Socio-Economics History Blog

Socio-Economics & History Commentary

High Probability That 50% Of The Population Will Not Make It Through The Collapse: James Rawles

September 10, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Jim Willie: Updates in the Petrodollar War – China, Iran and QE … Pedophile Satanic Banker Cabal

September 10, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Buiter: Only “Helicopter Money” Can Save The World From The Next Recession


  • WooHoo! Show me the money! Show me the money!
  • Buiter: Only “Helicopter Money” Can Save The World From The Next Recession
    by Tyler Durden,  
    It is to be expected that economists – even economists working for the same team – have different views about the likelihood of different future outcomes. Economics isn’t rocket science, and even rockets frequently land in the wrong place or explode in mid-air.

    That rather hilarious characterization of the pseudoscience that is economics comes from the desk of Citi’s Chief Economist Willem Buiter and it’s apparently evidence that even if you don’t think too much of his views on “pet rocks” (gold is a 6,000 year-old bubble) or on the efficacy and/or utility of physical banknotes (ban cash), you’d be hard pressed to disagree with him when it comes to critiquing his profession. Of course we don’t want to give Buiter too much credit here because the quote shown above could simply be an attempt to stamp a caveat emptor on his latest prediction in case, like his predictions on when Greece would ultimately leave the euro, it turns out to be wrong. 

    As tipped by comments made at the Council of Foreign Relations in New York late last month, Buiter is out with a damning look at the global economy which he says will be drug kicking and screaming into a recession by the turmoil in China and the unfolding chaos in EM. Here’s the call: 
    As you might have guessed, Buiter thinks there’s only one way out of this: helicopter money. And not just in the US, but in Europe (against the protestations of what Buiter calls the “Teutonic fringe”) and indeed across all DMs and also in China. 

    Helicopter money drops would be the best instrument to tackle a downturn in all DMs. In the Eurozone, a significant Teutonic fringe believe that a fiscal stimulus is contractionary and that monetization of public debt and deficits is a sure road to hyperinflation. It is a widely held view that Article 123 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union forbids monetization of public debt and thus makes a helicopter money drop in the Eurozone impossible. Debt-financed (non-monetised) fiscal expansions run into the twin obstacles of an already excessive public debt in most Eurozone member states and the pro-cyclical nature of the constraints imposed by the Stability and Growth Pact and its myriad offspring, operated out of Brussels.

    read more.


We will all be trillionaires but can't afford breakfast !

We will all be trillionaires but can’t afford breakfast !


September 10, 2015 Posted by | Economics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Jim Willie: The Collapse Has Begun

September 9, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Rob Kirby: Not A Financial Crash But Dark Ages Coming! America is Burning, More Money Printing Coming

  • Published on Sep 6, 2015
    Financial analyst Rob Kirby contends central banks are putting off the coming crash. Kirby says, “These guys are playing with fire. They are desperate and are cornered. The only thing they have left in their bag are dirty tricks and lies, and they are playing them aggressively. When you are lying and telling untruths to the rest of the world, the rest of the world doesn’t stay stupid for very long. It catches up with you, and that’s when your friends start creating currency swap lines with your vaunted enemies. They think they want to have a foot in the other camp because the old camp they used to be with isn’t playing fair and is doing despicable things. That is exactly where we are right now—burning.”

    How bad will it get and when is the next crash coming? Kirby contends, “I think it is unwinding in front of our eyes. I think when it blooms in its full glory, it is not going to be called a crash. It’s going to be called the dark ages.”

    Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Rob Kirby of
    Full article:… 


September 7, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Europe’s Biggest Bank Dares To Ask: Is The FedRes Preparing For A “Controlled Demolition” Of The Market


  • For all those who thinks that the FedRes will never raise interest rates because it will collapse the world economy and financial system: I don’t think so. They forget history: the 1929 – 1933 Great Depression was caused by the FedRes. A “calculated ‘shearing’ of the public” as Curtis Dall puts it above. The next FOMC meeting is on 16-17 Sep 2015. There is every possibility that they will raise rates. Friendly advice, once again: Got physical gold/silver yet?
  • Remember the Hegelian Dialectic: they create the Problem and then ride in pretending to be saviors with their pre-planned Solution! The Illuminist (ie. Satanic) Order Out of Chaos philosophy.
  • Europe’s Biggest Bank Dares To Ask: Is The Fed Preparing For A “Controlled Demolition” Of The Market
    by Tyler Durden,  
    … But it was the conclusion to Deutsche’s stream of consciousness that is the real shocker: in it DB’s Dominic Konstam implicitly ask out loud whether what comes next for global capital markets (most equity, but probably rates as well), is nothing short of a controlled demolition. A premeditated controlled demolition, and facilitated by the Fed’s actions or rather lack thereof: 

    The more sinister undercurrent is that as the relationship between negative rates has tightened with weaker liquidity since the crisis, there is a sense that policy is being priced to “fail” rather than succeed. Real rates fall when central banks back away from stimulus presumably because they “think” they have done enough and the (global) economy is on a healing trajectory. This could be viewed as a damning indictment of policy and is not unrelated to other structural factors that make policy less effective than it would be otherwise – including the self evident break in bank multipliers due to new regulations and capital requirements.

    What would happen then? Well, DB casually tosses an S&P trading a “half its value”, but more importantly, also remarks that what we have also said from day one, namely that “helicopter money” in whatever fiscal stimulus form it takes (even if it is in the purest literal one) is the only remaining outcome after a 50% crash in the S&P:

    Of course our definition of “failure” may also be a little zealous. After all why should equities always rise in value? Why should debt holders be expected to afford their debt burden? There are plenty of alternative viable equilibria with SPX half its value, longevity liabilities in default and debt deflation in abundance. In those equilibria traditional QE ceases to work and the only road back to what we think is the current desired equilibrium is via true helicopter money via fiscal stimulus where there are no independent central banks. 

    And there it is: Deutsche Bank saying, in not so many words, what Ray Dalio hinted at, namely that the Fed’s tightening would be the mechanistic precursor to a market crash and thus, QE4.

    Only Deutsche takes the answer to its rhetorical question if the Fed is preparing for a “controlled demolition” of risk assets one step forward: realizing that at this point more QE will be self-defeating, the only remaining recourse to avoid what may be another systemic catastrophe would be the one both Friedman and Bernanke hinted at many years ago: the literal paradropping of money to preserve the fiat system for just a few more days (At this point we urge rereading footnote 18 in Ben Bernanke’s Deflation: Making Sure “It” Doesn’t Happen Here” speech)

    While we can only note that the gravity of the above admission by Europe’s largest bank can not be exaggerated – for “very serious banks” to say this, something epic must be just over the horizon – we should add: if Deutsche Bank (with its €55 trillion in derivatives) is right and if the Fed refuses to change its posture, exposure to any asset which has counterparty risk and/or whose value is a function of faith in central banks, should be effectively wound down.

    read more.


Yellen: "I need bigger and more helicopters!"

Yellen: “I need bigger and more helicopters!”



September 7, 2015 Posted by | Economics, History | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Turd Ferguson: Hyperinflation And Economic Collapse Coming To U.S.

  • Note: I usually find arguments over hyperinflation or deflation as unnecessary and too academic. If you define hyperinflation as a monetary phenomenon best measured by an increase in money supply, then clearly the US (and much of the world) is in hyperinflation (because of QE). This is best shown by the inflated stock markets (and asset prices) around the world since 2008.
  • The way I see it, the coming collapse will be marked by both hyperinflation and deflation. And not just 1 or the other. For asset prices, I define these: as stuff that need financing (ie. debt) to purchase (like real estate, stock… ), it will be deflationary. For items that are largely purchased with cash, like food, groceries … ie. without debt financing , it will be hyperinflationary. Precious metals will hyperinflate as the public flees currency collapse into hard assets.


September 5, 2015 Posted by | Economics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Jim Willie: Hidden Trillion$ QE, Stock Market Fraud, Oil Derivatives Mayhem, More…

  • Published on Sep 3, 2015
    Sept. 2, 2015 / Dr. Jim Willie joins Paul Sandhu on Wake up and Live Radio to discuss the following:

    Hidden Trillion$ QE?
    1-Are $trillions in QE volume being hidden in dispensation for banker benefit ? How is it being done ? For what purpose ?

    Stock market Roller Coaster – headed up or down?
    2-Have we entered an unstable period where the major stock indexes will go haywire? Why has the USFed included stocks with its controversial bond purchases ?

    Oil price volatility and its significance
    3-Why is the crude oil stuck low? What are consequences for USEconomy & big banks ? Is there a new wrinkle to the energy world to become evident in the next few years ?
    -PetroDollar machinery has been undergoing a vast dismantle for almost a year
    -evidence is falling oil price and rising USDollar exchange rates

    4- What can be expected with violent incidents like the 2 chemical plant explosions following the Chinese RMB devaluation ? What exactly is the threat to the USDollar from such devaluations ?
    -RMB devaluation means triggered Competing Currency War (competitive devaluations)
    -high USDollar is soon to be recognized as a major problem across the world
    -Currency War means USD will be pushed higher in an accelerating vicious cycle
    -USGovt has boasted like fools of strong USD being an advantage, but it is death knell

    5-What is the significance of Gold & Silver during the financial bust and reconstruction of the next financial and trade structure to come ? Does it truly offer protection, and how so?

    US Prez. elections, just theatre of the absurd or of any real significance?

    6-What is your impression of the US Presidency, as an office, and its recent lineage ?
    -has been theater of controlled puppets for 20 years
    -easy to conclude that Red coats and Blue coats are two items in the Narco Fascist wardrobe

    Dr. Jim Willie Website:


September 4, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Petrodollar Unwinding Will Decimate The Economy

  • Published on Aug 31, 2015
    Foreign investors are nervous and they are removing their investments from China. Japan factory output declines. Canada is heading into a major recession. Chicago PMI and Dallas manufacturing implode. Walmart give employees a raise then cuts hours. Retail department stores is now declining. Central banks removing their gold from the FED. The petrodollar is unwinding which will send the economy into a full blown collapse. Central bankers are now blaming this collapse on China. Obamacare Cadillac tax kicks in the year 2018.




September 1, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Citigroup Chief Economist Thinks Only “Helicopter Money” Can Save The World Now

Yellen: "I need bigger and more helicopters!"

Yellen: “I need bigger and more helicopters!”


Baby Janet Yellen training for QE.

Baby Janet Yellen training for QE.

Janet Yellen: You ain't seen nothing yet!

Janet Yellen: You ain’t seen nothing yet!



August 31, 2015 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Jim Willie Alert: The Global Financial War Is Now Full-Blown HOT!

  • Published on Aug 28, 2015
    Jim Willie Is Pete’s special guest tonight and says any Nation that has a devaluation in the future can look forward to a military attack … The type of attack may surprise you.

    About Jim Willie: The man behind the name Jim Willie has experience in three important fields of statistical practice in the 23 years following completion of a PhD in Statistics at Carnegie Mellon University. The thesis topic was in the field of stochastic processes. He spent time since 2001 in a private consulting firm in Pittsburgh, PA. The work included pharmaceutical and medical claim estimation, stratified sampling for consumer packaged goods market share, training seminars in advanced regression models, and consulting toward various other projects within the firm. In August of 2003, he became a low-cost solution at his firm, the job as vanished, which opened a great door. At that time, he launched the Hat Trick Letter and the rest is history.

    Since 2004, Jim has worked full-time on the newsletter. The work is focused exclusively on the US and world economies, financial markets, currencies, and the commodity fields. Gold and energy, along with central bank monetary policy have been a prime focus in the Hat Trick Letter, which has reached a 10-year anniversary in May of 2014. The list of correct mega-forecasts is long, the focus sharp, the scope global, the sources deep, the colleagues adept, and the work tireless. Not having a professional training in Economics has enabled a much clearer analytic style, free from delusion and defense of the system. While the profession boasts a correct forecast rate of about 30%, the Jackass carries a near 90% correct forecast rate, since criminal activity and market interference are well integrated in the work, and propaganda from Wall Street, the Federal Reserve, and the USGovt are routinely doubted and dismissed. The economics professor has turned into a disgraceful field of big bank marketing agencies and investment steering committees. As he prefers to say, “My work is unencumbered by the limitations of economics credentials. My loyalty is to the subscribers and loyal following.”


August 31, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Jim Willie: We Are At War!

  • Jim Willie: We Are At War!
    Will Lehr of Perpetual Assets Interviews Dr. Jim Willie, editor of the Hat Trick Letter on 

    Jim is back, fired up and full of information. We cover the below topics for an hour and a half session. 

    Has the Financial & Trade War Turned into a Hot War?
    Jim says, definitely yes. Tianjin, China is the most strategic business, tech, info and database center in the nation. The explosion was certainly the result of an attack, among other connections between currency devaluation events and violent explosions (see Bangkok). One item of intrigue is that the devaluation of currency means USD lifted higher, and much like a balloon pops if it rises too much (from pressure differential). The devaluation trend will catch fire, and accelerate the USDollar death spiral. RMB devaluation started a trend, sure to result in Competing Currency War. USGovt and USFed masters do not want USD to be given an accelerant booster rocket.

    What is the Interpretation of the Stock Market Nose Dives?
    It begins with the USEconomy stuck in deep recession for six years (now depression). In fact, calling a depression a recovery is the ultimate in Third World propaganda. Yellen is the American version of Mugabe from Zimbabwe (unclear why took Fed post). The Wiley Coyote moment is here. Fed rate hike talk might be more like “HIKE OR DIE” moment or “DIE EVEN IF HIKE.” It is game over for sovereign debt foundation for USDollar. The initial damage from bond fracture realization is with equities (stocks). Could be USFed & Wall St have arranged 1000-pt down opens so as to create USTBond demand during the Chinese dumping exercise (act of financial war)? And the irony: US Langley attacked Chinese stocks, but China dumps USTBonds to shore up financial market. Stocks are the first major casualty, but energy sector losses are with corporate bonds. A 50% correction is appropriate for the USEconomy in depression and PE ratios double the norm. US Stocks no longer a forward indicator of economic performance. ZIRP has had no effect on USEconomy or housing market in kickstart (CAPEX in EmgMkt)

    Is It Crunch Time with US Treasuries & China Dumping $100BN per Week?
    We are now in QE to Infinity Squared mode. At this rate, China would dump all its holdings in ten weeks. Gulf Emirates have $2.2 trillion in toilet paper assets (mostly in USTreasurys), add in another couple loose $trillion out there and the numbers are big. Games like BLICS doubling the New York QE volume will no longer work. QE has ruined the integrity of USTreasury Bonds. USFed must cover the global dumping of USTBonds (confidence to go next). QE to Infinity Squared precedes rejection of USTBills in trade. RMB to be demanded/required/norm in trade settlement with Eastern export nations.

    What The Heck is Happening with the Silver Market Disconnect?
    Default will occur in silver market first, not gold. Physical supplies are the tightest we’ve ever seen. The supply side has not caught up since the US Mint suspension of sales in early July, in fact, it has gotten worse. Premiums and delays have increased on all silver products. Acute shortages have gone worse, with the official mints announcing suspended sales. Jim says gold fights the political battles, but silver will take away the majority of the spoils (2x VS 3x). JPMorgan is on list of Authorized Purchasers to steal supply, just like GLD/SLV funds. The third largest US wholesaler & distributor with 21 warehouses has been cleaned out of ALL silver. Live product dealers are all sold out, coin dealer shows are empty of silver coins and Johnson Matthey & Engelhard went No Offer on 100-oz bars. German gold demand is twice that of the US, and Eastern gold demand is twice the West. Shanghai gold demand is over 73 tons per week (steadily over 50 tons/wk). India gold demand is up 61% in April & May 2015 (versus same months 2014).

    read more.


August 28, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Warning!! Global Meltdown: September and October 2015 Could Be The Most Tumultuous in Generations!

  • Published on Aug 24, 2015
    With the global economic meltdown already in full swing, the months of September and October 2015 could be looked back on in years to come as the most tumultuous in generations. Here’s what they’re NOT telling you about how this came about.
Financial Armageddon dead ahead !

Financial Armageddon dead ahead !


August 26, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Gerald Celente: Gold Is The Safe Haven for Coming Collapse

  • Gerald Celente – Gold Is The Safe Haven for Coming Collapse
    Greg Hunter’s  (Early Sunday Release)
    Top trends researcher Gerald Celente has recently predicted a market crash between now and the end of the year. It looks like that prediction is unfolding now, and Celente contends, “It’s very simple. You have a global slowdown, and this is after central banks have pumped in trillions of dollars, yen, yuan, euros and you name it to propping it up. We are in unprecedented territory. This has never happened before in the history of the world. . . . Even the Wall Street Journal came out last week with a front page story and said the Fed used up all its ammunition. They have nothing left to do because they have record low interest rates, but I disagree with them. I believe they will come out with another round of quantitative easing (QE or money printing). They will do anything they can. It looks pretty sure they are not going to raise interest rates in September. . . . What is going to create jobs? The jobs they are creating stink. Here’s a number for you. Medium household income is 6% below where it was in 1990.   Look at the new home buyers. In good times, first time buyers are usually around 40%. It is down to 28%. Look at the amount of people who own homes. It’s back to 1960 levels. Look at the labor force participation rate. It is back to late 1970’s levels. There is no recovery. It’s been a cover-up.”

    Celente sees stocks and bonds taking a big hit, while gold prices spike. Celente explains, “By the end of the year, the equity markets will be down by more than 20%. Look at the NASDAQ. It’s below 5,000. The last time the NASDAQ was at 5,000 was March of 2000. That was 15 years ago. I am bullish on gold. I believe when gold prices go up, they are going to spike up. We believe, and we are on record, that the bottom in gold is between $1,000 per ounce to $1,150 per ounce. That was the downside risk because it doesn’t pay to pull it out of the ground at any level lower than that. It’s not like oil where you have to keep pumping just to keep things going. Now, we believe that when gold prices go up, they are going to skyrocket up. We are looking for gold to beat its 2011 level when it was $1,927 per ounce. We believe it is going to go over $2,000 per ounce. We are not as bullish on silver because silver is used for production, and we don’t see production increasing. Silver is a manufacturing metal, as well. However, having said that, it will not go down along with other raw materials. It will probably rise, but not at the pace we see gold rising. Gold has been looked upon as when all else fails, there is gold. People will be looking for a safe haven commodity when this all begins to collapse. You are going to see riots in Brazil and more riots in Venezuela. I just got back from Italy. There are migrants everywhere. You got a war in Libya. You got a war in Syria. You got a war in Iraq. You got a war in Yemen. You got a war in Afghanistan. You have destabilization from Mali to the Congo, central Africa to Sudan to Somalia. These people are flooding out into Europe. There is no way of stopping this wave because besides the wars, you have crashing commodity prices.  Commodities were holding these countries together as they were exporting it to China when China was manufacturing. This is when the Americans and Europeans were buying. What you are looking at are crises coming from many different levels. We are talking about economy, geo politics and civil wars to regional wars and social unrest.”


August 24, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bill Holter: This Economic Collapse Will Push The US Into A 3rd World Country. Global Reset is Coming!

August 24, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment


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