Socio-Economics History Blog

Socio-Economics & History Commentary

SocGen Sums It Up: “The Time For Patching It Up Is Over”!

  • Let’s hear what the professional really think about the Greek situation and not the propaganda on the MSM !

    SocGen Sums It Up: “The Time For Patching It Up Is Over”! 
    by Tyler Durden, 
    While next to impossible, now may be a good time to ignore the constant barrage of meaningless noise and flashing red headlines, which not only are contradictory but prove that Europe is literally making it all up as it goes along.

    Today is a great case in point of a tangential detour which does nothing to change the reality that Germany no longer wants Greece in the Eurozone (remember, oh, yesterday), and that the ECB is merely playing possum with PSI creditors who will block the deal with even greater vigor than before (anyone recall the FT story about the PSI deal being on the verge of collapse not due to the ECB but due to private creditors?) as the ECB’s even bigger subordination will simply make the amount of hold outs even greater. So while algos take the required 12-48 hours to figure out what just happened today, here is SocGen’s Suki Mann stepping back from the endless daily din, and summarizing what is really happening in Europe. From SocGen:

    The time for patching it up is over; Greece looks as if it can no longer stop the seams from falling apart. Restructuring (an economy) in a low (negative) growth environment simply does not work. The prescribed medicine (austerity) has failed; debt forgiveness (PSI) can’t be agreed; and we are heading for debt default. The iterative process which defines the political response on these occasions has been unsuccessful, but the time for reflection will come later. It’s been a tumultuous two years. The immediate investment case now focuses on contagion and its containment. Now we ask whether we’re really better placed to handle a default – whatever form it takes? Orderly/disorderly, much of the corporate credit universe should come through relatively unscathed, but risk asset pricing will be impacted nonetheless. Technicals of sidelined cash and an opening New Year frenzy have got us here, boosted by ECB manipulation of peripheral risk (sovereign and bank) through the LTRO. However, nearing the end game of the Greek situation now sees us with a different reality. Spreads are moving wider, the periphery is suffering the most, while turnover and secondary market liquidity have fallen off a cliff as evidenced through widening bid-offer spreads. It’s not quite the November phenomenon, because then we had massive selling of French risk in particular, so as long as investors stay with it, the widening should be contained. As ever, we’ll be fighting against the market’s mantra over the past two years, which has been to shoot first and ask questions later.

    And nowhere is this mantra more visible than in today’s… actually make that everyday’s EURUSD, and thus ES (thank you 100% recoupling between Euro and US risk) chart.


February 17, 2012 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on SocGen Sums It Up: “The Time For Patching It Up Is Over”!

Greece is Not Lehman 2.0… As I’ll Show You, It’s Far Far Worse…

The Eurozone sovereign debt time bomb!

  • Will Greece be the trigger which ignites the sovereign debt bomb? Even if it won’t the rest of the PIIGS will detonate this bomb! It will lead to financial collapse on a global scale! Be warned ! Got physical gold yet?

    Greece is Not Lehman 2.0… As I’ll Show You, It’s Far Far Worse…
    Investors simply do not understand the significance of Greece. Comparisons are being made to Lehman, but these comparisons are moot for the following reason: Greece is a country not a private institution.

    This is not a subtle difference. True, Lehman’s derivatives were spread throughout the global financial system just as Greek sovereign debt is. However, investors are missing the true scope of the fall-out a Greek default would create.

    First, let’s think about Lehman. When Lehman went under, half of the other institutions that were in trouble had already been merged with larger entities (Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch) or had been nationalized (Fannie and Freddie). Those that were still standing after Lehman went under, changed to bank holding companies (Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs) in order to receive special access to Fed lending or were nationalized (AIG).

    None of these options exist regarding the sovereign crisis in Europe today. If Greece defaults, Portugal can’t merge with Spain. And Italy can’t be nationalized by Germany or suddenly change itself to a new type of country that gets special treatment from the ECB (it’s already getting special treatment from the ECB by the way).

    This cuts to the core issues for sovereign defaults in the EU. Here are the facts regarding those EU countries on the verge of collapse:

    1) You cannot solve a debt problem with more debt
    2) Austerity measures slow economic growth which in turn makes it harder to meet debt payments

    This is simple basic common sense. But these are the policies being promoted by EU leaders: we’ll give you more money if you implement more austerity measures to get your finances in order.

    The fact of the matter is that there is simply no way on earth that Greece can get its finances in order (short of a massive default). Greece has terrible age demographics, a lack of economic growth, and cultural issues (e.g. paying taxes is for suckers) that make it impossible for the country to solve its financial problems.

    In plain terms, Greece racked up too big of a tab and simply doesn’t have the means of paying it. End of story. The world needs to realize this. Because Greece will default and it will default in a big way,

    The impact of this will be tremendous. For one thing, pretty much everyone is lying about their exposure to Greece. Consider Germany for instance. According to the Bank of International Settlements German bank exposure to Greece is only $3.9 billion (though they state this is only on an immediate borrower basis).

    This is a bit odd as according to The Guardian German banks have nearly 8 billion Euros’ worth of exposure to Greek debt. And they only include 11 German banks in their analysis. However, of those 11 banks, THREE of them have Greek exposure equal to more than 10% of their total outstanding equity.

    But even these numbers are far below the mark. By my own analysis, which I recently shared with subscribers of Private Wealth Advisory one of the “strongest” banks in Germany alone, by its own admission, has twice the exposure to Greece that the Guardian claims. And this is one of the strongest banks in Germany.

    So, when Greece defaults, the fall-out will be much, much larger than people expect simply by virtue of the fact that everyone is lying about their exposure to Greece.

    Secondly, when Greece defaults, the other PIIGS (Italy, Ireland, Spain, and Portugal) will have to ask themselves… “do we opt for austerity measures and more debt which obviously didn’t work for Greece and will only stifle our economies more? Or do we also default?

    … for more click here!


February 17, 2012 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Greece is Not Lehman 2.0… As I’ll Show You, It’s Far Far Worse…

Moody’s Warned It May Cut The Credit Ratings of 17 Global And 114 European Financial Institutions!

  • Who owns these ratings agencies? Illuminists! These are the same agencies which rated fraudulent MBS as ‘AAA’. Practically, all major western banks are bankrupt! The Illuminists are lining up the pieces for a global economic, financial and monetary collapse leading to WW3. The collapse will start in the PIIGS, spread to the rest of Europe, UK, Japan …. and finally America. Do not be taken for a ride. Got physical gold yet?

    Moody’s warned on Thursday it may cut the credit ratings of 17 global and 114 European financial institutions! 
    By Ian Chua and Soyoung Kim
    (Reuters) – Moody’s warned on Thursday it may cut the credit ratings of 17 global and 114 European financial institutions in another sign the impact of the euro zone government debt crisis is spreading throughout the global financial system.

    It was reviewing the long-term ratings and standalone credit assessments of a range of banks, Moody’s added. Markets were unaffected by the Moody’s announcement.

    “Capital markets firms are confronting evolving challenges, such as more fragile funding conditions, wider credit spreads, increased regulatory burdens and more difficult operating conditions,” the ratings agency said in a statement.

    It said among 17 banks and securities firms with global capital markets operations, it might cut the long-term credit rating of UBS, Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley by as much as three notches following the review. It said the guidance was indicative.

    Among the banks that might be downgraded by two notches are Barclays, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Deutsche Bank, HSBC Holdings, and Goldman Sachs. Bank of America and Nomura were included in those that might be downgraded by one notch.

    The U.S. rating agency said in a separate statement its action on 114 financial institutions from 16 European nations reflected the impact of the debt crisis and deteriorating creditworthiness of its governments. It cited more fragile funding conditions, increased regulatory burdens and a tougher economic environment for its review of banks and securities firms with global reach.

    Moody’s salvo follows rounds of downgrades in European sovereign ratings as the euro zone’s struggle to keep its weakest link Greece afloat has been driving up borrowing costs and straining finances of other nations.

    … for more click here!


February 17, 2012 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , | Comments Off on Moody’s Warned It May Cut The Credit Ratings of 17 Global And 114 European Financial Institutions!

Stoking Fear: New York’s Iran Terror!

  • The Zionist-Illuminist owned western MSM is stoking fear and hate against Iran. It is all part of their preparation for a coming major false flag attack to be blamed on Iran. The Illuminists want a World War 3 as cover for the economic mess they have created, as a means of mass culling the sheeple, for the next phase of their world conquest in their effort to establish their Luciferian New World Order. This is a Luciferian World Government centred around a destroyed, re-engineered and enlarged America 2.0 (Mystery Babylon Whore of Rev. 17) and a subservient EU 2.0, Revived Roman Empire (10 Horn Beast).

    Stoking fear: New York’s Iran terror! 
    Big Apple Lawmakers are spreading fear, while the international rhetoric heats up over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and alleged links to attacks on Israeli diplomats. ­New York Senator Chuck Schumer told the US State Department it should increase its scrutiny of Iranian diplomats and claimed some were Iranian govt agents.

    “With Iran’s increasingly bellicose and threatening behavior it’s imperative that agents of the Iranian government in the United States receive additional scrutiny to ensure that they pose no threat to New York or the rest of the country,” Schumer said.

    He pointed to “activities overseas” in which Israeli diplomats were targeted for assassination in Tbilisi, New Delhi and Bangkok, as evidence for the need to closely monitor Iranian “agents” in New York. Iran’s involvement in the incidents has yet to be proven, although Israel immediately concluded that Tehran was behind them.

    Schumer also wrote a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton linking the recent blasts to Iran, maintaining that it was “absolutely unacceptable that Iran’s UN mission is permitted to allow officials from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence to live and operate in New York with official diplomatic cover.

    Schumer’s statement followed a warning by the Israeli National Security Service that Jewish cultural centers and synagogues could become targets of a terror plot supposedly organized by Iran-sponsored Lebanese group Hezbollah.

    On Tuesday Michael Silber, the New York Police Department’s (NYPD) director for intelligence analysis, called Iran a “front-burner issue,” adding: “I hesitate to say it’s No. 1, because we don’t want to ignore the other threats, but right now, it’s essentially No. 1.”

    Silber also published an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal headlined “The Iranian Threat to New York City”. In it, he cites last year’s botched plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the US, as well as two deadly bomb blasts that took place in the 1990s in Argentina as examples of Iranian-directed terrorist activities.

    The NYPD must assume that New York City could be targeted by Iran or Hezbollah.” Silber writes, saying the Big Apple’s large Jewish population could make it an attractive target. He also noted that Iran already has a history of “spying” in New York, recalling a 2004 incident when two security guards attached to Iran’s UN mission were expelled from the country for “conducting surveillance” of the city’s subways and landmarks. The two men had apparently been taking photos and videos of locations deemed “sensitive” by authorities.

    In the meantime, Iran unveiled its first domestically-manufactured nuclear fuel rod in a ceremony attended by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, proving it can create nuclear fuel on its own.

    Israel has reportedly been mulling a preemptive strike against Iran, which it most recently blamed for the bombings in Tbilisi, New Delhi and Bangkok. Iran maintains its innocence and accuses Israel of trying to damage its relations with Thailand.

    The veracity of the claims brought up by the US authorities against Iran remains to be questioned as it is largely based on speculated links between terrorist organizations and Iran. On none of these occasions has Iran’s involvement actually been proven.


February 17, 2012 Posted by | GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Who Carried Out the Terrorist Car Bombings in India, Thailand And Georgia? Iran … Or Someone Else?

  • Be wary of all the western MSM propaganda about Iranian terrorism. It is all about painting Iran falsely as a villain and the US and Zionist ‘666’ Israel as the victims. The organizations/countries which have consistently used false flag terrorism and assassination are Mossad/Israel and CIA/America. The people behind the drive to World War 3 are the western Illuminati. The sheeple do not really understand what is happening. The Illuminists want a catastrophic Greater Middle East war as per Albert Pike’s Satanic WW3 Plan!

    Satanic World War 3 – The Greater Middle East War
    The Third World War must be fomented by taking advantage of the differences caused by the “agentur” of the “Illuminati” between the political Zionists and the leaders of Islamic World. The war must be conducted in such a way that Islam (the Moslem Arabic World) and political Zionism (the State of Israel) mutually destroy each other. ….
  • Who Carried Out the Terrorist Car Bombings in India, Thailand and Georgia? Iran … Or Someone Else? 
    by Washington’s Blog, 
    U.S. and Israel Point Towards Iran … But Did They Do It?
    Car bomb attacks which occurred this week in India, Georgia and Thailand are being blamed on Iran by the U.S., Israel and their allies. If Iran, in fact, carried out the attacks, it will provide a justification for war against Iran. But did Iran actually carry out the attacks?

    Let’s put aside for a moment the fact that the U.S. and Israel support the terrorists which have assassinated several Iranian scientists (and see this). And put aside for a moment the following facts:

    – The CIA admits that it hired Iranians in the 1950′s to pose as Communists and stage bombings in Iran in order to turn the country against its democratically-elected prime minister

    American and Israeli officials admit that they have repeatedly carried out terrorism and then blamed it on Arabs (and see this)

    – Former National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski told the Senate that a terrorist act might be carried out in the U.S. and falsely blamed on Iran to justify war against that nation.

    – Daniel Ellsberg, the famous Pentagon Papers whistleblower, said “if there is another terror attack, “I believe the president will get what he wants”, which includes war with Iran

    Robert David Steele – a 20-year Marine Corps infantry and intelligence officer, the second-ranking civilian in U.S. Marine Corps Intelligence, and former CIA clandestine services case officer – says that elements within the U.S. government are trying to carry out a false flag operation and blame it on Iran 

    – Former high-level CIA officer Michael Scheuer – who was the head of the CIA unit tasked with capturing Bin Laden – says that Israel or Saudi Arabia could be setting up Iran as a way to foment war

    – Scott Ritter, the former UN Weapons Inspector (an American) – who stated before the Iraq war started that there were no weapons of mass destruction – is now saying that he would not rule out staged government terror by the U.S. government to justify war against Iran

    – Ron Paul has warned of a “Gulf of Tonkin type incident” in Iran
    – Pulitzer-prize winning investigative reporter Seymour Hersh says many ideas have been proposed for provoking a war, including building boats that look like Iranian boats, and then putting Navy Seals on them to “start a shoot-up” 

    – The highly influential Brookings Institution wrote a report in 2009 called “Which Path to Persia?” which states (pages 84-85):

    It would be far more preferable if the United States could cite an Iranian provocation as justification for the airstrikes before launching them. Clearly, the more outrageous, the more deadly, and the more unprovoked the Iranian action, the better off the United States would be.Of course, it would be very difficult for the United States to goad Iran into such a provocation without the rest of the world recognizing this game, which would then undermine it. (One method that would have some possibility of success would be to ratchet up covert regime change efforts in the hope that Tehran would retaliate overtly, or even semi-overtly, which could then be portrayed as an unprovoked act of Iranian aggression.)

    – A former member of the British Parliament stated that “there is a very real danger” that the American government will stage a false flag terror attack in order to justify war against Iran 

    A number of very high-level former intelligence officers – including several that personally briefed presidents every day on matters of national security – stated that better communications between the U.S. and Iran were needed to “reduce the danger of … covert, false-flag attack”

    – The U.S. planned regime change in Iran 20 years ago
    – The war against Iran has already begun. See this, this and this 

    Why Would Iran Bomb One of Its Most Important Trade Partners …
    Who Is Helping Iran to Escape from Sanctions By the West? India has become one of Iran’s most important trading partners, and has been increasing its ties to Iran since sanctions have been imposed by the West. Indeed, India has agreed to use creative payment methods for Iranian oil. See this, this, this and this. Why would Iran carry out a terror attack on one of its most important trading partners … one which has agreed to help Iran escape from sanctions?

    … for more click here!


February 17, 2012 Posted by | GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Who Carried Out the Terrorist Car Bombings in India, Thailand And Georgia? Iran … Or Someone Else?