Socio-Economics History Blog

Socio-Economics & History Commentary

China: Major Currency Devaluation Coming?

  • China: Major Devaluation Coming
    by John Rubino,
    The whole “market economy” thing is turning out to be a little trickier than China’s dictators expected. To set up the story: After the 2008 crash the country borrowed about $15 trillion (an amount that dwarfs the US Fed’s quantitative easing programs) and spent the proceeds on history’s biggest infrastructure program.

    This pushed up the prices of iron ore, oil, copper, etc., igniting a global commodities boom. Then China liberalized its stock trading rules, setting off a stampede into local equities that doubled prices in less than a year. The result is a classically unbalanced economy, with massive physical malinvestment, overpriced financial assets and way too much debt.

    The inevitable crash began in June, and Beijing responded by tossing about 10% of GDP into equities to stop the bleeding. This worked, as such interventions tend to do, for a while. But last night it failed:

    Chinese shares tumble 8.5 percent in biggest one-day drop since 2007
    (Reuters) – Chinese shares slid more than 8 percent on Monday as an unprecedented government rescue plan to prop up valuations ran out of steam, throwing Beijing’s efforts to stave off a deeper crash into doubt.

    Major indexes suffered their largest one-day drop since 2007, shattering three weeks of relative calm in China’s volatile stock markets since Beijing unleashed a barrage of support measures to arrest a slump that started in mid-June.

    read more.


July 29, 2015 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Chaos, Propaganda And Why This Global Panic Will Be So Brutal


  • Chaos, Propaganda And Why This Global Panic Will Be So Brutal
    Today the man who has become legendary for his predictions on QE, historic moves in currencies, and major global events warned King World News about the coming chaos in Europe and why this global panic will be so brutal.  He also discussed the increased use of propaganda by the Western mainstream media.

    Egon von Greyerz: 
    “Eric, the world is bankrupt financially, economically, and morally, but through manipulation and deceit we are led to believe that all is well. It’s absolutely absurd that all the bubble assets are at highs, while wealth-preservation assets are totally bombed-out….

    read more.


July 28, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Next Phase For The Push Into Syria Is Now Taking Place. A Partial No-Fly Zone Has Been Established In Syria For The Next Offensive

  • Published on Jul 27, 2015 
    Greek stock exchange will allegedly open up on Tuesday. Tax evasion in Greece hits 50%. Moody’s reports those deposits over 100,000 could be taken by the bankers. IMF warns the Euro zone outlook faces a gloomy outlook. Durable goods declines for 5 months in a row, signalling a recession/depression. Australia ready to go with the TPP. Ukraine storing natural gas underground. Libya puppet government takes controls over oil fields. Turkey allows US to use bases for airstrikes in Syria. Turkey/US set up safe zone in northern Syria, which is the same thing as a no-fly zone. US and Turkey are setting up the next phase to push into Syria to remove Assad.
  • Published on Jul 24, 2015  
    Euro zone manufacturing declines.US manufacturing declines. Housing recovery non existent, new home sales implode. World trade data now screaming collapse. US will not be able to pay Social Security Disability payments by 2016. Insurance companies are merging into a few to take control. BRICS banks will issue loans in yuan not dollars. FBI will train police in Odessa Ukraine. Kiev troops now increasing. Turkey is now allowing the US to use multiple airbases. A partial no-fly zone has been setup in Syria, US is now preparing for a major offensive. US paid mercenaries agree Assad must go, no future in Syria.

How does a snake present himself as savior of the world? By speaking like a dragon: using subtlety and deception. Click on image for article.

Click on image for article.


July 28, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Chinese Stocks Suffer Second Biggest Crash In History, 1,500 Companies Halted Limit Down

Shanghai_Composite_biggest drop_since_2000

  • Chinese Stocks Suffer Second Biggest Crash In History, 1,500 Companies Halted Limit Down
    by Tyler Durden,  
    This was not supposed to happen.
    After pledging, investing and otherwise guaranteeing the Chinese stock market to the tune of 10% of GDP, and intervening on at least 40 different occasions in the past month ever since China’s stock bubble burst in late June, with the subsequent crash nearly taking the Shanghai Composite red for the year, overnight China officially lost control for the second time, when after a weak start to the Monday trading session, things turned very ugly in the last hour, when the Shanghai Composite plunged by 8.48%, closing nearly at the lows, and tumbling some 345 points for its biggest one-day drop since February 2007 and its second biggest crash in history!

    The selling was steady throughout the day, but spiked in the last hour on concerns China would rein in its market-supporting programs following IMF demands to normalize its relentless market intervention. According to Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow: “fear that the extraordinary support measures employed to hold up the market may be scaled back caused heavy afternoon selling resulting in a down 8.5% day.” Of course, one can come up with any number of theories to explain the plunge: for example the PBOC did not buy enough to offset the relentless selling.

    read more.


July 27, 2015 Posted by | Economics | , , , | Leave a comment

Civil War Is Obama’s Endgame For America


July 27, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Global Financial Derivatives: US$1.5 Quadrillion Time Bomb


Financial collapse time bomb!

Financial collapse time bomb!

  • Global Financial Derivatives: US$1.5 Quadrillion Time Bomb
    by Stephen Lendman,  
    When investing becomes gambling, bad endings follow. The next credit crunch could make 2008-09 look mild by comparison. Bank of International Settlements(BIS) data show around $700 trillion in global derivatives.

    Along with credit default swaps and other exotic instruments, the total notional derivatives value is about $1.5 quadrillion – about 20% more than in 2008, beyond what anyone can conceive, let alone control if unexpected turmoil strikes.

    The late Bob Chapman predicted it. So does Paul Craig Roberts. It could “destroy Western civilization,” he believes. Financial deregulation turned Wall Street into a casino with no rules except unrestrained making money. Catastrophic failure awaits. It’s just a matter of time.

    Ellen Brown calls the “derivatives casino…a last-ditch attempt to prop up a private pyramid scheme” – slowly crumbling under its own weight.

    For years, Warren Buffett called derivatives “financial time bombs” – for economies and ordinary people. Unless collateralized or guaranteed, their worth depends on the creditworthiness of counter-parties. Earnings on derivatives are “wildly overstated,” Buffett explains – because they’re “based on estimates whose inaccuracy may not be exposed for many years.”

    When corporate bosses ask financial executives how profits look in any quarter, they, in turn, ask how much do you want, then manipulate things to oblige when told.

    Since 2008, too-big-to-fail banks consolidated to much greater size than ever. They’re financial and political powerhouses controlling world economies to their own advantage. 

    Civilization’s only hope is smashing them – dismantling them into small, impotent pieces, or ideally putting money back in public hands where it belongs. 

    read more.
Global financial tsunami fast approaching!

Global financial tsunami fast approaching!


July 27, 2015 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Central Banks Ready To Panic — Again


  • Central Banks Ready To Panic — Again
    by John Rubino,
    Less than a decade after a housing/derivatives bubble nearly wiped out the global financial system, a new and much bigger commodities / derivatives bubble is threatening to finish the job. Raw materials are tanking as capital pours out of the most heavily-impacted countries and into anything that looks like a reasonable hiding place. So the dollar is up, Swiss and German bond yields are negative, and fine art is through the roof.

    Now emerging-market turmoil is spreading to the developed world and the conventional wisdom is shifting from a future of gradual interest rate normalization amid a return to steady growth, to zero or negative rates as far as the eye can see. Here’s a representative take from Bloomberg:

    This is not how the Fed, ECB or Bank of Japan envisioned the year playing out. They see ultra-low rates as an emergency measure, temporary in nature and to be dispensed with asap. From MarketWatch:

    Here’s the real reason the Fed wants to raise rates 
    Federal Reserve policy makers are hoping, even praying, that no unexpected domestic development or international crisis intervenes to prevent them from taking the first baby step to normalize interest rates at the Sept.16-17 meeting.

    That “unforeseen event” has arrived, leaving most central banks with a stark choice: Let the deflationary crash run its course at the risk of blowing up the quadrillion or so dollars of interest rate, credit, and currency derivatives hidden on bank and hedge fund balance sheets. Or push interest rates into negative territory pretty much across the developed world. Since option number one carries a statistically-significant chance of ending the modern financial era it is absolutely unacceptable to Goldman et al, and is thus a non-starter. Which leaves only option two: more of the same but bigger and badder.

    So…the central banks will panic. Again. Countries that retain some control over their monetary systems will see their interest rates fall to zero and beyond, while those that don’t will be thrown into some kind of new age hyperinflationary depression. Not 2008 all over again; this is something much stranger.

    read more.





July 27, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Top Economic Forecaster Warns: Have Cash On Hand To Survive For Three Months: “No Institution Is Safe”


  • Top Economic Forecaster Warns: Have Cash On Hand To Survive For Three Months: “No Institution Is Safe”
    by Mac Slavo,  
    Economic forecaster Martin Armstrong, who is known for having accurately predicted major events like the Savings & Loan crash, the collapse of Japanese financial markets and the destruction of the Russian economy almost to the day, says that a major turning point is coming to the global paradigm this October. While stopping short of calling for an all out crash, Armstrong’s cyclical turning point of2015.75 suggests that very big changes are set to take place.

    But how do you prepare for the uncertainty of what’s to come? Armstrong says you’d better have some cash on hand for short-term disruptions, just in case your financial institution shuts down like they did in Greece:

    No institution is safe for all can be closed by decree, including credit unions. This is true of safe deposit boxes as well. They may not confiscate it, but they can deny access. PLAN B should be an amount of cash that is enough to live on for at least one month if not three months insofar as basic essentials, not mortgages, etc. Effectively this is food money and gas for the car. Gold coins will not help in this case, nor will silver coins, for we are not talking about trying to preserve wealth; this is the emergency stash for living purposes in case you need CASH, which is recognized by everyone. Try explaining a silver quarter to a teenage clerk who has no authority to accept a quarter for more than a quarter. Precious metals will be more of an underground economy of barter; it will not be useful at the local supermarket.

    Also, keep in mind that cash could come in handy in a computer failure, whereas you cannot access a bank, exchange, etc. just to survive for there could be a scenario where not even plastic credit cards or debt cards would offer any help.
    Source: Armstrong Economics

    If America goes the way of Greece and the government enacts capital controls you can fully expect hours-long lines at ATM machines and banks just to get your daily allotment of $50 – $100. That, of course, is not enough for the majority of Americans to cover their most basic expenses including mortgage payments, food, and other necessary expenditures.

    read more.


July 27, 2015 Posted by | Economics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Rickards: “Euro Creators Want to Force Common Fiscal Control” And Centralized Government

Click on image to download MP3 interview.

Click on image to download MP3 interview.

  • Rickards: “Euro Creators Want to Force Common Fiscal Control”
    by Henry Bonner,  
    The Greek crisis is no accident, says Jim Rickards, but is part of a long-running plan to bring Europe under central control. 

    Jim was general council at Long-Term Capital Management, a hedge fund that made massively levered bets in the late 90’s and eventually went south, exposing banks to over $1 trillion in potential losses. He was involved in negotiating a bailout in the aftermath.

    The CIA has called on Jim to help investigate how stock markets might indicate impending threats. 
    He’s the author of Currency Wars and The Death of Money, and will be attending the Sprott-Stansberry Vancouver Natural Resource Symposium – which begins next week.

    Jim has a new book, The Big Drop, available only to subscribers of his paid newsletter. You can find out more about it here
    What can Jim tell us about the Eurozone crisis and the outcome of Greece’s bailout talks?

    Henry Bonner: Jim, you were personally involved in negotiating the bailout of Long-Term Capital Management. Do you have any insights on the recent talks between Greece and the European Central Bank?

    Jim Rickards: 
    Yes, in all of these huge financial crises – whenever you are one of the responsible parties or on a team trying to negotiate a bailout – they all have certain things in common.

    Of course, the amounts, the creditors, and the borrowers vary from case to case. Whether it was the bailout of LTCM in 1998, the rescue of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns or AIG in 2008, or the bailout of Greece in 2015, there are particularities but they all have similar dynamics.

    read more.


July 27, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Jim Willie: “I’m Doing Fine in a World that is Totally Surreal”

  • “I’m Doing Fine in a World that is Totally Surreal” ~ Jim Willie Interview
    by Perpetual Assets , 25 July 2015 
    Will Lehr of Perpetual Assets Interviews Dr. Jim Willie, editor of the Hat Trick Letter on
    Jim guides us through an informative display of geo political developments. He has an incredible understanding of global markets and how they work. Through statistical analysis he is able to find opportunities, pitfalls, deceit, and global agendas by the power elite. Jim is truly a gift to the community of awake and critical minds. We go much deeper than summarized. Tune in to the full hour and a half in 2 parts.

    We open with a discussion on public sentiment and cognitive dissonance. Watching the public take the bait hook line and sinker is disturbing. As critical thinkers we check ourselves, even testing our own beliefs. The truth is most of the general public does not even inform themselves, let alone question.

    Jim discusses many of the signals we should watch for as things unfold. He analyzes the US Treasury bond market, what he calls the grand weak link, the breaking point for the dollar. The entire world is quietly moving to Chinese currency settlement facilities. US corporations alone are holding large amounts of Yuan to purchase their materials from China.

    The internal dynamics of the US Treasury bond are revealing. Jim breaks down the exact machinations of this market. He shows an asymmetric development where smaller samples are creating larger changes and this is very disturbing to the money handlers. China has dumped $250 billion in US treasuries in 2015 alone, about 20% of it’s ‘official’ holdings. Jim believes its real holdings are much less due to creative use of swap trade agreements.

    The recent Chinese equities market collapse is no coincidence of timing – perhaps a Langley attack on the Chinese. Then a retaliation from from the Chinese in the form of hacking the NYSE, The Wall St Journal, and United Airlines. Jim believes the conflict is accelerating. He talks about Iran and its unique flashpoint potential. 

    read more.


July 25, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Rob Kirby: We’re Coming Into End Of Times

  • “There will be a mad scramble in the west by the elitists to grab what physical gold is left before the Comex completely defaults. It is quite possible, if not highly probable, that this final looting of GLD is part of that process.”  – Rob Kirby
  • Rob Kirby: We’re Coming Into End Of Times  
    The gold smash going on right now reeks of desperation…the manipulation has become utterly in your face.  It tells me we’re getting close the end when you have the likes of John Hathaway and Ross Norman starting to talk the gospel of GATA. These guys over the years have literally sniveled at GATA and told us we were tinfoil hat conspiracy theorists.  And now these guys are reading out of the GATA book and that’s a mind-blower and this tells me this is close to blowing up.  – Rob Kirby, Shadow of Truth 

    I was chatting this morning with a close friend in NYC who I know going back to my days as a junk bond trader at Bankers Trust.  He works as a consultant to investment/hedge funds now and is extremely perceptive in his insights about what is going on in the financial markets.

    I asked him what he’s hearing from some of the big hedge fund managers he calls on every week:

    Everybody hopes they a have chair when the music stops and it will stop when this thing cracks it will crack hard.  Carl Icahn going after Larry Fink the way he did is a very big deal and it reflects the amount stress in the system when the big fish turn each other.

    What’s remarkable to me is that gold has held up as well as it has.  The insiders are throwing multi-billion manipulation trades [Comex, LBMA, OTC derivatives] and yet there’s still a big bid for physical gold under the market…The one thing I’m sure of is that the “market” price we see of everything is not a market-clearing price.

    read more.


July 25, 2015 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Alex Jones Show: The Federal Government is a Globalist (Illuminati) Trojan Horse

  • Published on Jul 24, 2015
    On the Friday, July 24 broadcast of the Alex Jones Show, cries for gun control sound out in the wake of a Lafayette theater shooting that left 12 people injured and three dead. We’ll also look at Planned Parenthood’s move to get out ahead of damning undercover videos which may or may not show them harvesting baby organs, Hillary’s ongoing State Department email debacle and updates on the amazing drug smuggling footage shot by Infowars reporters. Journalist and author Jim Marrs joins today’s show breaking down his latest book Population Control and the truths corporate owners don’t want you to discover. Survivalist expert, author and radio host Steve Quayle also gives his take on border security, the military’s Jade Helm exercises and more.


July 25, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

World Trade Slumps By Most Since Financial Crisis


  • World Trade Slumps By Most Since Financial Crisis
    by Tyler Durden,
    As goes the world, so goes America (according to 30 years of historical data), and so when world trade volumes drop over 2% (the biggest drop since 2009) in the last six months to the weakest since June 2014, the “US recession imminent” canary in the coalmine is drawing her last breath… 

    As Wolf Street’s Wolf Richter adds, this isn’t stagnation or sluggish growth. This is the steepest and longest decline in world trade since the Financial Crisis. Unless a miracle happened in June, and miracles are becoming exceedingly scarce in this sector, world trade will have experienced its first back-to-back quarterly contraction since 2009.

    Both of the measures above track import and export volumes. As volumes have been skidding, new shipping capacity has been bursting on the scene in what has become a brutal fight for market share[read… Container Carriers Wage Price War to Form Global Shipping Oligopoly].

    Hence pricing per unit, in US dollars, has plunged 14% since May 2014, and nearly 20% since the peak in March 2011. For the months of March, April, and May, the unit price index has hit levels not seen since mid-2009.

    read more.



July 25, 2015 Posted by | Economics | , , , | Leave a comment

Shock Report: China Dumps Half a Trillion Dollars: “Something Is Very, Very Wrong”


  • Shock Report: China Dumps Half a Trillion Dollars: “Something Is Very, Very Wrong”
    by Mac Slavo,  
    We’ve recently reported that China is preparing for something very big in currency markets this October. We then learned that economic models from two very well known financial forecasters are predicting that governments around the world will run into serious problems starting around October 2nd of this year. Those forecasts come on the heels of a warning issued by economic analyst Michael Snyder who says that a financial collapse is imminent within the next six months.

    A wide body of evidence suggests that something is in the works as economic numbers around the world are revealed to be nothing short of pure conjecture. Yet, despite the clearly disastrous direction in which the world is trending, politicians and media pundits maintain that whatever contagion existed has now been contained.

    But a shocking report from Zero Hedge suggests otherwise. According to one of the world’s leading financial web sites, major banking institutions like JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have been left speechless after the release of new data coming out of China. The news isn’t necessarily that China just reported a massive increase in its gold holdings of some 600 tons, but rather, that they have actively dumped hundreds of billions of dollars worth of U.S. Treasuries over the last 15 months, with some $224 billion having been offloaded in just the last 90 days.

    This has led many to speculate that the end for the world’s reserve currency is nigh.

    On Friday, alongside China’s announcement that it had bought over 600 tons of gold in “one month”, the PBOC released another very important data point: its total foreign exchange reserves, which declined by $17.3 billion to $3,694 billion.

    We then put China’s change in FX reserves alongside the total Treasury holdings of China and its “anonymous” offshore Treasury dealer Euroclear (aka “Belgium”) as released by TIC, and found that the dramatic relationship which we first discovered back in May, has persisted – namely virtually the entire delta in Chinese FX reserves come via China’s US Treasury holdings. As in they are being aggressively sold, to the tune of $107 billion in Treasury sales so far in 2015.

    JP Morgan Chase conclusion is actually quite stunning:
    This brings the cumulative capital outflow over the past five quarters to $520bn. Again, we approximate capital flow from the change in FX reserves minus the current account balance for each previous quarter to arrive at this estimate (Figure 2).

    read more.


July 24, 2015 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

‘V’ The Guerrilla Economist on Greece, China, Petrodollar Demise And More …

  • Published on Jul 23, 2015
    As events move fast in 2015 and the collapse accelerating towards a climax later this decade, V: The Guerrilla Economist joins me to discuss the implications of fast developing events in Greece, Europe, China, and the US… 

    “Banking was conceived in iniquity and born in sin”. – Josiah Stamp
    V Radio show:


July 24, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment


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