Socio-Economics History Blog

Socio-Economics & History Commentary

The Coming Collapse Will Be Talked About For Centuries… If We Are Even Still Here To Talk About It

  • Published on Apr 9, 2016
    Jeff is interviewed by Herchel 36 from Truth is Stranger than Fiction on the Beat 106 FM in Southern Spain. Topics include: the success of the Anarchapulco 2016 Conference, government is an unnecessary evil, transitioning to statelessness, Liberland, the TDV investing approach and The Beginners Guide to Investing, TDV Groups, the Shemitah event and the Super Shemitah economic crash in 2016, massive money printing and negative interest rates, most people are entirely unprepared, the cost of living is steadily increasing, hyperinflation in Europe, massive shortages in Venezuela, one world government and currency, dumbing down the population, the introduction of the Federal Reserve act and removal of the gold standard, the threat of a cashless society, the evils of central banking and the resulting impoverishment, depopulation, no-one notices as we enter the brave new world.

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April 11, 2016 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

James Rickards: Biggest Collapse Ever – Get Gold Now. Gold $10,000 to $50,000 per Ounce

  • James Rickards: Biggest Collapse Ever – Get Gold Now. Gold $10,000 to $50,000 per Ounce 
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 
    Financial expert and best-selling author James Rickards says another economic collapse is coming. Rickards contends, “It’s very clear, and you can prove this scientifically.  The next collapse will be bigger than anything in history or maybe since the Bronze Age or the fall of the Roman Empire.  Why do I say that? . . . We have these things coming together.  The system is larger.  That means systemically it is exponentially more risky.  The central banks don’t have any dry powder, and it is just a matter of time before the collapse comes.  In 1987, the stock market fell 22% in one day, not in a week or a month, but one day.  Today, that would be the equivalent of a 4,000 point drop. . . . In 1998, the Long Term Capital crisis shut almost every stock and bond exchange in the world.  In 2000, the Dot Com; 2007, the mortgage crisis; and in 2008, you had Lehman and AIG (failures).  In other words, these events are not rare, and they happen every three, four or five, six or eight years.  It’s not like clockwork, but nobody should be surprised if it happened tomorrow.  We’ve got the systemic scale.  We’ve got exponential increase in risk.  The central banks are out of dry powder, and it’s been eight years since the last one.  It’s just a matter of time.”


    Rickards, whose latest book is called “The New Case for Gold,” says the yellow metal is a necessary survival tool to combat the next crash.  Rickards, explains, “Part of the reason for having gold is, the next time, the response is going to be very different.  The last time, they printed money to bail out the system.  They can’t do that again because they never took the money back.  The balance sheets are still bloated. . . . All the global central banks are in terrible shape.  The central bank balance sheets look like really bad, highly leveraged hedge funds.  So, what are they going to do instead?  . . . . They are going to flood the zone with trillions of SDR’s (Special Drawing Rights currency from the IMF).  That’s going to be highly inflationary.  The other thing that’s going to happen is they are going to lock down the system.  They are not going to bail out the banks.  They are going to close the banks, close the exchanges and suspend redemptions in money market funds.  They will reprogram the ATM’s so you can only get $300 for gas and groceries.  It’s going to look like Greece or Cyprus.”

    read more.

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April 8, 2016 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Rally is Over, Crash to 6,000 Dow by 2017 – Harry Dent

  • For the record: I am not in agreement with Harry Dent on his views on gold. Hyperinflation or Deflation, gold is the asset class to be in. Some say that in a deflationary environment, gold does even better. I tend to agree.
  • Published on Mar 28, 2016
    GUEST: http://HarrDent.com Get his New Book! 

    http://DentResearch.comhttp://EconomyAndMarkets.com 

    TOPICS IN THIS INTERVIEW:
    01:05 Harry’s Last Predictions Correction
    01:45 Oil Price for 2016: $10 to $60 for Next Decade
    04:15 Everything in Bubble including Gold
    04:50 China’s Economic Deception
    05:20 Biggest Global Bubble Burst in Next 4 Years
    07:25 Central Banks Will Keep Printing into Catastrophe
    09:50 Will Gold Rally or Crash? Not Good in Deflation
    14:30 Dent’s Economic Models
    17:20 Where’s the Silver Lining? Will Improved Technology Help?
    20:00 Worse by 2020 to 2022

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April 6, 2016 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bo Polny: A Crash of Biblical Proportions is Coming! Gold & Silver to Skyrocket

  • Bo Polny: A Crash of Biblical Proportions is Coming! Gold & Silver to Skyrocket
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com   (Early Sunday Release) 
    Market cycle analyst Bo Polny says don’t bet on the U.S. dollar or the stock market to hold their value in 2016. Polny contends, “The dollar is going down with the stock market.  It did in December of 2015.  It did in August of 2015, and the dollar is falling right now again.  As soon as the stock market gets started to the downside, the dollar is going to go with it again.  So, the dollar is going to go down with the stock market with this next meltdown.  What’s going to end up happening when they hit the cycle low is what they did the last low (2009) and had QE 3.  Guess what, that’s going to mean (in the next crash) QE 4.  Then, that will mean they will be printing money like crazy.  Let’s say there is a 20% drop on the dollar, even 10%.  Everybody goes to sell the bonds.  If the 10-year is only giving 1.7% yield, if the dollar drops 10%, they are losing 8%.  If the dollar drops 20%, they are losing 18%.  So, all these countries will be losing on billions or trillions of dollars of bonds, and then you will get afire sale on bonds. Everyone will be dumping the bonds because they will be trying to get rid of them as fast as possible.  That is what’s going to happen when they announce QE 4.”

    How long will the stock market take to bottom in the next crash? At some point, the stock market will “walk off a cliff.” According to Polny, “It will go straight down . . . Yes. . . . I want to educate the world as to what I see because this is important.  What’s coming is Biblical.  People need to understand this.  This is not going to be a 1,000 or 2,000 point crash.  What’s coming is going to be world changing.  It’s going to come quick and fast, and what is going to rise out of the ashes is gold and silver.  If you don’t have it, you are going to have a big problem.”

    Polny says the time it takes the stock market to hit bottom from its prior top is getting shorter. The 2007 top to the 2009 bottom in the stock market took a little less than two years.  The latest top happened in July of 2015, and Polny says this top to bottom crash will take half the time of the last crash.  Polny predicts, “The next bottom will happen between now and this coming August. . . . This is going to be Biblically bad . . . . You are going to have a day where the Dow might drop 4,000 points . . . the next turn is going to be a crash low, and that’s supposed to come in the next few months.  Being long in the market is crazy.  We keep having lower highs. . . . Being long in the market is extremely dangerous.”

    Polny closed by pointing out, “The reason for the crash will be because gold and silver will be exploding higher. That is going to create a huge derivative issue.  That, then in turn, triggers the collapse and the meltdown of the stock market.”

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April 5, 2016 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Japan Economic MELTDOWN! Increase QE and Decrease Interest Rates

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March 30, 2016 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Japan Goes Full Krugman: Plans Un-Depositable, Non-Cash “Gift-Certificate” Money Drop To Young People

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  • Japan Goes Full Krugman: Plans Un-Depositable, Non-Cash “Gift-Certificate” Money Drop To Young People
    by Tyler Durden, http://www.zerohedge.com  
    The Swiss, the Finns, and the Ontarians may get their ‘Universal Basic Income’ but the Japanese are about to turn the Spinal Tap amplifier of extreme monetary experimentation to 11. Sankei reports, with no sourcing, that the Japanese government plans to unleash “vouchers” or “gift certificates” to low-income young people to stimulate the “conspicuous decline” in consumption among young people. The handouts may not be deposited, thus combining helicopter money (inflationary) and fully electronic currency (implicit capital controls and tracking of spending).

    Since Ben Bernanke reminded the world of the existence of government printing-presses, echoed Milton Friedman’s “helicopter drop” solution to fighting deflation, and decried Japan for not being as insane as it could be… it has only been a matter of time before some global central bank decided that the dropping of cash onto the populace was the key to economic recovery. Having blown their wad on QQE (and been left with a quintuple-dip recession) and unleashed NIRP, it appears Japan has reached that limit. As Bloomberg reports, 

    read more.

We will all be trillionaires but can't afford breakfast !

We will all be trillionaires but can’t afford breakfast !

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March 24, 2016 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Central Banks Are Already Doing the Unthinkable – You Just Don’t Know It

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  • Central banks are already doing the unthinkable – you just don’t know it
    by The lords of finance are losing their touch. Institutions which dragged the world from its worst depression since the early 20th century are finally seeing their magic desert them, if conventional wisdom is to be believed.

    Eight years on the from the Great Recession, voices as authoritative as the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of International Settlements – dubbed the ‘central bank of central banks’ – have called time on the era of extraordinary monetary policy.

    Having hoovered up $12.3 trillion (£8.5 trillion) in financial assets and carried out 637 interest rate cuts since 2008, central banks have been stunned back into action in the last six weeks. The Bank of Japan kicked off a new round of global easing with its decision to cross the rubicon into negative interest rate territory on January 29.

    Eurozone policymakers followed suit earlier this month with a triple whammy of interest rate cuts, €20bn in additional asset purchases a month, and an unprecedented move to allow commercial banks to borrow money at negative rates. The Federal Reserve has also taken its foot off the pedal by slashing its expected interest rate hikes from four a year to just two.

    read more.

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March 21, 2016 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Death of U.S. Dollar as Governments Dump U.S. Debt at RECORD RATE!

March 18, 2016 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Jim Rickards: Why Gold Is Going To $10,000

  • Published on Mar 15, 2016
    Bestselling author Jim Rickards sits down with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough to discuss his new book “The New Case for Gold” and why a cocktail of factors makes it more critical than ever for investors to protect their portfolios with gold.

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March 17, 2016 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Michael Pento: Record Swings of Deflation and Inflation Coming. Global Currency Depreciation Derby-Gold Big Winner

  • Michael Pento: Record Swings of Deflation and Inflation Coming. Global Currency Depreciation Derby-Gold Big Winner
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
    Money manager Michael Pento says the Fed and other global central banks are “not going to stop manipulating the markets.” Pento explains, “There is no escape from the manipulation by central banks and manipulation of asset prices. There is no escape of manipulation of interest rates, of money supply growth, of stock values and of bond prices. They can never stop. . . . Just a hint that this massive manipulation of all markets and asset classes might end someday sends them crashing. So, there is no escape in Japan, China, Europe and the United States. That means we are headed for massive bouts of wild swings between inflation and deflation, the likes of which we have never before seen in the history of economics.”


    Pento contends the manipulation will stop when countries “lose control of their currencies.” Pento contends, China may be the first big domino to fall and points out, “China is going to lose control of its currency. They have more bad loans today, about $650 billion worth of defaulting loans, than our entire subprime mortgage market circa 2006. Their currency has to collapse. They are trying to manage this, and they manage everything to the hundredth decimal point in China. China manages everything, and they admit to it. . . . They are trying to not let bad loans wash out. They are trying to keep them afloat. What’s going to give way is their currency. The renminbi is going to collapse. That has massive repercussions to all those East Asian trading blocks and their relationship to the dollar’s value. This is not going to go away. China is a Sino scam artist country, and it will collapse just like the rest of the world’s markets and economy.”

    read more.

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March 17, 2016 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Currencies Around The World Race To ZERO — Jeff Nielson

  • Published on Mar 13, 2016
    Mario Draghi pledged to destroy the Euro last week with Bazooka money, Japan continues to debase the Yen, Venezuela has hit outright hyperinflationary status, and currencies around the world are in an unprecedented suicidal race to zero – while the blasphemous Banksters in the City of London lick their chops on Threadneedle Street, as their plans to kill cash entirely are well underway. In an environment such as this, there remains only one good question: Got PHYSICAL gold and silver?

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March 15, 2016 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Economic Collapse Of South America Is Well Underway

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  • The Economic Collapse Of South America Is Well Underway
    by Michael Snyder, http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/  
    The 7th largest economy on the entire planet is completely imploding.  I have written previously about the economic depression that is plaguing Brazil, but since my last article it has gotten much, much worse.  During 2015, Brazil’s economy shrank by 3.8 percent, but for the most recent quarter the decline was 5.89 percent on a year over year basis.  Unemployment is rising rapidly, the inflation rate is up over 10 percent, and Brazilian currency has lost 24 percent of its value compared to the U.S. dollar over the past 12 months.

    At this point, Brazil is already experiencing its longest economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s, and things are getting worse for ordinary Brazilians every single day.  The following comes from CNN… 

    But with Brazil plunging into its worst recession in over two decades — hopes for a brighter future are fading. The Brazilian economy shrank 3.8% in 2015, according to government data published Thursday. That’s the biggest annual drop since 1990 and the country is in its longest recession since the 1930s.

    I have never seen anything like this,” said Alves, 24, as he stood on his balcony overlooking Rocinha, a massive lower middle class neighborhood or favela in Rio de Janeiro where he grew up. “My parents would tell me about hard times, but today it is really tough. Prices are going up every day.”

    read more.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-22/what-death-nation-looks-venezuela-prepares-720-hyperinflation

Click on image for article.

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March 5, 2016 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

“There Will Be Hyperinflation” Japanese Lawmaker Warns “Kuroda Got It Wrong” With NIRP

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February 24, 2016 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , | Comments Off on “There Will Be Hyperinflation” Japanese Lawmaker Warns “Kuroda Got It Wrong” With NIRP

Why Negative Interest Rates Spell Doom for Capitalism

Don't you see the Illuminist pyramid and Satanic capstone on your dollar bill? The symbol of the Anti-Christ.

Don’t you see the Illuminist pyramid and Satanic capstone on your dollar bill? The symbol of the Anti-Christ.

  • If I can make money simply by borrowing money from the bank (ie. NIRP), why then bother to invest in business? Why even get out of bed and go to work? The more money I borrow, the more interests the bank pays me when interest rates go negative. Would a bank pay you money to lend you money? They will go bust. Will a central bank pay commercial banks interests to lend them money? They will go bust. NIRP is nonsensical. What will happen is: the economy will grind to a halt as loans contract. Confidence in central banks and commercial banks will collapse since they will not be profitable. Confidence in the monetary and financial system will crash. The final end is: global economic, financial and currency collapse.
  • In a deflationary environment: asset prices collapse. Business will avoid investment since buyers will hold back on purchase on expectations of even cheaper prices. It means excess capacity will build up and worker retrenchments will follow. It becomes a vicious cycle as more deflation leads to even worst economic conditions and even lesser demand resulting in more worker retrenchments, resulting in even less economic demand …
  • Why Negative Interest Rates Spell Doom for Capitalism
    by Robert Romano, http://netrightdaily.com/ 
    Interest rates in Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, the European Central Bank and now the Bank Japan have now plunged into negative territory, starting a new phase in the era of central banking that is very much uncharted.

    Time will tell if it leaves the global economy lost at sea.
    So far, banks are primarily being charged for keeping excess reserves on account at these central banks, a policy designed to jumpstart lending by making it more expensive for banks to sit on reserves. In some cases, like Sweden, the deposit rates have gone negative, too.

    Whether it will all work out or not remains to be seen — initiating inflation and economic growth.  Maybe it will, but so far it’s not really looking good. So what if it doesn’t work? The longer term implication is that central banks will then feel compelled to move their discount rates and other rates negative, too. Once that Pandora’s Box is open, it will mean that when financial institutions borrow money from the central bank, they will earn interest instead of owing it.

    You read that right. When, not if, central banks go completely negative, they will wind up paying banks to borrow money from them. That’s quantitative easing by another name.

    Say, the interest rate is -1 percent. For every $1 trillion that is lent, the central bank in theory would owe an additional $10 billion in interest to the borrowing banks. Fast forward 10 or 20 years into the future. Can you imagine a world where commercial banks pay their customers to borrow money?

    Sure, scoff now. But mark my words. Central banks are so desperate to kick start the economy and credit creation, they will do almost anything. So, if they have to bribe you to borrow money to start acquiring more things, then that’s exactly what they’ll do.

    A few problems immediately emerge. If it ends up costing money for banks to lend money, how will they make any profits? The answer might be that the profits will be the difference between the interest earned from that bank borrowing the money from the central bank less the interest owed to the borrowing customer.

    So, say the bank borrowed from the central bank at -5 percent and then issued a loan with that money at -1 percent. The customer still earns 1 percentage point of negative interest, and the bank still gets to pocket the remaining 4 percentage points of negative interest from the central bank.

    But what about savers? Would they be charged just to put money into the bank? If so, why would they keep it there? Since banks depend on deposits to make up their capital requirements, they would have a powerful disincentive against charging customers to keep deposits, lest it provoke a run on the banks.

    Which brings us to the issue of deflation. By going negative, are not central banks basically forecasting that deflation — that is, outright asset price depreciation whether in stock prices or home values — is at hand? Perhaps banks can get by in such an environment since they apparently plan on getting paid to borrow money. But what about everyone else?

    For, what negative interest rates are really projecting are low-to-no growth and zero-profit environments for the entire global economy sometime in the future, where businesses simply cannot make money. Not now, but perhaps soon.

    In the Great Depression, when it came to such price volatilities for, say, farmers, the government instituted a series of agricultural subsidies to keep the farms profitable so they could pay their mortgages.

    The implication of no growth and deflation today are that all businesses will come to the government seeking subsidies. We already see it in agriculture. Education. Health care. Housing. Whether it is loan programs for customers or outright grants. There will be more.

    This is why capitalism cannot survive no growth. Economies would naturally revert to some form of subsistence, where the need to trade is reduced greatly. But investors demand return on investment. Remember, it’s a world without profits. In a no-growth, deflationary environment, those who over-produce are the ones who get punished by markets. So businesses will demand subsidies for their surplus stock, or for not producing at all, as in the Depression.

    read more.

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February 19, 2016 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Why Negative Interest Rates Spell Doom for Capitalism

Negative Interest Rates Are a Calamitous Misadventure

Newspaper-With-Financial-Collapse

  • NIRP is bad for banks and the economy. It will NOT work. No banks will loan money at zero or negative interest rates. They will not make money at zero percent and will lose money at NIRP. The banks will contract their existing loan portfolio when interest rates become zero and negative. Calling back loans will apply a contractionary pressure on the economy. Customers who cannot find refinancing will have to sell their assets and this will apply a deflationary pressure as asset prices collapse.
  • Similarly, when banks do not loan out money due to zero or NIRP, the economy will contract. Economic growth is fueled by financing (ie. debt, loans). People (most of us) do not buy a house by paying 100% of the price. We pay a deposit 10-20% down and borrow the rest. In the same way, infrastructure developments: roads, trains, buildings, airports, water system …. are only build when there is financing.
  • Why would anyone deposit money in the bank when it has NIRP and a bail-in rule as law (as in America and Europe). The answer is: money will flee the banking system and look for a place, an asset class as store of value. Even if cash is banned, depositors will flee to hard asset that is a great store of value. Obviously, the premier store of value throughout 5000+ years of history is physical gold/silver.
  • When depositors flee from money/cash in the bank to hard assets it is inflationary. Things that are bought with cash like food, gold, silver, water, petrol … will experience sharp increases in price ie. hyperinflation. Things that are bought with debt financing ie. a building, house, car, boat … are unlikely to face hyperinflation since banks in a NIRP environment are unwilling to extend loans. There will be a dichotomy: hyperinflation and deflation., The poor who spend a major percentage of their money on food, transport (ie. cash bought items)… will suffer the most.
  • Followed to its logical conclusion, NIRP implies economic and financial system collapse. As deflationary pressure sets in, it becomes a vicious cycle for assets. But as people flee cash/money into hard assets, the currency will collapse.
  • So why are Illuminist central banksters moving towards NIRP? It is a deliberate execution of a Satanic plan to trigger global economic, financial and currency meltdown. This is so that they can introduce their Luciferian New World Order, One World Government led by the Anti-Christ, Global Supra-National Central Bank, One World Currency backed by gold –> ‘666’. The path towards the endgame goes through Albert Pike’s Satanic WW3.
  • What the article below suggests: helicopter money is economic heresy. It will end in monetary/currency collapse ie. hyperinflation.
  • Negative Interest Rates Are a Calamitous Misadventure
    by , http://www.telegraph.co.uk/  
    When the debt-laden world faces the next global downturn, it will need the full power of helicopter money, not interest rate gimmicks

    The world’s central banks should take a deep breath and step back from the calamitous misadventure of negative interest rates. Whatever theoretical profit can be mined from this thin seam, it is entirely overwhelmed by the slow ruin of the banking system.


    Huw Van Steenis, from Morgan Stanley, calls negative rates (NIRP) a“dangerous experiment” that undermines the mechanism of quantitative easing rather than reinforcing it, and ultimately induces banks to shrink their loan books – the exact opposite of what is intended.

    The market verdict on the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank speaks for itself. Bank equities have crashed by 32pc in Japan and by 26pc in the eurozone since early December.

    “Financial markets increasingly view these experimental moves as desperate,” said Scott Mather, from the giant bond fund Pimco. The policy blunder is creating a false fear that central banks have run out ammunition. It is distracting attention from the real failings of the global policy regime: lack of willingness to launch a New Deal and inject money directly into the veins of the real economy through fiscal stimulus when needed, and arguably to do so with turbo-charged effect through central bank transfers rather than debt issuance.

    read more.

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February 19, 2016 Posted by | Economics, EndTimes | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Negative Interest Rates Are a Calamitous Misadventure

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