throes of a full-blown currency crisis, with little sign that the government has a plan to deal with one of the worst emerging market currency meltdowns in recent history. The crisis threatens to throw the world’s 18th-largest economy into a downward spiral of bankruptcy and trigger contagion in emerging markets and Europe.

    In a keynote speech on Saturday in the Black Sea city of Rize, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan described the currency’s fall as a “currency plot.” He said those who move the currency on financial markets think they can destroy Turkey, going back to comments he has made several times in previous days.

    He pushed back against pressure to hike interest rates which he said “should be kept to a minimum because they are a tool of exploitation that makes the poor poorer and the rich richer.”  

    Currency carnage
    The Turkish lira fell as much as 22 percent Friday, before paring losses back to 17 percent, extending a rout in the currency from earlier this week. It stood at 6.47 to the US dollar at 1900 UTC on Friday. The lira has lost nearly 40 percent of its value since the start of the year and nearly 30 percent since Erdogan took over the office with new sweeping powers in June.


    The currency carnage was pushed along on Friday by US President Donald Trump’s administration, which announced the United States would increase tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum imports. 

    The tariffs themselves are minor and impact around $1 billion (€875 million) in trade, but they weighed on market confidence in the vulnerable Turkish economy.

    “Their currency, the Turkish lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong dollar,” Trump wrote on Twitter. “Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time.”

    read more.

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August 14, 2018 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Turkey Faces Tough Choices as It Teeters on Brink of Economic Collapse

  • Turkey Faces Tough Choices as It Teeters on Brink of Economic Collapse
    by Deena Kamel, https://www.thenational.ae/
    Measures needed include aggressive interest-rate increases, tackling inflation, mending international relations, and IMF rescue as last resort, analysts say

    Turkey’s government faces politically unsavoury measures to pull the country back from the brink of economic collapse amid risks of contagion by European banks and emerging markets.

    Gripped by one of the worst currency routs in emerging market history, Turkey’s economic pain could spread beyond its banking system to import-reliant sectors and heighten the risk of exposure of European lenders, particularly Spanish and Italian ones, to the crisis, analysts said. Taking a cue from countries that suffered currency collapse, Turkey’s options include tighter monetary policy and a rescue package from the International Monetary Fund–both unappealing to policymakers.

    “International investors would like to see the same actions taken in Argentina recently: much higher interest rates, [and] a commitment to address inflation, improve fiscal performance and engage with multi-lateral lenders like the IMF,” Hasnain Malik, equity strategist at Exotix Capital, said.

    The Turkish lira sank to its lowest levels since 2001, roiling global markets on Friday, as tensions flared between Nato allies Turkey and the United States over Ankara’s imprisonment of an American pastor.

    On Friday, US President Donald Trump doubled tariffs on Turkish metal imports. Retorting to Mr Trump’s move, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan urged the country’s citizens on Saturday to support the lira, to win a “war of independence”.

    “If there are dollars under your pillow, take these out. If there are euros, take these out. Immediately give these to the banks and convert to Turkish lira and by doing this, we fight this war of independence and the future. Because this is the language they understand,” he said.

    read more.

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August 13, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Will the Crisis in Turkey Bring the Global Stock Markets To Its Knees? Possible TRIGGER Event!

August 13, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Serious Crap Is About To Hit The Fan, Now They Will All Lose: Jordan Sather

August 13, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Turkey and Other Emerging Markets Are CRASHING as Currency Drops 20%!

August 13, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Biggest Economic Crime Is Taking Place Right Before Our Eyes: Gregory Mannarino

August 8, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Hard Crash, Counterfeits, SHTF. Q&A with Lynette Zang and Eric Griffin

  • ITM Trading Streamed live 6 hours ago
    Links and Slides: https://www.itmtrading.com/blog/qa-ly… 
    Question 1. Daniel S: what becomes the value of your holdings in precious metals if currency becomes entirely digital, no more banknotes – and therefore totally out of one’s control?
    Question 2. Matthew B: In a SHTF scenario or in a Reset of the financial system would it be better to use the Silver American Eagles or Sunshine rounds?
    Question 3. Gina Groot: why is everybody thinking it will be a hard crash? Is it also possible that it will be a soft transition like when they introduced the Euro?
    Question 4. Randseed Bin: There seems to be a rise in the number of counterfeit coins (mostly from China) in very realistic and legitimate looking slabs. Sometimes the slabs are real and the coin inside is replaced. How do you test a coin for authenticity when it’s sealed up like that?
    Question 5. Laura K: If the world Governments and Central Banks own most of the Gold can they dictate the price of the Gold?

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July 26, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Chris Martenson: Wealth Transfer Coming Real Assets Needed

  • When Credit Cycles Blow Up, They’re Really Destructive – Chris Martenson
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
    Futurist and economic researcher Chris Martenson says we are not at the end of a business cycle but “. . . at the end of a credit cycle.” Martenson warns, “Here’s why people need to be concerned. Credit cycles, when they blow up, are really, really destructive. 2008 to 2009 was very destructive. Instead of realizing the error of their ways, they went for a third. This is the most comprehensive credit cycle that we have seen. Remember, bubbles have two things that they need. Number one, a good story that people can believe in and, of course, it’s a false story. Number two, ample credit. That’s what the Fed and central banks of Japan and Europe have done. They just flooded the world with credit. Now, we have bubbles everywhere. When these burst, it will be the worst bursting in anybody’s lifetime because we have never seen anything like this.”


    Martenson says a debt reset is locked in, and somebody is going to pay.   Martenson explains, “When you have as much debt that the United States has . . . the overall debt level in the United States, including auto loans, mortgages, consumer debt, student loans and corporate debt and whatever, we’re sitting at about $60 trillion right now. It’s a huge number, and when you get to this level of indebtedness, plus those unfunded or underfunded liabilities . . . when you get to this level of indebtedness, there is really only one question left to be resolved, and that is who is going to eat the losses. That’s it. So, when you start asking that question, the banks and people writing the laws are pretty sure they are not going to take the losses. The person relying on the pension is the person that is going to eat the losses. . . . There is no way to make this work. Here’s where the social tension comes in. Even as ordinary middle class people are being destroyed in this process, the rich are taking more and more out of the system. That is courtesy of the policies of the Federal Reserve. . . . But the big risk is when these printing sprees, these credit cycles finally burst. They are wildly destructive. They are fast. They are hard. They are sharp and they hurt.”

    read more.

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July 26, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Egon von Greyerz: All Hell Will Break Loose With Record Risk

  • Risk Exponential and Unmeasurable – Egon von Greyerz
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday Release)
    Financial and precious metals expert Egon von Greyerz (EvG) vaults gold for clients at two secret locations on two continents. He says his wealthy clients have at least 20% of their net worth in physical gold and silver. Some have much more. Why so much physical metal? EvG says it is because of record risk in the world today. EvG explains, “There is only ½% of all world financial assets held in physical gold. So, this is a very small group, but it is still a lot of money. Of course, the majority doesn’t believe this because if they did, all the other markets would collapse. The particular people that are concerned about risk that we deal with, and they are not concerned in a minor way . . . look at all the asset classes, whether you take the stock markets, bond markets or property markets, they are all in the most massive bubbles fueled by exponential growth in credit. Global credit has tripled since 1999 to today. Global debt went from $80 trillion to $240 trillion. When debt triples, it doesn’t mean that risk triples. Risk goes up exponentially. Then you add to that all the off-balance sheet items and unfunded liabilities. The derivatives are at least $1.5 quadrillion. . . . Officially, it is reported $600 billion, but it is probably $1.5 quadrillion. . . . So, you are talking about risk that no one understands, and no one can measure. Most of it is in paper or air, if you will. It’s like a balloon, and when you pop that balloon, you will find it is mostly air. This means asset values will implode, and so will debt.”

    How bad is this going to get? EvG says, “I think stock markets and bond markets will go down by at least 75%, and I would say it could be up to 95% or more. A lot of companies will disappear. I am not saying the world is going to end. You must remember, in 1929 risk and debt was nowhere near where what it is today and certainly not globally either. This is a global problem, and not just in the U.S. In 1929, the stock market went down by 90% between 1929 and 1932. It took 25 years to get back to the 1929 level. So, it could go down by 95% today and that would not surprise me at all because we are talking about a much bigger problem. And don’t believe that central banks and governments are going to rescue this. They have used all their tools. They have inflated the money supply with printed money, and they are telling us all that they have it under control. They have nothing under control, and there is no margin to lower interest rates anymore either. Therefore, in my view, interest rates are going to surge. They could try to lower them when the markets get into trouble. It will not succeed, and it will be like in the 1970’s, and you will see 20% interest rates.”

    read more.

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July 23, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

HOLY SHIFT: Stock Market Pace Maker Breaking Down? by Lynette Zang

  • ITM Trading Streamed live on Jul 19, 2018
    Links and Slides: https://www.itmtrading.com/blog/holy-…
    Everyone wants a crystal ball on the markets. Paying attention to pattern shifts, particularly surrounding insider behavior, shows us what’s happening just out of sight of main street and may provide important information on what lies ahead, because they are ones running the corporations.

    HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO A MARKET BREAKDOWN?
    By all indicators, we are in a late stage markets with just a few stocks pushing the indexes higher. In fact only three stocks; Amazon, Netflix and Microsoft are responsible for 70% of the S&P gains for 2018. What is the real trend? One look at the long-term gold chart shows a very powerful cup formation forming. That means smart money buying. I’m buying…are you? And if you want to know what to actually DO about all of this, that’s what we specialize in. How do you protect your wealth for the next collapse? Yes Gold and Silver, but what types? What strategy? And what long term plan? If you’re asking these questions you’re already ahead of the game. We’d love to assist you as it is our mission to safeguard you from the inevitable downfall of the dollar. 

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July 23, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment