Socio-Economics History Blog

Socio-Economics & History Commentary

Wall Street Casino; Do You Feel Lucky? Financial Derivatives BOMB

  • ITM Trading Streamed live 10 hours ago
    Link to slides and supporting sources:…

    When derivative bets on mortgages failed in 2007 and 2008, we all learned who was “Too Big to Fail” as Banks were bailed out on the backs of the taxpaying public. We’re told that the banks and financial system is so much safer and more resilient and that the problems that created “The Great Recession” have been fixed. Is that true? We know that the TBTF banks are now a lot bigger, but is the system really safer? Why Does This Matter to Me? Because the global reflation trade created by the central banker’s old tools (interest rates and debt) appear to be used up and the size of the derivative market has exploded making the entire global financial system one big casino with bankers making these bets, which are secured by YOUR wealth. When it gets too expensive to keep things floating, credit will dry up. That’s what happened with the derivative market in 2008. So I ask you, do you feel lucky? I do, because I have physical gold and silver in my possession and that’s a sure bet.

Paul Wilmott, who holds a doctorate in applied mathematics from Oxford University, has warned that the so-called notional value of the worldwide derivatives market is over $1.4 quadrillion (Quadrillion = 1000 Trillion).


February 24, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Debt Default is Inevitable | Michael Pento

  • SilverDoctors Published on Feb 23, 2018
    “Debt levels have reached a point where they have to be defaulted upon,” Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies tells Silver Doctors. The rate of the 10-year Treasury is at a four year high nearing three percent. Pento forecasts it will rise to four percent, which will be a “floor rather than a ceiling.” If the rate rises to four percent, people will have lost about 25 percent from a “risk free” asset since July 2016. The top is in for the stock market, Pento says. As rates continue to rise, look out for a bankruptcies, layoffs, and a stock crash.


February 24, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

US Dollar Domino Collapse: New Evidence | Rob Kirby

  • Reluctant Preppers Published on Feb 23, 2018
    Widely followed proprietary analyst Rob Kirby sounds the alarm that the facts can no longer be denied that MAJOR FINANCIAL PLAYERS ARE ABANDONING THE US DOLLAR. Kirby names specific examples to prove that the drumbeat of new hard evidence is accelerating, as we are rapidly approaching the point of no return. Kirby further blazes through hot topics ranging from the real root causes behind mass tragedies, to insanity preventing North American oil independence, and whether gold/silver/cryptos are the key to bring a peaceful end to the non-stop wars that have been forced upon us!


February 24, 2018 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Distraction Of All Distractions Might Be On It’s Way: V & CJ

February 24, 2018 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Transition To The New System Has Already Begun, People Don’t Know It Yet

  • X22Report Published on Feb 22, 2018
    The entire economic system is based on an illusion and just like in 2008 many people are going to watch their pensions drop to zero. The pensions are all in on stocks, the American people have been scammed to believe that their pension would be waiting for them when they retire. The transition has already begun and many don’t even realize that it is happening.


February 24, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

China Just BAILED OUT One of the BIGGEST Companies In China! Then Literally Turned Off It’s VIX!

February 23, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , | Leave a comment

Central Banks Have Been Calling for a Financial System Reset Since 2013. They’ve Been Using This Time to Accumulate Gold

  • ITM Trading Streamed live on Feb 21, 2018
    Link to slides and supporting sources:…

    Insiders have been busy leading up to February. In fact, Goldman Sachs reports that, during the recent stock rout, they had their busiest week ever as buybacks surged 4.5 times last years average corporate buying. Snap has made Even Spiegel a very wealthy man and apparently, a very lucky one too. On February 3rd some huge buyer made Snap stock gap up from $13ish to $21ish. Perhaps they know something we don’t. Oh Snap! It’s All About Confidence And for the Fed’s next magic trick…Interbank Lending is discontinued. Banks lending to each other provided liquidity during past crisis. But that support dried up during the 2008 crisis leaving central banks, as the lender of last resort.

    And while we’re told everything is fine, this graph shows the loss of confidence banks have in each other’s solvency (ability to repay a loan). Real Money Gold Central banks have been calling for a financial system reset since, at least, 2013. They know the old system has been on life support since 2008. They’ve been using this time to accumulate gold. Wouldn’t it make sense to follow their lead?


February 23, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

GOLD & SILVER Supply Dry Up, Prices and Timing. Q&A with Eric Griffin and Lynette Zang

  • ITM Trading Streamed live on Feb 20, 2018
    Video & Link to Questions:…
    Viewer Submitted Questions:
    Question 1. BlueMariner777
    How can they falsely push down the spot gold market when folks are buying real gold based on those prices. Aren’t they doing something illegal to falsely push the market down?
    Question 2. Wayne C
    if physical gold/silver prices are tied to the spot price by the metals brokers, should I wait until after the crash to buy physical gold/silver at the lower prices?
    Question 3. Michael B
    How is the total asset value of the Global Bond counted? Is it counted based on the current market value or is it valued on the maturity value of all the bonds?
    Question 4. Kevin K
    I notice that the Fed is no longer publishing the Interbank loan information. Update?
    Question 5. Laura K
    January 2018 the banks stopped lending to one another. The same thing happened in 2008. What month in 2008? I’m interested to know how much time it was from the time they stopped lending, till the collapse. It might give us an idea of when the next one will happen.
    Question 6. Mark H
    can you include in a q&a session something about the paper to gold/silver ratio just added to the us debt clock web page bottom left if you go and look very interesting.
    Question 7. Anthony G
    when it comes time to pay the debt, what the hell are we going to use to pay other than our land, resources, blood? Is this part of the Act of 1871 when the US went bankrupt and became a corporation under admiralty law?
    Question 8. Dave
    How fast would the metal supply dry up in a huge turn up in metal prices?


February 22, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

US Military Establishment Risking WWIII to Maintain Hegemony: Analyst

  • US Military Establishment Risking WWIII to Maintain Hegemony: Analyst
    The United States military establishment is risking the Third World War in order to maintain American hegemony, a political analyst says.

    James Jatras, a former Senate foreign policy adviser in Washington, made the remarks in an interview with Press TV on Tuesday while commenting on a report which says the United States wants Russia to get used to American military presence on its doorsteps in the Black Sea. As part of its plans to counter what it calls “the Russian aggression,” the US has recently deployed two warships to the Black Sea.

    The US Navy announced Saturday that Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Carney had joined USS Ross, another warship of the same family, in the international waters near Russian territories.

    It has now turned out that the decision is part of Washington’s efforts to “desensitize Russia” to the US military presence in the Black Sea, which separates Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Western Asia, CNN reported Monday night, quoting an unnamed US military official.

    read more.


February 22, 2018 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Michael Pento: Rising Rates Forecast Insolvency, Profound Chaos Coming

  • Michael Pento: Rising Rates Forecast Insolvency, Profound Chaos Coming
    by Greg Hunter’s 
    Money manager Michael Pento says recently rising interest rates are signaling big trouble for the economy. Pento contends, “There are so many things that can go wrong with rising interest rates.  First of all, you have to understand that the permabulls that you hear on CNBC will tell you there is nothing wrong with rising interest rates.  It is a symbol of growth.  If you look at industrial production and retail sales for January, they were negative.  So, rising rates are occurring, not because of growth, they are caused by insolvency concerns.  That is the key metric here, and they are credit risks and insolvency concerns.”

    Who is insolvent? Pento says, “Europe is insolvent.  The United States is insolvent. . . . We have $21 trillion in debt.  That’s seven times our revenue.  So, we are technically insolvent.  You haven’t seen anything yet because as interest rates rise, debt service expenses rise. . . . Certainly, beyond a shadow of doubt, the Bank of Japan is insolvent.”

    Pento says 10-year Treasury rates could easily go to “7%,” which is a massive move from a little less than 3% today. This would not be some wild swing, but a “return to long term averages.”  What are central bankers going to do then?  Pento says, “I think the end game is central bankers are going to come back in and buy everything.  They are going to buy every fixed income sovereign debt instrument that they can find because interest rates are going to spiral out of control. . . . You are going to have a panic out of Treasuries, a panic out of high yield, a panic out of leveraged loans and a panic out of bond funds.”

    Pento also predicts, “For the first time in 40 years, you are going to have bond prices and equity prices in free-fall. That happened in the 1970’s, but it’s going to be worse because in the 1970’s, you didn’t have an insolvency concern. . . The chaos coming to markets is here.  It’s not going away, and it’s not going to be brushed under the rug.  It’s not going to stay on the sidelines for another few years.  The years from 2007 to 2017 were the years central banks were buying everything.  There was no volatility, and stocks just went up.  Those days have ended, and the volatility is only going to become much more profound.”


February 22, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Is the Yellowstone Supervolcano Close to Erupting? Scientists Detect More Than 200 Earthquakes in Just 10 DAYS After Warning that Magma Below the Surface is Showing Signs of Strain

According to experts with the US Geological Survey, the latest swarm began on February 8 in a region roughly eight miles northeast of West Yellowstone, Montana – and, it’s increased dramatically in the days since.

  • Is the Yellowstone Supervolcano Close to Erupting? Scientists detect more than 200 earthquakesin just 10 DAYS after warning that Magma Below the Surface is Showing Signs of Strain
    * Latest swarm began Feb 8, about 8mi northeast of West Yellowstone, Montana
    * As of February 18, the scientists say they’ve detected more than 200 quakes
    * Still, experts say the activity is ‘relatively weak,’ and alert level remains normal 

    A new swarm of earthquakes has cropped up at the Yellowstone supervolcano, with more than 200 small temblors detected in the last 10 days alone. According to experts with the US Geological Survey, the latest swarm began on February 8 in a region roughly eight miles northeast of West Yellowstone, Montana – and, it’s increased dramatically in the days since. But for now, scientists say there’s no reason to worry.

    While the earthquakes are likely caused by a combination of processes beneath the surface, the current activity is said to be ‘relatively weak,’ and the alert level at the supervolcano remains at ‘normal.’

    read more.


February 21, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , | Leave a comment

William Engdahl: Why Dollar Hegemony May Be Nearing Its End

  • Jay Taylor Media Published on Feb 14, 2018
    William Engdahl discusses the rising economic status of China, Russia, India and other “rogue” nations and why they are now a threat to the U.S. dollar.


February 21, 2018 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Gerald Celente: Where Are The Markets Heading? Follow Gold

  • The Alex Jones Channel Published on Feb 19, 2018
    Gerald Celente of Trends Research hosts the 4th hour of The Alex Jones Show, advises listeners watch gold prices closely.


February 20, 2018 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Hezbollah Leader Threatens Retaliatory Strikes On Disputed Israeli Offshore Oil & Gas Operations

  • Hezbollah Leader Threatens Retaliatory Strikes On Disputed Israeli Offshore Oil & Gas Operations
    by Tyler Durden,
    During a televised address in Beirut on Friday Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah once again warned Israel to back off its claims over disputed oil and gas field just off the southern Lebanese coast, threatening that Hezbollah could “disable [Israel’s offshore oil installations] within hours.”

    “If you prevent us, we prevent you; if you open fire at us, we will open fire,” 
    Nasrallah threatened.

    The dispute over the eastern Mediterranean gas field goes back to January 2017, but blew up starting in late January of this year as it has been put up for tender by Lebanon and is expected to be developed by an international consortium of energy companies. However, as we reported at the time Israel has aggressively pushed for major sectors of the field to be internationally recognized as lying within its rightful territorial waters, going so far as to warn “respectable” companies from participating in the tender, which would be a “major mistake”.

    Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said in late January, “They [Lebanon] are announcing a tender on the gas field, including Block 9, which is ours by any definition,” and Lebanese actions “very, very challenging and provocative conduct here.”

    read more.

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February 20, 2018 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , | Leave a comment

Doug Casey On Why Gold Could Go “Hyperbolic”

Remember the Golden Rule: “He who has the gold Rules!”

  • Doug Casey On Why Gold Could Go “Hyperbolic”
    …. Doug: Keeping dollars in banks is very dangerous. The whole world is like Cyprus a few years ago. You don’t actually own anything in a bank or broker anymore—your assets are the unsecured liability of an institution that’s likely bankrupt. This is especially true if you have more than $250,000 in any given account, which the FDIC insures. But it’s bankrupt too, with assets that cover like a half percent of their liabilities.

    The problem is systemic risk, and it’s worldwide. It’s like Joe Louis said: you can run but you can’t hide. The only place you can hide today is gold and silver. That, and cheap real estate, if you can find it.

    Yeah, gold is doing quite well. Its price is up 12% since July.

    What do you attribute this to? Is it because investors are taking shelter? Is it due to the weak dollar? Or is it simply because we’re in the early innings of a new commodity bull market?

    Well, I think all the indications are aligning at this point. It’s been a rough bear market. As a group, commodities are 50% below their 2011 highs. It’s been a deep bear market as well as a long bear market. As a result, commodities have never been cheaper relative to financial assets like stocks and bonds.

    It’s a great time to be in commodities. And gold is the foremost commodity. It’s historically been used as money. And it will continue to be used as money because none of these governments should, or do, trust each other. Or each other’s phony paper fiat currencies.

    There could be a buying panic in gold and it could go much higher. We’re in a new bull market for gold at this point, but nobody cares. Or even knows that’s true. The same is true for silver. Although, silver is primarily an industrial commodity. It’s the poor man’s gold for many reasons.

    Justin: How much higher could gold head?
    Doug: Well, these things usually move in a hyperbolic curve. They start out slowly. Then, they accelerate. Same type of thing we saw with cryptocurrencies.

    I think gold will do the same, although not to the same extent. My prediction by the end of this year is that gold will hit $2,000. In 2019, $3,000. In 2020, $4,000. By the time this bull market peaks, gold could reach $10,000. But I hate to say things like that…because it sounds so outrageous.

    But look at the number of dollars in existence ($3.635 trillion in the M-1 money). Divide that by the 260 million ounces of gold the U.S. Government is supposed to own, and you get a gold price of $13,982/ounce.

    Look at the number of dollars that are outside the U.S.—$10 trillion, $20 trillion, who knows?—and that liability is growing by $50 billion annually with the balance of trade deficit.

    At $1,300 per ounce, the U.S. gold holdings can’t even cover a year’s deficit. And consider the fact that at some point those dollars will need to be redeemed by something if they’re going to retain any value.

    The price of gold—if gold is going to be fixed to the dollar again, at least for the purpose of trading with foreigners, with foreign governments—is going to have to be much higher than it is today. Of course, I don’t think the dollar should exist, nor should the U.S. government even be in the money business; it just confuses the issue.

    Money is a medium of exchange and a store of value—it shouldn’t also be a political football, and a means for the State to finance itself. Gold itself should be used as money. Remember that the dollar—like the franc, the pound, the mark, and what-have-you—were just names for a specific quantity of gold.

    So a six-to-one shot from here is not at all unreasonable over the next several years. And that would mean very good things for gold stocks.

    read more.


February 19, 2018 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment