Socio-Economics History Blog

Socio-Economics & History Commentary

Bill Blain: “Stock Markets Don’t Matter; The Great Crash Of 2018 Will Start In The Bond Market”

  • Bill Blain: “Stock Markets Don’t Matter; The Great Crash Of 2018 Will Start In The Bond Market”
    by Tyler Durden, http://www.zerohedge.com/
    Blain’s Morning Porridge, Submitted by Bill Blain of Mint Partners
    The Great Crash of 2018? Look to the bond markets to trigger Mayhem!

    I had the impression the markets had pretty much battened down for rest of 2017 – keen to protect this year’s gains. Wrong again. It seems there is another up-step. After the People’s Bank of China dropped $47 bln of money into its financial system (where bond yields have risen dramatically amid growing signs of wobble), the game’s afoot once more. The result is global stocks bound upwards. Again. It suggest Central Banks have little to worry about in 2018 – if markets get fraxious, just bung a load of money at them.

    Personally, I’m not convinced how the tau of monetary market distortion is a good thing? Markets have become like Pavlov’s dog: ring the easy money bell, and markets salivate to the upside.

    read more.

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November 18, 2017 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Peter Schiff: Gold Will Explode & Dollar Wiped Out. Mother of All Bubbles Too Big to Pop

  • Peter Schiff: Gold Will Explode & Dollar Wiped Out. Mother of All Bubbles Too Big to Pop
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 
    Money manager Peter Schiff correctly predicted the financial meltdown in 2008. Now, 10 years later, what does Schiff see today?  Schiff says, “I predicted a lot more than just the stock market going down back then.  I predicted the financial crisis, but more importantly, I predicted what the government would do as a result of the financial crisis and what the consequences of that would be because that’s where we’re headed.  The real crash I wrote about in my most recent book is still coming. . . . This is the third gigantic bubble that the Fed has inflated, and when this one pops, it’s not going to be ‘the third time is a charm.’  It’s going to be ‘three strikes and you’re out.’  I think this bubble is too big to pop.  I think it’s the mother of all bubbles, and when it bursts, there is not a bigger one that the Fed is going to be able to inflate to mask these problems, meaning we can’t kick the can down the road anymore.”


    This time, the crisis is going to hit everyone in the wallet. Schiff goes on to say, “I think the problem we are going to be confronted with is going to be much worse than a financial crisis.  It is going to be a dollar crisis, and it is going to be a sovereign debt crisis where the bonds people are worried about are not some sub-prime mortgages. . . . It’s going to be the U.S. government that people are worried about and the solvency of the U.S. government and the Treasury bonds.  If it’s a dollar crisis and people are worried about the dollar, the only thing worse than owning a dollar today is owning the promise of being paid in dollars in the future.  I don’t think we have the courage to default and admit to our creditors that we don’t have the money and we can’t repay.  I think we will create all the money that we need so we can pretend to repay, but what we end up doing is wiping out the debt with inflation.”

    So, how long can it go on? Schiff says, “How high can the debt go?  I don’t know and you don’t know. . . .How many straws can you put on a camel’s back?  You don’t know until you put that final straw that’s one too many and you break his back.  So, can we go to $25 trillion in debt?  Maybe.  At some point, we are going to break the back of the camel with all this debt.  Then we are going to find out how much debt we can pile on, and it’s not going to be pretty.  Everybody is going to lose.  Everybody is going to get wiped out who has been partying in the stock market, the bond market and the real estate market.  The dollar is going to tank, and purchasing power is going to get wiped out.”

    read more.

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November 16, 2017 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Zero Hour Is Here: Top Analyst Warns Of Global Superstorm

  • The Alex Jones Channel Published on Nov 14, 2017
    Harry Dent Jr. joins Alex Jones live via Skype to break down the decline of the dollar and what a descending American economy would mean domestically and the rest of the world’s finances.

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November 15, 2017 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Something Nasty this Way Comes | Lynette Zang

  • Reluctant Preppers Published on Nov 9, 2017
    Are you bombarded by daily reports of the stock market hitting record highs, and the Fed promising to stop propping up stocks, real estate, and bonds? Ever wonder if now is finally the time to throw caution to the wind, get off the sidelines, and jump onto the profit wave to reap some those tempting & seemingly unstoppable gains you may have been missing out on? Or maybe you sense it’s almost the end of the party, and are concerned that the skyrocketing debt and teetering banks mean it’s really time to not be the last one to the exits! Lynette Zang, chief Market Analyst at ITM Trading, returns to Reluctant Preppers to lay out the clear and present dangers, based on the government’s own data. Zang spells out a new and striking pattern-shift that may indeed be the early warning signal of the coming collapse.

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November 14, 2017 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Global Crackdown Meets Crack Up Boom — Rob Kirby

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November 9, 2017 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The IMF Lays Out The Global Financial Crash Scenario

  • X22Report Published on Oct 22, 2017
    China’s government is going to start purchasing residential real estate to manage the housing bubble. Hidden in the IMF report is the passage that explains how the IMF is going to handle the global financial crisis. Italy is looking to hold a referendum. Spain fight back and invokes article 155. NK nuclear site might not be able to handle another test. Russia says that the IAEA does not have the authority to visit military site in Iran. Tillerson says that Iranian militias must leave Iraq because the US has designated them as terrorists groups. US backed militias capture another IS oil field.

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October 24, 2017 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

This Massive Everything Bubble Is About To Pop And It’s Going To Be A Disaster: Jason Burack

October 23, 2017 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Paul Craig Roberts: Markets Fall When Dollar Falls. Looming Catastrophe Hanging Over Our Heads

  • Paul Craig Roberts: Markets Fall When Dollar Falls. Looming Catastrophe Hanging Over Our Heads
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
    Former Assistant Treasury Secretary in the Reagan Administration, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, says the record highs you see in the stock markets are based on “phony profits” that come from global central banks “propping up” the financial system. Roberts says, “Any of these central banks are really only there for a handful of big banks. That’s all they are concerned with. All the Federal Reserve has been concerned with for the last decade is the welfare of a handful of mega banks. Of course, the banks are too large. They should have never been allowed to get that large. When you have a bank too big to fail, then your policy has failed. You’ve allowed too much concentration. Where is anti-trust? Where is the Sherman Act? Everything that was legislated in the past to prevent the kind of looming catastrophe that is hanging over our heads, this looming catastrophe is produced by central banks. They are perpetuating it because they don’t know how to get out of it.”


    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just warned on the profitability of nine huge global banks. Some say they equal nine possible Lehman Brothers, which was the financial institution that started the 2008 meltdown. Is the IMF terrified of the slightest correction in the markets? Dr. Roberts says, “I think so, yes, because it’s not based on reality. It’s based on massive liquidity. So, it’s full of all kinds of dangers.”

    The biggest danger to Dr. Roberts, who has a PhD in economics, is the U.S. dollar. Dr. Roberts contends, “It seems to me that the only thing that would cause the Federal Reserve to stop the liquidity would be if the U.S. dollar fell under attack. If for some reason people said, hey, we don’t want the dollar anymore, and they started moving out of dollars into other currencies or into something else, if they cease to hold assets in dollars, if that happened, the Fed would have to try to raise interest rates to support the dollar. Then you could see that everything could come apart. If the interest rates would go up, there would be all kinds of derivatives that would not be sustainable. The stock market would collapse. It would be a mess. It would be an utter mess. That’s what the IMF is worried about. It’s a messy situation. How do you get out of it?”

    How does Dr. Roberts say people should protect themselves? Dr. Roberts says, “I would not be in debt.”

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October 19, 2017 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Calm Before The Storm: Dutch Central Bank Warning, S&P Dips As Bitcoin Surges

  • DAHBOO77 Published on Oct 9, 2017
    “Economists all over the world are concerned about the increased risks arising from the accumulation of more and more liquidity and the growth of public and private debt. I myself am concerned about this, too,” he said echoing the concern voiced just one day earlier by IMF head Christine Lagarde, who said the world was enjoying its best growth spurt since the start of the decade, but warned of “threats on the horizon” from “high levels of debt in many countries to rapid credit expansion in China, to excessive risk-taking in financial markets”. 10 years ago today, The Fed minutes were released sparking a buying frenzy pushing The Dow above 14k to a new record high – supported by a dovish Fed and a convinced public that job growth was recovering and all would be well. It turns out that the peak for the market that was followed a greater-than-50% plunge in stocks. That week, U.S. President George W. Bush said the figures signaled “a vibrant economy” but a poll of top Wall Street economists found more than half still think the Fed will trim rates again this month to help the economy get past a housing slump and a surge in mortgage defaults. U.S. employers added 110,000 jobs in September and August’s job losses were revised into a gain in a Labor Department report on Friday that lifted some worry about a recession in the near term. Learn More:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10…
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10…

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October 10, 2017 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , | Leave a comment

James Rickards: North Korea Thinks USA Bluffing – It’s Not! Very Violent Reversal Before End of 2017

  • James Rickards: North Korea Thinks USA Bluffing – It’s Not! Very Violent Reversal Before End of 2017
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 
    Four time best-selling financial book author James Rickards says don’t get too comfortable with the record high stock prices. Rickards explains, “I think the markets will have a very violent reversal in late November or early December.  Let me be specific about why because I never make claims like this without backing it up. . . . Here’s what’s going on.  Right now, markets are priced for a Fed rate hike in December. . . . The stock market is interpreting this rate hike as economic strength . . . everything is set for a violent reversal because the Fed is not going to hike interest rates in December.”


    So, why is the Fed not going to raise rates? Rickards says it’s because of not enough inflation and way too much deflation.  This has the Fed scared to move.  Rickards contends, “Why is deflation a central bank’s worst nightmare?  The answer is deflation increases the real value of debt.  In other words, the dollar actually gets stronger in a deflationary environment.  If I owe you dollars, and the dollar just got stronger, I owe you more money in real terms.  It becomes more difficult to pay off debt in a deflationary environment because my income is drying up.  The real burden of debt is going up, and if I couldn’t pay you to begin with, deflation is going to make it more difficult to repay you. . . . Imagine if we had one or two percent deflation . . . and the value of the debt was going up.  The defaults would be even worse.  Bad debts would pile up.  The banking system would be under threat.  Tax collections would go down in nominal terms.  The credit of the U.S. government would be called into question.  The U.S. government might default.  These are all the horrendous consequences of deflation, and it’s why central banks cannot have deflation.”

    So, what happens if Rickards is correct and the Fed does not raise rates? Rickards says, “When that happens, and I think it will happen . . . all of a sudden, the dollar is going to get weaker, the euro is going to get stronger, gold is going to go up and bonds are going to rally.  So, there will be a lot of big market effects.  I am not talking the end of the world . . . . I am not talking about a total meltdown.  I am talking about a violent repricing of some major commodities and bonds . . . because the market thinks the Fed is going to raise, and they’re not.”

    Is there a danger in October as many believe there could be? Rickards says “yes,” and it comes from increased tensions with North Korea.  Rickards says, “We have a window from October 10th to October 21st.  What is the significance of that window?  October 10th is the anniversary of the communist party of North Korea.  Kim Jong Un is getting ready to test more missiles. . . . We have two catalysts.  The anniversary on October 10th and war games (with South Korea) on October 21st.  In that window is when I expect one or more missile tests.  That’s going to be another wake up call to the markets.  The markets are sleepwalking . . . they don’t understand this war is coming, and it is coming.  A shooting war, a pre-emptive war, a kinetic war with the United States against North Korea, I do expect by mid-2018. . . . Kim Jong Un thinks we are bluffing.  We are not.”

    Rickards also restates his case for “$10,000 gold” and contends it’s at a relatively low price, and people should buy it now and simply hold it.

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October 5, 2017 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The IMF Says The Block Chain Could Displace The Fractional Banking Model

  • X22Report Published on Oct 2, 2017
    Get economic collapse news throughout the day visit http://x22report.com Report date: 01.02.2017 ISM survey reports that manufacturing is doing better than ever. But we have seen this before after a major hurricane. This is the worst year from construction spending. The market might crash this October. The IMF reports that the block chain technology might make banks obsolete.

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October 3, 2017 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Gerald Celente: WW III To Prevent Worst World Market Crash in History

October 2, 2017 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Gordon Long: Markets in Delusional Phase. Gold Price Will Explode When System Breaks

  • Gordon Long: Markets in Delusional Phase. Gold Price Will Explode When System Breaks
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 
    Private investor Gordon Long contends the price of gold will shock the world when it revalues to reflect the massive amount of currency that has been printed globally. Long explains, “That is correct, and it won’t be something that is gradual, it will be very abrupt.  The system will break . . . and the financial markets will freeze up.  When they come out of the other end of that freeze, and it may be a number of weeks because the next crisis will be global and much more complex than 2008.  We could control that with the Federal Reserve . . . and this one you cannot do because you cannot get agreement with all those countries.  Never mind understanding the complexity.  So, when we come out on the other side . . . there will be a massive revaluation in the U.S. dollar. . . .  Gold could jump to $5,000 or $10,000 an ounce or something like that. . . . It will be massive.  They will have to put some stability in the monetary system, and the only way they can do it is having something they cannot print.  This is what has gotten us into this problem.  We have to get back to sound money.  It will have to be gold.  What percentage of backing will determine what the value the gold will be.”


    On the value of the U.S. dollar, Long contends, “Personally, I think the revaluation of the U.S. dollar will be well over 70% devaluation. It doesn’t mean the world is coming to an end.  It just means you have to go through this to reset.  Those who prepare and understand why this is happening and watch for the signals, there’s going to be fortunes transferred.  They are being transferred right now, frankly.  One other big caveat on gold prices going way up, expect the government to tax it like you have never seen before.”

    read more.

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September 29, 2017 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Peter Schiff: Mother of all Financial Cyclones About to Make Landfall

September 20, 2017 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Peter Schiff: Mother of all Financial Cyclones About to Make Landfall

Ahead: Major Market Shock | Rob Kirby

  • FinanceAndLiberty.com Published on Sep 17, 2017
    The stock market is at all time highs and precious metals are slumping. But not for long. “One day, we’re going to wake up, and things will be fundamentally different,” Rob Kirby warns on this week’s SD Metals & Markets wrap. The market manipulation will end, and precious metals will skyrocket.

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September 20, 2017 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Ahead: Major Market Shock | Rob Kirby