Socio-Economics History Blog

Socio-Economics & History Commentary

More Economic Indicators Are Signalling An Economic Collapse Is Headed Our Way

  • Published on Sep 28, 2015
    More layoffs, China coal company lays off 100,000 employees. Personal income continues flat lining as savings dries up. 9.4 million Americans below poverty line. Another FED signals a collapse is headed our way. More and more indicators are signalling a economic collapse. Pending home sales decline, the real estate echo bubble is about to pop. Unemployment is no where near 5.1% it is more like 25%. UBS watchdog looking into gold manipulation.


September 29, 2015 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Chinese Aircraft Carrier Docks At Syrian Port


September 29, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

This Is When Junk Bonds Go Kaboom!

Junk_Bonds_2007_8_compared to_2014_5


  • This Is When Junk Bonds Go Kaboom! 
    by Tyler Durden,  
    We have been warning for months that high-yield bonds have decoupled from equity markets, just as they did in 2007/8, and the credit cycle’s turning will inevitably flow through to crush the only thing left supporting stock valuations – the irrational non-economic corporate buyback-er. However, as we detail below, time’s running out and it’s getting tougher out there for our QE and ZIRP-coddled corporate junk-bond heroes.

    As’s Wolf Richter details, the toxic miasma of “distressed debt” is ready to go kaboom… 
    It’s getting tougher out there for our QE and ZIRP-coddled corporate junk-bond heroes.

    Unisys, whose revenues and profits decline year after year and whose stock dropped from over $400 a share during the prior tech bubble to $13 a share now, withdrew its offer to sell $350 million of bonds on Friday.

    The “current terms and conditions available in the market were not attractive for the company to move forward,” it said. According to S&P Capital IQ’s LCD, the five-year senior secured notes due in 2020, rated BB/Ba2, had been guided at around 8%. But buyers were leery, and they demanded more yield. They wanted to be rewarded just a little more for the substantial risk they were taking. So the notes failed to price, and Unisys withdrew the offering.

    read more.


September 29, 2015 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , | Leave a comment

Glencore Could Trigger A Global Derivatives Nuclear Meltdown


World War 3 is near?

  • Glencore Could Trigger A Global Derivatives Nuclear Meltdown
    The middle class in America is like the housewife who knows her husband is cheating on her but she chooses to ignore it and pretend it will stop.   – Anonymous FOD – Friend of Dave’s

    The system has been totally hijacked.  Make NO mistake about it, gold was hit hard when the paper trading in London cranked up after the SGE had turned off its lights for the day. The reason:  Glencore.

    Anyone remember Enron?  Probably not.  Most people have already forgotten, mostly, that their taxpayer dollars were used by ex-Goldman CEO Henry Paulson to bail out Goldman Sachs in 2008 when he was Treasury Secretary.  His primary motive was to preserve the value of the $250 million in warrants he still owned after he got to unload $500 million in stock – tax-free.  Recently Zerohedge found a snapshot of Paulson laughing about the entire matter.

    Glencore is going to make Enron look like a polite tea and cake break.  Gold was smashed when paper London opened because the Fed, BoE and ECB can not under any circumstances let the price of gold spike up – like it should be doing – and thereby alert the world that there’s a big problem in the world of derivatives related to Glencore, among other “things” (Emerging Market FX contract, energy, Biotech ETFs, etc).

    The issue with Glencore, since we all saw it coming which means the Central Banks saw it coming, is the degree to which the CB’s have been able to “brace” for its impact.  The problem, however, is that just like Enron and the big banks before it, there is  100% probability that Glencore upper management has:  a)  lied about the market value of its assets, both on and off balance sheet;  b)  has lied about the true amount and nature of its derivatives exposure;  c) has been lied to by rank and file who are in charge of accounting and reporting the data to upper management (trust, me I know this goes on because I saw it first-hand at Bankers Trust;  and foremost, e)  has NO idea the true nature of its total exposure to the full lunar eclipse world of OTC derivatives.

    read more.
Paul Wilmott, who holds a doctorate in applied mathematics from Oxford University, has warned that the so-called notional value of the worldwide derivatives market is over $1.4 quadrillion (Quadrillion = 1000 Trillion).

Paul Wilmott, who holds a doctorate in applied mathematics from Oxford University, has warned that the so-called notional value of the worldwide derivatives market is over $1.4 quadrillion (Quadrillion = 1000 Trillion).


September 29, 2015 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Waiting for Collapse: USA Debt Bombs Bursting




  • Waiting for Collapse: USA Debt Bombs Bursting 
    by It’s been so easy the past 15 years for local governments in the USA, state governments, government authorities, corporations, banks, hedge funds and the US Federal government to simply say how many millions, billions or trillions of dollars they wanted, pay some high priced call accountants to fill out some paperwork with fine print and voila, millions, billions and trillions of dollars in borrowed money simply appeared. It has been that easy!

    Now, the government in the USA owes $46 trillion, US corporations owe $15 trillion, US individuals owe $13 trillion plus there are $315 trillion in outstanding Wall Street derivatives. (Few Americans know what a derivative is, but we as a nation are on the hook for up to $315 trillion in additional debt because of these derivatives.) These debt figures continue to escalate with each passing month.

    Detroit and Puerto Rico have only just begun the debt bombs bursting in the USA, the USA’s slow motion economic collapse. Who’s next? I’m going to tell you about some US local and state governments that have too much debt and are ripe for debt collapse along with a few US government authorities and corporations that borrowed too much money and are also ripe for debt collapse.

    Mr. Dudley of the New York Federal Reserve Bank recently warned of a wave of US municipal debt collapses coming soon. The problem is bigger than solely US municipalities as Mr. Dudley no doubt is aware. Chicago or LA, which one is more likely to collapse first? Chicago. Kanakee County IL or Perry County KY? Kanakee County is more likely to go belly up first. Atlantic City (AC) or Yonkers? AC is more likely to bite the dust first. 1 out of 25 states are ready to collapse within months, as are 1 out of 20 US cities, 1 out of 15 US government authorities and 1 out of 7 US corporations. Within a few years, many US cities, counties, authorities, states and corporations will have debt collapsed, before the USA as a nation debt collapses. A tsunami of debt collapses is hitting the USA. The causes are government officials and corporate executives who borrowed too much easy money plus Wall Street bankers and hedge fund vultures who lent too much easy money.

    Besides city, county and state collapses, there will also be school debt collapses, hospital debt collapses, government authority debt collapses, individual bankruptcies, corporate debt collapses and finally the nationwide debt collapse of the USA. If change cannot be brought about fast – like increasing revenue (e.g. raising taxes on the rich) or cutting spending (e.g. ending endless war, cutting military/intel spending) or both – then, the best way forward may be to evacuate. Get away from the places about to collapse as quickly as you can. If you find your home is burning to the ground, as I discovered one Sunday evening in New York City in the Summer of 2011, what are you going to do? Evacuate.

    read more.


September 29, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Nomi Prins: Federal Reserve Transition to Destruction

  • Fed Scared to Raise Rates-Nomi Prins
    by Greg Hunter’s (Early Sunday Release)
    Former top Wall Street banker Nomi Prins says forget about a Fed Rate Hike in December. It’s not going to happen. Prins explains, “They are not going to raise rates in December. I didn’t think they were going to raise rates in September. . . . It wouldn’t have made sense for that to happen, and it’s not going to make more sense for the same reasons for December. In the next three months, economies thought the world will not be repaired, markets will not be stable, currencies will not be stable, and all of a sudden, interest rates will not have the need to rise to hurt other countries who are reducing their rates. So, the Fed is not going to move in December. . . . The factors around the policies, around economy, around the markets, don’t lend themselves to doing that. So, she (Janet Yellen) is in a catch 22 of her making and of the Federal Reserve’s making. The choice was made to bail out the financial institutions and prop up the markets with artificial money, and printing money, and reducing the level of interest rates, and reducing the level of currencies relative to the dollar throughout the world. That was the decision that was made. . . . The talk is ‘we will see what the economy does. We’ll see if unemployment is better. We’ll see if inflation is still low, and then maybe we will think about it.’ That is all code for we are not going to think about it because we arescared to move and cause a worse situation than the one we already created. ”

    Prins goes on to point out, “Now, you have this heightened volatility. Now, you have this heightened negativity. There is only so much of an amount you can inflate asset bubbles before they destruct, and that’s what we are seeing now in the rising volatility in the last six months, this transition to destruction.”

    read more.


September 28, 2015 Posted by | Economics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts: Washington Represents the Most Concentrated form of Evil in Human History. The U.S. Faces Catastrophic Financial Risk

  • Dr. Paul Craig Roberts: Washington Represents the Most Concentrated form of Evil in Human History
    by Shadow of Truth,   
    In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists, and will persist.  – President Eisenhower, farewell speech from the White House

    President Eisenhower, in his farewell speech from the White House warned the nation about the U.S. military-industrial complex.  Since that time, the United States Government has become the world’s most dangerous terrorist organization.

    The United States [military policy] has destroyed seven countries.  The populations there are subject to ongoing continual violence either from the U.S. or these Jihadists or from the Islamic State.  In Libya there’s various factions, no Government – just warlords fighting and nobody’s safe anywhere so the populations are getting out.  You can’t live in that type of situation
    . – Dr. Paul Craig Roberts on the Shadow of Truth 

    Lost in the rivers of humanity that have been streaming out of Africa and the Middle East and flooding into Europe is the fact the U.S. military is responsible for this crisis.   Not only has the U.S. destroyed several countries around the globe, the U.S. Government now appears to be provoking Russia into a military conflict in both Ukraine and Syria that risks escalating into a nuclear war.  Even Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski – two notorious warhawks – have both recently stated that the U.S. Government is pushing Russia too hard.

    In fact Dr. Paul Craig Roberts now believes that the only way to avoid eventual nuclear war is a break-up of the EU and NATO.  The EU countries exist politically, economically and strategically as vassal countries of the U.S.  And the United States uses NATO as a “cover” to implement its unilateral implementation of dangerously aggressive military action all over the globe.

    This policy is insane and the people running the policy are insane.  The Shadow of Truth hosted Dr. Paul Craig Roberts in a two-part podcast which covers the current geopolitical risks facing the world as fomented by the U.S. and last week’s FOMC decision to leave zero percent interest rates in place.


September 28, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Dave Kranzler: The Middle Class Is Being Cooked Alive

  • Dave Kranzler: The Middle Class Is Being Cooked Alive

    Published on Sep 26, 2015
    Dave Kranzler from Investment Research Dynamics joins me to discuss his latest thoughts on the physical silver market, and ‘The Road’ of horrors that lay ahead for the American people. Horrors created by international Banksters like the Jacob Rothschild, who in 2007 – just a year before the great economic collapse of 2008 – paid $5 million pounds for a painting called ‘Boy Building a House of Cards’. Are you starting to get the picture?


September 28, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Outright Financial Collapse, Chaos And Most Probably War Is Not Only in Sight, It Is Imminent And Unavoidable Now.


  • Outright Financial Collapse, Chaos And Most Probably War Is Not Only in Sight, It Is Imminent And Unavoidable Now.
    by Bill Holter,  
    The Final Flush Is At Hand! 
    Outright financial collapse, chaos and most probably war is not only in sight, it is imminent and unavoidable now. Normally I try to write and support my conclusions with current or past events via links to news. For this writing, because of the length and scope I don’t plan to do this. It will be assumed that you as the reader have already heard of or read evidence of what is put forth as connectable dots.

    This past week, the following article was forwarded all over the internet: as Deutsche Bank is “all of a sudden news”. Maybe this is a “German thing” with the latest out of Volkswagen? Deutsche Bank is not “all of a sudden”, they have been a derivatives monster for years and were saved in 2008 with part of the $16 trillion the Fed generously sprayed all over the world. The title suggesting DB will be the equivalent of five Lehmans is on the right track but not nearly severe enough. They are tied with JP Morgan as THE largest holder of derivatives in the world. Should Deutsche Bank fail, EVERYTHING FINANCIAL FAILS! It can even be said, “the entire world is Lehman” just waiting for their credit line to be cut 48 hours before complete failure.

    What we are looking at now it “the FINAL FLUSH” of the Western financial system. The Federal Reserve has lost all credibility. This has followed both the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank being seen as hopelessly neutered of the ability to support the system. Confidence was THE very last “hope” and the Fed gave even that away last week. Of course the mainstream media chimed in on Friday saying the “market was up in the hopes of a rate hike in December”. Really? Are we to believe a tightening of credit is a good thing for a system buried in leverage and being dogged with liquidity drying up? This is like saying a flame thrower is the best tool for the California fires?

    Money Velocity has crashed and so has global trade. Leveraged commodity trades have blown up and left many sectors dysfunctional. Has anyone stopped to think who (other than the sectors themselves) stands to lose with $45 oil? Maybe the lenders? Would this not tighten credit even further? Why do a dozen “advanced” economies already have stock markets in bear (minus 20%+) market territory?

    Geopolitically we have watched as West has lined up against East militarily in many spots all over the world. The short list includes the South China Sea, Ukraine, Yemen and of course Syria. Russia began the build up militarily several weeks back along the Ukraine border and more recently inside Syria. Now China is reportedly sending hardware to Syria including ships. These are not bluffs as active fighting already exists. Can the U.S. actually “win” in any of these arenas in conventional war? It’s OK, you know the answer in your own mind, you also know what the alternative to losing conventionally is.

    read more.



September 28, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

From ZIRP To NIRP – Accelerating The End Of Fiat Currencies

Zimbabwe Hyperinflation!

Zimbabwe Hyperinflation!

  • From ZIRP To NIRP – Accelerating The End Of Fiat Currencies
    Submitted by Alasdair Macleod via, via
    The sudden end of the Fed’s ambition to raise interest rates above the zero bound, coupled with the FOMC’s minutes, which expressed concerns about emerging market economies, has got financial scribblers writing about negative interest rate policies (NIRP).

    Coincidentally, Andrew Haldane, the chief economist at the Bank of England, published a much commented-on speech giving us a window into the minds of central bankers, with zero interest rate policies (ZIRP) having failed in their objectives.

    Of course, Haldane does not openly admit to ZIRP failing, but the fact that we are where we are is hardly an advertisement for successful monetary policies.
    The bare statistical recovery in the UK, Germany and possibly the US is slender evidence of some result, but whether or not that is solely due to interest rate policies cannot be convincingly proved. And now, exogenous factors, such as China’s deflating credit bubble and its knock-on effect on other emerging market economies, are being blamed for the deteriorating economic outlook faced by the welfare states, and the possible contribution of monetary policy to this failure is never discussed.

    Anyway, the relative stability in the welfare economies appears to be coming to an end.
    Worryingly for central bankers, with interest rates at the zero bound, their conventional interest rate weapon is out of ammunition. They appear to now believe in only two broad options if a slump is to be avoided: more quantitative easing and NIRP. There is however a market problem with QE, not mentioned by Haldane, in that it is counterpart to a withdrawal of high quality financial collateral, which raises liquidity issues in the shadow banking system. This leaves NIRP, which central bankers hope will succeed where ZIRP failed. 

    Here is a brief summary of why, based on pure economic theory, NIRP is a preposterous concept.
    It contravenes the laws of time preference, commanding by diktat that cash is worth less than credit. It forces people into the practical discomfort of treating physical possession of money as worth less than not possessing it. Suddenly, we find ourselves riding the train of macroeconomic fallacies at high speed into the buffers at the end of the line. Of course, some central bankers may sense this, but they are still being compelled towards NIRP through lack of other options, in which case holding cash will have to be banned or taxed by one means or another. This would, Haldane argues, allow them to force interest rates well below the zero bound and presumably keep them there if necessary.

    read more.
We will all be trillionaires but can't afford breakfast !

We will all be trillionaires but can’t afford breakfast !



September 26, 2015 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

James Turk: Next Collapse Won’t Be a Market Collapse, It Will Be a Dollar Collapse & Hyperinflation!

Click on image to play the MP3 interview.

Click on image to play the MP3 interview.

  • James Turk: Next Collapse Won’t Be a Market Collapse, It Will Be a Dollar Collapse & Hyperinflation!
    With gold and silver rallying and physical shortages worsening, expert James Turk joins the show this week, discussing: 

    * SOLD OUT: World’s Largest Physical Silver Wholesaler’s Inventory Down to 3 Items- All Shipping in 6-10 Weeks!
    * Wholesale Silver Eagle Premiums Skyrocket to $5/oz- Premiums Likely to Reach 50% Within Next Few Weeks
    * Supply Side Implosion: Australian & Canadian Silver Production Down a Stunning 28% (11 M oz) Jan-June 2015 vs 2014!
    * James Turk: We’re Scraping the Bottom of the Barrel at These Prices
    * You May Not Get a Liquidity Event With Next Lehman Style Crisis: May Wake Up With Silver $5 Higher Overnight!
    * After 4 Year Correction, Turks Explains Why a Meaningful Rally For Gold is Overdue
    * Turk Warns: Next Collapse Won’t Be a Market Collapse, It Will Be a Dollar Collapse & Hyperinflation!


September 26, 2015 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Putin Pushes For Peace In Syria At The Same Time Obama Pushes For War

  • Published on Sep 25, 2015
    DHS working a self destruct smart phone. Warning in Malaysia, US and Australia citizens should be on alert for terrorist attacks. US is going to leave and add troops in Afghanistan. US preparing for war with Russia in the Baltic’s. Putin has complete knowledge that the U.S. uses the IS as their proxy army and is now pushing to take Assad out. Russia submits UN draft resolution to make ISIS and international terrorist threat, US will not sign on to this.


September 26, 2015 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Andrew Hoffman: The Last Breaths of the Financial System

Click on image to download MP3 interview.

Click on image to download MP3 interview.


September 26, 2015 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

War on Cash, Bank of England Planning Hyper QE, Scrapping Cash for Digital Currency

Click on image for article.

Click on image for article.

Click on image for article.


September 25, 2015 Posted by | Economics, EndTimes, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The End Game Has Begun


  • The End Game Has Begun
    by Tyler Durden,  
    For six years, the world has operated based on faith and hope that Central Banks somehow fixed the issues that caused the 2008 Crisis. All of the arguments supporting this defied common sense. A 5th grader knows that you cannot solve a debt problem by issuing more debt. If the below chart was a problem BEFORE 2008… there is no way that things are better now. After all, we’ve just added another $10 trillion in debt to the US system. 

    Similarly, anyone with a functioning brain could tell you that a bunch of academics with no real-world experience, none of whom have ever started a business or created a single job can’t “save” the economy. Indeed, few if any of the Fed Presidents have even run a bank before. And yet they’re in charge of the banking system.

    However, there is an AWFUL lot of money at stake in maintaining the illusion of Central Banking omniscience. So the media and the banks and the politicians were happy to promote them. Indeed, one could very easily argue that nearly all of the wealth and power held by those at the top of the economy stem from this fiction.

    So it’s little surprise that no one would admit the facts: that the Fed and other Central Banks not only don’t have a clue how to fix the problem, but that they actually have almost no incentive to do so. So here are the facts:

    1)   The REAL problem for the financial system is the bond bubble. In 2008 when the crisis hit it was $80 trillion. It has since grown to over $100 trillion.

    The derivatives market that uses this bond bubble as collateral is over $555 trillion in size.

    Many of the large multinational corporations, sovereign governments, and even municipalities have used derivatives to fake earnings and hide debt. NO ONE knows to what degree this has been the case, but given that 20% of corporate CFOs have admitted to faking earnings in the past, it’s likely a significant amount.

    4)  Corporations today are more leveraged than they were in 2007. As Stanley Druckenmiller noted recently, in 2007 corporate bonds were $3.5 trillion… today they are $7 trillion: an amount equal to nearly 50% of US GDP.

    5)  The Central Banks are now all leveraged at levels greater than or equal to where Lehman Brothers was when it imploded. The Fed is leveraged at 78 to 1. The ECB is leveraged at over 26 to 1. Lehman Brothers was leveraged at 30 to 1.

    6)   The Central Banks have no idea how to exit their strategies. Fed minutes released from 2009 show Janet Yellen was worried about how to exit when the Fed’s balance sheet was $1.3 trillion (back in 2009). Today it’s over $4.5 trillion.

    We are heading for a crisis that will be exponentially worse than 2008. The global Central Banks have literally bet the financial system that their theories will work.  They haven’t. All they’ve done is set the stage for an even worse crisis in which entire countries will go bankrupt.

    read more.


September 25, 2015 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment


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