Socio-Economics History Blog

Socio-Economics & History Commentary

German Institution Predicts Possible Italy Exit of Eurozone

  • Published on Jan 2, 2017
    A German research institution says Italians will seek to quit the euro currency if their standard of living does not improve. Ifo chief Clemens Fuest says the standard of living in Italy has remained the same since 2000 and if the situation is not changed, Italians will choose to leave the eurozone. Italy is eurozone’s third-largest economy, but its stock market has been the worst performer in Europe last year. Italy is hit with financial problems in its banking system. The country has recently approved a bailout plan to help the struggling banks.

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January 3, 2017 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Yuan Dumps, Bitcoin Jumps As China Researchers Suggest “One-Off Devaluation” & Capital Controls

bitcoin-usdcny-20170101

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January 3, 2017 Posted by | Economics | , , | Leave a comment

2017 Predictions on Trump, Gold, Silver, Housing, Stocks, Bonds & Antarctica: Clif High

  • 2017 Predictions on Trump, Gold, Silver, Housing, Stocks, Bonds & Antarctica: Clif High 
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday Release)
    Internet data mining expert Clif High says forget about the rumors and predictions of Donald Trump being blocked from taking office. High says Trump will be sworn in as the 45th President and explains, “I don’t have any data that says, hard stop, Trump is assassinated.  I don’t have that . . . . I am willing to back my data with real money, an ounce of silver, and I have an ounce of silver, and I would be willing to bet the inauguration part goes through smoothly given the emotional data sets we have now.”

    High, who calls what he does “Predictive Linguistics,” mines the internet and collects billions of data points to produce forecasts of the future.  On the financial markets, High simply says, “We’re screwed. . . . The equity markets in our data sets are highly manipulated.  So, if you ask will there be a crash?  I say there already is a crash.  Everybody that is not part of the financial system at the top end is currently living in a depression, and the media does not acknowledge this.”

    On the U.S. dollar and its purchasing power, High predicts, “The purchasing power is going to be eroded away fairly quickly. I suspect the erosion (of the U.S. dollar) is going to start in March or so. . . . The turning point for the Trump euphoria will hit at the end of February and carry on through March and April.  There will probably be people that will define this as a crash. . . . In our data sets, around March and April, the erosion of the dollar continues . . . The Fed, in a laggardly way, starts to chase interest rates. . . . We may jump to 9% or 10% interest rates as quickly as March or April.”

    On Real Estate prices, High’s data tells him the entire market will eventually “fall by 90%.” High explains, “The language is about the high end crashing first, and then, it meets the middle tier, and then they crash to meet the lower tier.  So, it’s not going to be the high end coming down and then stabilizing.  We are seeing a generalized property price crash that is really just going to coincide with the inability of the banks to circulate enough money and create enough debt to blow the balloon up again.  Real estate will drop for what I am calling a credit freeze for lack of a better word.”

    On Gold and Silver and Bitcoin, High says they will start moving up at the beginning of the New Year, and Obama will see the beginnings of a market crash before he leaves office. High contends, “Our data sets show that there is a lot of upward pressure on Gold and Silver and Bitcoin as the currencies go into a crisis mode. That basically is already happening.”

    High’s data is pointing to Silver and Gold prices starting to takeoff in early 2017. High says data is showing a possible “$600 per ounce price for Silver” at some point.  High says before that happens, he sees “$125 per ounce” price for Silver on up to “$345 per ounce.”  High’s data also repeatedly says the “gold price per ounce will eventually be equal to the Dow.”

    read more.

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January 2, 2017 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Jim Willie: For Auld Lang Jackass

Click on image to download MP3 interview.

Click on image to download MP3 interview.

  • Jim Willie: For Auld Lang Jackass
    by Turd Ferguson, http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/
    One year ends and a new one begins. That means it’s time to take stock of where we’ve been and where we’re going and few are better at pointing the way than The Golden Jackass. For this call, I asked Jim to primarily focus his comments on three, specific areas of interest for 2017:

    1. The global bond market, QE and interest rates
    2. The Italian and Eurozone banking sector
    3. The Trump Administration versus The Established Elites

    As usual, I think you’ll find this entertaining and very informative. Enjoy the show and be sure to have a safe and relaxing New Year’s weekend.

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January 2, 2017 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

With China Facing Currency, Liquidity Crises, Ex-PBOC Official Urges Use Of “Nuclear Option”

china_fx_pressure_in_jan2017

  • With China Facing Currency, Liquidity Crises, Ex-PBOC Official Urges Use Of “Nuclear Option” 
    by Tyler Durden, http://www.zerohedge.com
    With the PBOC fighting tooth and nail to slow outbound capital flight, which according to Goldman has reached $1.1 trillion since August 2015, and which these days mostly means keeping the Yuan from depreciating to new all time lows below 7 Yuan to the Dollar, the Chinese central bank may have its work cut out for it in the immediate future. The reason is that, as Bloomberg reminds us, the first day of 2017 is when an annual $50,000 quota to convert the yuan into foreign exchange resets, stoking concern there will be a rush to sell the local currency.

    With tax payments and a regulatory assessment also tightening liquidity in the money market toward year-end, manifesting itself in soaring unsecured funding rates such as the overnight repo hitting 33% as noted yesterday, paralyzing both the overnight…
    ….
    Ultimately, trying to keep a lid on the Yuan is a game China will lose, and some are already preemptively admitting defeat. Among them is Yu Yongding, a former academic member of the PBOC’s monetary policy committee, who overnight urged his former PBOC colleagues to engage the “nuclear option” – a sharp, one off devaluation similar to what China did in August of 2015. 

    In emailed comments to Bloomberg, Yongding said that China has a window from now to President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration to halt FX intervention and let yuan depreciate to its equilibrium level.

    Will the PBOC stun everyone and unveil a surprise devaluation in the next three weeks? We don’t know, but according to bitcoin, which has soared by 20% in just the past week, someone does appear to “know” something, and if they are right, a devaluation is precisely what the Chinese central bank has in store.

    read more.

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December 29, 2016 Posted by | Economics | , , , | Leave a comment

Warren Pollock: Clinton & Trump Will Fight to the Death. Trump Inherits Political and Economic Titanic

  • Warren Pollock: Clinton & Trump Will Fight to the Death. Trump Inherits Political and Economic Titanic 
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 
    Analyst and financial expert Warren Pollock says Donald Trump has been dealt a horrendous hand when it comes to the political environment and the economy. Pollock explains, “Trump inherited the Titanic or a nuclear reactor that is about to explode.  As he tries to fix this giant mess, he’s bound to upset the apple cart.  The economy is fragile.  The society is fragile.  If he touches anything, something is liable to break somewhere.  People want Obama Care removed immediately.  They want to see the swamp drained immediately.  I think these are things he believes in, and he is certainly a pragmatic manager compared to Hillary Clinton, who would have been an utter disaster for everyone in this country. . . . The problem for Trump, besides the piranhas that are circling him, both the Democrats and Republicans, is that he has inherited the Titanic, which means he can cause us to sink faster simply by touching something.  That’s why Obama Care can’t be turned off overnight.  That’s why he can’t impose massive tariffs on China overnight.  Whatever he does will cause tremendous dislocations.  Any corrective action that he takes will have unintended consequences, and he understands that.  He’s a pragmatist, and I think he is prepared to deal with this.  All the people he has chosen, all have differing opinions, but they are all excellent in one way or another.”


    On the absence of real news reporting and real data, Pollock says, “If there is no news available, then they will just make stuff up. That’s the way our economy functions.  That’s the way the stock market functions.  That’s the way the bond market functions.  They were stealing from people for the last eight years with zero interest rates.  There is no capital formation.  Companies that do IPO’s (Initial Public Offerings), they are not giving you something to invest in, they are giving you their exit strategy.   So, everything is fake, and it gets very hard for an executive to make decisions based on fake information.  When some people take over a company, they are turnaround specialists.  That’s really what Trump has to be.”

    read more.

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December 29, 2016 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Establishment Is Setting Up The Economy To Come Crashing Down On Trump: Louis Cammarosano

December 29, 2016 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

It’s The Dollar, Stupid!

The_Death_of_King_Dollar

  • It’s The Dollar, Stupid!  
    by Paul Brodsky via Macro-Allocation.com, http://www.zerohedge.com/
    We think the markets have it fundamentally wrong. US investors are anticipating a cyclical shift towards economic expansion via new tax incentives, business de-regulation and Keynesian government spending that promise to increase output, demand and asset prices. However, there is a far more influential driver of future asset prices – a structural shift that has begun but has yet to be acknowledged by economic and political authorities, and, judging by financial asset markets, by most investors. We expect weak equity markets and a strong treasury market beginning in 2017.


    It’s the Dollar, Stupid.
    The financial model used by advanced economies since 1971 is quickly losing its ability to support economic growth and rising asset prices.1 Western economic policy, which had previously relied heavily on credit creation from 1971 to 2008, was replaced in 2009 by monetary policy that relied heavily on base money creation through asset purchases. The structural shift in central bank focus from credit to monetary creation marked a paradigm shift in the decades-long finance-based economic model – from the leveraging phase to the de-leveraging phase.

    We expect debt deflation coincident with central bank monetary inflation, which would offset the deflation…on paper (like feet in the oven, head in the freezer producing a reasonable average). Before this occurs, we expect a financial or economic event that focuses public attention on the leverage problem.

    We expect global monetary authorities to protect the dollar as long as they can and we expect them to fail. Stocks and bonds will react violently; stocks and weak credits falling, treasuries prices rising (at first). That failure will lead to hyperinflation – not driven by demand, but rather by central bank money printing. A new global monetary understanding will then emerge.

    We expect weak equities and a strong treasury market in 2017, as they begin to discount this fundamental structural shift.

    read more.

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December 29, 2016 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

India’s Prime Minister Has Singlehandedly Crushed the Economy with His Reckless Cash Ban

New Delhi : People standing in long queues to exchange their old Rs 500 and 1000 notes and withdraw cash from the ATM in New Delhi om Thursday.PTI Photo by Subhav Shukla(PTI11_17_2016_000041B)

New Delhi : People standing in long queues to exchange their old Rs 500 and 1000 notes and withdraw cash from the ATM in New Delhi om Thursday. PTI Photo by Subhav Shukla

india_cash_currency_ban

  • Why all the urgent, rash, thoughtless, desperate … actions to ban cash in India? I don’t think Modi is a dumb idiot not realizing the consequences of his actions. He is under orders from the Illuminati to push forward with this reckless cash ban. The Synagogue of Satan is running out of time to prepare the way for the coming of the Anti-Christ. Banning of cash, going totally into electronic transactions is a pre-requisite for microchipping the sheeple with RFID ‘666’.
  • India’s Prime Minister Has Singlehandedly Crushed the Economy with His Reckless Cash Ban 
    by Michael Krieger, https://libertyblitzkrieg.com/
    Today’s piece should be seen as a bit of a followup to yesterday’s post, India’s Demonetization Debacle Highlights the Dangers of Monetary Monopoly. While yesterday’s piece was more philosophical/strategic in nature, today’s zeroes in on some of the devastating real world impacts of Narendra Modi’s insane and inhumane cash ban. It’s hard to overstate the damage this policy has done to India’s economy. Modi is quickly solidifying his place as one of monetary history’s biggest idiots.

    First, let’s take a look at the destructive impact the move has had on India’s massive small businesses community. The Washington Post reports:
     Over the past two years, this suburb of New Delhi mushroomed into a flourishing enclave of small cellphone manufacturers, attracting tens of thousands of workers from the countryside. Noida, known as the “handset hub,” was touted as a showcase for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s pet “Make in India” initiative.

    Then on Nov. 8, Modi’s government took a step that has jolted the bustling industrial quarter. It scrapped high-denomination currency, with a view, officials said, to curbing illicit wealth and the financing of terrorism. But the cash shortage triggered by the move has also curbed legitimate small enterprises. Many of Noida’s manufacturing units have slashed production by nearly half, and more than a quarter of the workers have gone back to their villages.

    read more.
http://english.pravda.ru/news/business/19-05-2015/130638-cash-0/

Click on image for article.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/30862

Click on image for article.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-02/inside-the-secret-meeting-where-wall-street-tested-digital-cash

Click on image for article.

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December 28, 2016 Posted by | Economics, EndTimes, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

EURO ON THE BRINK: Investors Predict Currency COLLAPSE as Italy ‘Worry Child Number One’

italy-ecb-euro-collapse

  • EURO ON THE BRINK: Investors Predict Currency COLLAPSE as Italy ‘Worry Child Number One’  
    by SIOBHAN MCFADYEN, http://www.express.co.uk/
    ONE in five investors is predicting a Eurozone breakup, a survey has revealed, amid fresh fears Italian banks could be first to be allowed to go bust.

    According to the latest Sentix Euro Break-up Index data captured just before Christmas, 21.8 per cent of 933 investors questioned believe Italy could end up leaving the Eurozone as its banks struggle with a liquidity crisis. Sentix CEO Manfred Hübner said: “Italy remains the euro-worry child number one, even before Greece.”

    Last week new Italian Prime Minister New Paolo Gentiloni approved £17bn in public funds to help stabilise his country’s most fragile financial institutions. The crisis began to show cracks of earthquake proportions when the European Central Bank announced the results of the 2016 bank stress tests on July 29.

    They identified Italian banks as being £307bn in the red thanks to bad loans which make up 18 per cent of total bank balance sheets. Also causing concern is their chronically poor profitability, record-low interest rates, thin capital buffers and high costs. Since July the ECB has repeatedly dragged its heels in offering a bail out.

    read more.

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December 28, 2016 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Chinese Interbank Funding Freezes Again As Overnight Repo Hits 33%

china_overnight_repo-20161227

  • Chinese Interbank Funding Freezes Again As Overnight Repo Hits 33% 
    by Tyler Durden, http://www.zerohedge.com 
    While we have previously shown the amazing gimmicks the Chinese central bank does with the short end of the offshore Yuan interbank offered rate, which as previously explained, and as shown in the animation below, has become the PBOC’s favorite means of punishing currency speculators by making Yuan borrowing costs against shorts crushingly high, forcing short unwinds…

    … when it comes to more traditional unsecured short-term funding markets, like the simple overnight repo, these reflect overall levels of liquidity in the interbank market, or as the case may be, complete absence thereof.

    read more.

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December 28, 2016 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , | Leave a comment

Jim Willie on The American Freedom Radio – The Ochelli Effect

December 27, 2016 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bundesbank Repatriates Gold At A Much Faster Pace To Prepare For The Economic Crisis

  • Published on Dec 26, 2016
    Goldman Sachs was caught manipulating the US Dollar and order to pay a small fine. The Bank Of Japan was the top purchaser for ETF, BOJ will completely own the market. Germany’s Bundesbank accelerated its gold repatriating before the economic crisis hits.

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December 27, 2016 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Jim Willie: 2017 Economic Outlook

http://www.amazon.com/The-Manufacturing-President-Insertion-Barack/dp/1478260645

Click on image to goto Amazon.

  • Published on Dec 26, 2016
    WWW.TRUNEWS.COM

    12/26/16: Jim Willie, 2017 Economic Outlook
    Will the legacy of Barack Hussein Obama be a world left in chaos? Today on TRUNEWS, Pastor Rick Wiles interviews economist Jim Willie regarding what his sources have shared about the economic outlook of 2017. Pastor Rick will also hear Jim Willie’s opinions on the real background of the Obama family, the derivatives disaster unfolding on Western banks, and the developments toward a global cashless society. Source:

    https://www.spreaker.com/user/trunews…
http://www.infowars.com/bombshell-barack-obama-conclusively-outed-as-cia-creation/

Click on image for article.

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December 27, 2016 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Dr. Jim Willie: The U.S. Dollar And The Loss of Global Reserve Status

  • Dr. Jim Willie: The U.S. Dollar And The Loss of Global Reserve Status 
    by https://thelastgreatstand.com/ 
    In the video above, you’ll find the continuation of my interview with Dr. Willie from the post titled, U.S. Dollar’s Status as the Global Reserve Continues To Lose Credibility. In the first half of the interview, you heard Dr. Willie voicing his own frustrations with how hard it is to convince people he cares about that dire economic times are on the horizon, especially when on the surface market conditions are giving off the appearance that everything is great, largely because new all-time highs continue to be reached almost weekly! 

    In the article that accompanied the first half of the interview with Dr. Willie, it referred to“Trumphoria,” a phenomena describing people who were once preparing for the impending global collapse, but have somehow been duped into believing that a Trump presidency can turn around decades of poor monetary policy. Those people are sorely mistaken! That’s not a knock on Trump’s ability either. The simple fact is that our nation has accumulated the largest mountain of debt the world has ever seen, and as Dr. Willie explains, our status as the World Reserve Currency is almost at an end. 

    read more.

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December 26, 2016 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment