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- Silver is grossly undervalued. If you take into account official inflation figures of the US government, the all time high price of silver should be US$145/oz. If you take the real inflation statistics from www.shadowstats.com, the price is about US$450/oz. The current price of US$27/oz is dirt cheap.
Silver Prices Surging on Near-Record Demand
The price of silver is surging and so is business at many coin dealers across the country. At Plaza Collectibles, an appraisals shop in Manhattan, owner Lee Rosenbloom says he’s seeing a tremendous demand both in new and older silver coins. “This is probably the strongest demand there’s been in the last 25 years,” he says.
Silver prices have soared 60 percent in 2010, driven in large part by a strong investment demand, particularly strong buying of exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, backed by the physical metal.
“ETF demand has been an important driver of prices because investors have prepositioned themselves for this central bank buying by emerging markets” says Francisco Blanch, Head of Global Commodity Research at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch..
Other leading gold analysts agree this buying frenzy will continue. Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of the consulting firm GFMS, says he expects to see $4 billion on a net basis flurrying into silver and gold investment this year. Holdings in the largest silver exchange-traded fund, iShares Silver Trust, are near a record high, trading up 62 percent year to date (as of closing on November 23).
According to Blanch, the increase in silver prices has also been spurred by a rise in industrial demand, which is up 18 percent year over year. A hike in demand for silver from solar panels and pent up demand from the industrial sector is helping to push up prices. He expects to see further growth next year but at a slower pace.
For many investors, silver is a more affordable alternative to gold. Gold coins are traded based on a spot price that is currently almost $1,400 an ounce. Silver coins are based on futures prices that are under $30 an ounce. “Silver coins are a relatively cheap gift and way for people to accumulate wealth,” says Blanch.
The strong interest in silver has created a record month for sales of the 2010 Silver American Eagle bullion coin, according to the U.S. Mint. Silver coin sales are up 22 percent compared to this period last year and 30 percent since 2007.
- The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Trilateral Commission (TC), Bilderberg Group, Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA) …. are all low rung Illuminati political organizations. They report to Committee of 300 … Council of 13 …. Triumvirate of 3 …. Lucifer. It is a Babylonian/Egyptian system where the profane/secular class reports to the priestly class. See also:
From Global Depression to Global Governance!
Stanley Monteith: Secrets of the Illuminati Revealed ! The Hidden Luciferian History of The New World Order!
John Todd(Ex Council of 13): Occult World, Illuminati, CFR, Collins family, Drug Trade, Witchcraft in America, …. Salvation Testimony!
John Todd (1970s): Ex Council of 13 Illuminati Member Reveals How the Illuminists Work. Trilateral Commission, Council on Foreign Relations, Illuminati Corporations, World Government, Attack On Christian Church, Rock Music….
Dr. John Coleman: The Illuminist Committee of 300!
Dr. John Coleman: Illuminist Committee of 300 Staged Atrocities for World Government !
Dr. John Coleman Reveals The Illuminist Committee of 300 Plans for America!
The History of the Illuminati ! The 13 Satanic Bloodlines!
Myron Fagan’s 1960s Lecture Exposing The Illuminati, CFR And The Satanic One World Government Plan!
Conspiritus: The Illuminati Conspiracy!
Svali: The Illuminati Defector Who Turned To Christ !
Bohemian Grove: Illuminati Meet This Week for Satanic Rituals!
Dark Secrets: Inside The Bohemian Grove! Satanism And The Ruling Elite!
- Many are waking up. But not enough. Illuminist banksters are taking over Europe. Their plan calls for the eventual collapse of major currencies including the Euro, USD, Yen, UKP … to usher in their One World Currency, Global Supra-National Central Bank and World Government. It will be a government ruled by Illuminist banksters. A total police state where every citizen is microchipped. All buying and selling will be tracked.
Citizens of Europe Rage Against International Banking Machine!
Austerity measures drive 100,000 protesters to the streets of Ireland, another 100,000 in Italy as Europeans continue to rage against the international banking machine.
The international bankster machine seeking to colonize Western nations through debt is now meeting resistance from Greece, to France, to Ireland, to Italy, to Spain, to Portugal, and to the U.K.
These new protests in Ireland and Italy follow a crippling 2-week strike in France where citizens took over fuel refineries and other vital infrastructure, more strikes in Greece which took over the Acropolis, and a massive student protest in the UK that caused physical damage to government buildings. All of these protests were sparked by governments reducing benefits or increasing fees and taxes on a population that had little to do with the private gambling of banks.
These European protests are intensifying as the international bankers move to collect their “pound of flesh” through austerity and sale of public assets. As Europeans are becoming acutely aware of the dubious plan to loot them and the anger at their corrupt elected officials for bowing to banks has reached a boiling point. In all cases the governments are enforcing austerity measures on the people after the private banks over-leveraged themselves to the breaking point, threatening to bring down entire nations.
For years the bankers churned out easy credit to these nations while they invested public and private funds into worthless credit default swaps and derivatives. As if orchestrated to perfection, they pulled the plug on those toxic assets, essentially bankrupting the more fragile developed countries, followed by calling their debts due. Now they’re demanding that European governments be forced into IMF bailouts that impose drastic austerity measures on the populace.
By forcing tax increases and reducing benefits for the citizens of sovereign nations, the IMF is essentially rewriting their laws. Well, it appears that the citizens of Europe have had enough. The massive protests, strikes, and riots that have swept through the streets of many European countries have resulted in growing calls to reject the bailout money used to prop up failed banks and corrupt governments. The Irish people prefer to default on the debt which drove the EU ‘completely mad’.
The protesters are getting support from someone who is experiencing the outcome of resisting public bailouts of private banking debts. The President of Iceland recently remarked that they’re in much better shape than Ireland because they let the private banks fail and their currency naturally devalued, allowing them to regain some competitiveness relative to their neighbors:
“The difference is that in Iceland we allowed the banks to fail,” Grimsson said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Mark Barton today. “These were private banks and we didn’t pump money into them in order to keep them going; the state did not shoulder the responsibility of the failed private banks.”
UK’s Libertarian politician, Nigel Farage, once viewed as a fringe player, is now getting international recognition for forewarning his European comrades about the troubles in the system. He’s quickly becoming a hero to the banker resistance as his credibility reaches new heights for being proved right — much like his U.S. counterpart Congressman Ron Paul. His rants in the European Parliament are going viral on YouTube as the people are waking up to their servitude to banks and a lack of true democracy and sovereignty.
Nigel Farage speaks with such confidence against the EU, as he should, given that a recent mainstream media poll showed 99% of UK citizens want out of the Euro. The battle against the banking cartel is clearly happening with Europe as the spearhead. As Europeans continue to fight back against corrupt international banksters, lazy Americans continue to live with a much lower standard of living and do nothing to challenge the system.
The rage in Europe and quiet streets in America is causing the euro to fall against the dollar. The dollar was all but declared dead in the lead-up to the Fed’s QE2, but now the eurozone debt crisis has taken center stage. The European Council is set to meet again this December to amend the Lisbon Treaty to essentially legalize more bailouts. Some insiders are calling it an impossible mission to get all European countries to agree on fair amendments. The outcome of these December meetings will assuredly be pivotal in determining whether the euro “experiment” will survive.
If it crumbles, so then does the structure for a global currency. Indeed, the front lines in the battle to conquer plans for a global currency and the end of sovereign nation states is being waged by the angry citizens of Europe. Bravo comrades, keep up the fight!
Ireland Bailout Fails To Calm Nervy Markets! Cost of Insuring Spanish and Portuguese Debt Hits Record High!
- The banksters are intent on raping the Portuguese and Spanish people. Who is screwing around in the CDS market to make billions of dollars? Illuminist banksters and their hedge funds. This is financial world war. Both Portugal and Spain are targeted for acquisition via fraudulent finance. The sheeple will be made to pay for the bailouts. Calling it a bailout is a misnomer. There is no bailout, it is more debt. It is debt enslavement of the sheeple. They are being made to pay for banksters’ crime. All it does is to make the problem bigger and kick it down the road. Inevitably, a Eurozone wide sovereign debt collapse will come. The ECB will then QE to infinity. The Euro is toast!
Ireland bailout fails to calm nervy markets
– FTSE 100 down 2%; Dow loses 1%
– Euro slides to two-month low against US dollar
– Cost of insuring Spanish and Portuguese debt hits record high
Stocks fell on both sides of the Atlantic, the euro tumbled, and the cost of borrowing for Ireland, Spain and Portugal jumped today, as details of the republic’s €85bn (£72bn) bailout failed to quell anxiety that the crisis in the eurozone was deepening. Amid speculation that the European authorities may be left with little option but to embark on large-scale quantitative easing to try to bolster sentiment, Ireland’s borrowing costs shot as high as 9.6% as the terms of its bailout by the International Monetary Fund and European Union were digested by investors.
“The bottom line is that the financial markets are unimpressed, and that’s the most generous description,” Neil MacKinnon, global macro strategist at VTB Capital told Associated Press. “The crisis rumbles on.”
The cost of borrowing for the peripheral eurozone countries stayed stubbornly high, with Portugual above 7% and Spain above 5%, as speculation focused on the next indebted country which might need financial help. Italy endured its biggest one day rise in borrowing costs for a decade.
The cost of insuring Portuguese debt against default rose to a record high after Nouriel Roubini, economics professor and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, urged Lisbon to take international assistance. “Like it or not, Portugal is reaching the critical point,” Roubini told the Portuguese newspaper Diário Económico. “Perhaps it could be a good idea to ask for a bailout in a preventative manner.”
Ireland’s bailout failed to dent fears of contagion across the eurozone despite rallying cries by France’s economy minister Christine Lagarde and Germany’s finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, who both insisted Portugal would not need help. Andrew Lim, head of financials research at Matrix investment bank, said: “The Irish bailout doesn’t solve the euro problem … We are looking at Portugal, then Spain next.”
The fragility in the markets led to speculation that the European Central Bank will delay attempts to begin withdrawing funds for banks at its meeting on Thursday, even though the €35bn earmarked for Ireland’s banks was intended to wean them off the ECB’s life support.
Analysts said although the Ireland bailout had been accompanied by plans for new ways to rescue troubled eurozone countries after 2013, when the current emergency schemes run out, investors had been left confused. It was still not clear in what circumstances bondholders would be expected to share the losses of countries that were allowed to reschedule their debt after 2013 – in effect defaulting.
“Given the lack of clarity about what constitutes the appearance of insolvency, and what type of restructuring might occur in such a case, markets are likely to remain wary of holding government debt issued by other troubled eurozone countries like Portugal and Spain,” said Ben May, European economist at Capital Economics.
“With huge political frictions still clearly in place within the region, fears of a future break-up of the region look set to remain, placing further downward pressure on the euro.”
- The Germans aren’t stupid. They have been subsidizing everyone’s profligacy. They would much rather have their Deutschmarks back. Any person with half a brain knows that the Mark was the strongest and most stable currency in Europe (apart from the Swiss Frank). Germans are better off leaving EU and EMU. Why submit to unelected officials who do not answer to the people, who make laws by fiat and impose their will on the people! The EU and EMU are tools of the Illuminist banksters.
Even Germans Love Nigel Farage’s EU Attack!
UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage has become a Europe-wide internet sensation again with his latest attack on Brussels bureaucrats. His speech to the European Parliament last week has been viewed 200,000 times on YouTube and has been translated into German.
Addressing EU President Herman van Rompuy Mr Farage said: “You’ve been in office for one year and in that time the whole edifice is beginning to crumble, there’s chaos and the money’s running out. I should thank you. You should be the pin-up boy of the eurosceptic movement. “Your fanaticism is out in the open. You talked about the fact that it was a lie to say the nation state could exist in the 21st century globalised world.
“Well, that may well be true in the case of Belgium, which hasn’t had a government for six months, but for the rest of us, people are saying we don’t want that flag, we don’t want the anthem, we don’t want this political class – we want the whole thing consigned to the dustbin of history.”
The Ukip leader then turned on Economic Commissioner Olli Rehn for suggesting that Ireland delay any general election until its budget had approved. “Who the hell do you think you people are?” he said. “You are very, very dangerous people. Your obsession with creating this Euro state means you are happy to destroy democracy.” Mr Farage’s previous outburst last February attracted almost 600,000 views on YouTube and resulted in an official reprimand.
- Never allow yourself to be driven by the propaganda in the financial MSM. The USD has been rising. So, it appears that it is ok. I don’t think so. The forex market is a highly manipulated market, especially with regards to the USD. There are Big Bankster Boys who can see all the stop-loss positions, whose software can detail out all the long and short positions. The banksters simply trigger all the stop loss positions with their knowledge. Thus, we see high volatility. Banksters make tons of money. It is likely taking money from a baby.
- Fundamentally, there is no economic reason for a strong USD. The current counter trend rally will end. The suckers who bought into a strong USD rally will once again be ‘killed’. The announcement by Russia and China to do away with the USD in bilateral trade means the game is up. China has also signed agreements with Southeast Asian countries and others to settle international trade in CNY. Paul C. Roberts, former head of policy at the Department of Treasury:
The Stench of US Economic Decay: Russia and China Dump the US Dollar
On Thanksgiving eve the English language China Daily and People’s Daily Online reported that Russia and China have concluded an agreement to abandon the use of the US dollar in their bilateral trade and to use their own currencies in its place. The Russians and Chinese said that they had taken this step in order to insulate their economies from the risks that have undermined their confidence in the US dollar as a world reserve currency.
This is big news, especially for the news dead Thanksgiving holiday period, but I did not see it reported on Bloomberg, CNN, New York Times or anywhere in the US print or TV media. The ostrich’s head remains in the sand. Previously, China concluded the same agreement with Brazil.
As China has a large and growing supply of dollars from trade surpluses with which to conduct trade, China is signaling that she prefers Russian rubles and Brazilian reals to more US dollars.
The American financial press finds solace in the episodes when sovereign debt scares in the EU send the dollar up against the euro and UK pound. But these currency movements are just measures of financial players shorting troubled EU-denominated debt. They are not a measure of dollar strength.
The dollar’s role as world reserve currency is one of the main instruments of American financial hegemony. We haven’t been told how much damage Wall Street fraud has inflicted on EU financial institutions, but the EU countries no longer need the US dollar for trade between themselves as they share a common currency. Once the OPEC countries cease to hold the dollars that they are paid for oil, dollar hegemony will have faded away.
Another instrument of American financial hegemony is the IMF. Whenever a country cannot make good on its debts and pay back the American banks, in steps the IMF with an austerity package that squeezes the country’s population with higher taxes and cuts in education, medical and income support programs until the bankers get their money back.
This is now happening to Ireland and is likely to spread to Portugal, Spain, and perhaps even to France. After the American-caused financial crisis, the IMF’s role as a tool of US imperialism is less and less acceptable. The point could come when governments can no longer sell out their people for the sake of the American banks.
There are other signs that some countries are tiring of America’s irresponsible use of power. Turkey’s civilian governments have long been under the thumb of the American influenced Turkish military. However, recently the civilian government moved against two top generals and an admiral suspected of involvement in planning a coup. The civilian government further asserted itself when the prime minister announced on Thanksgiving day that Turkey is prepared to react to any Israeli offensive against Lebanon. Here is an American NATO ally freeing itself from American suzerainty exercised through the Turkish military. Who knows, Germany could be next.
Meanwhile in America the sheeple remain content with, or blind to, their role as sheep to be slaughtered to feed the rich. The Obama administration has managed to come up with a Deficit Commission whose members want to pay for the multi-trillion dollar wars that are enriching the military/security complex and the multi-trillion dollar bailouts of the financial system by reducing annual cost-of-living increases for Social Security, raising the retirement age to 69, ending the mortgage interest deduction, ending the tax deduction for employer-provided health insurance, imposing a 6.5% federal sales tax, while cutting the top tax rate for the rich.
Even the Federal Reserve’s low interest rates are aimed at helping the banksters. The low interest rates deprive retirees and those living on their savings of interest income. The low interest rates have also deprived corporate pensions of funding. To fill the gap corporations are issuing billions of dollars in corporate bonds in order to fund their pensions. Corporate debt is increasing, but not plant and equipment that would produce earnings to service the debt. As the economy worsens, servicing the additional debt will be a problem.
In addition, America’s elderly are finding that fewer and fewer doctors will accept them as patients as a 23% cut looms in the already low Medicare payments to doctors. The American government only has resources for wars of aggression, police state intrusions, and bailouts of rich banksters. The American citizen has become a mere subject to be bled for the ruling oligarchies.
The police state attitude of the TSA toward airline travelers is a clear indication that Americans are no longer citizens with rights but subjects without rights. Perhaps the day will come when oppressed Americans will take to the streets like the French, the Greeks, the Irish, and the British.
KNOW THE FACTS: North Korea Lost Close to 30% of Its Population as a Result of US Bombings in the 1950s!
- You think North Korea’s regime is bad and genocidal? Yes, you are right. Kim Jong Il is an evil bast***. But the western Illuminist cabal which controls America and western Europe is even worse. One obvious characteristic of Satanism is: it always masquerades itself in light as wolves in sheep’s clothing. It spews righteous rhetoric while fomenting genocide, terrorism and wars, all the while hiding behind propaganda, lies of the corporate MSM. The Anglo-American Illuminist cabal is remaking the world into the Mystery Babylon Whore and its subservient 10 horn Beast.
Revelation 17:3-6 (New King James Version)
3 So he carried me away in the Spirit into the wilderness. And I saw a woman sitting on a scarlet beast which was full of names of blasphemy, having seven heads and ten horns. 4 The woman was arrayed in purple and scarlet, and adorned with gold and precious stones and pearls, having in her hand a golden cup full of abominations and the filthiness of her fornication.[a] 5 And on her forehead a name was written:
MYSTERY, BABYLON THE GREAT, THE MOTHER OF HARLOTS AND OF THE ABOMINATIONS OF THE EARTH.
6 I saw the woman, drunk with the blood of the saints and with the blood of the martyrs of Jesus. And when I saw her, I marveled with great amazement.
Daniel 7:23 (New King James Version)
23 “Thus he said: ‘ The fourth beast shall be a fourth kingdom on earth,
Which shall be different from all other kingdoms, and shall devour the whole earth, trample it and break it in pieces.
- The North Koreans really suffered at the hands of US genocidal bombings.
KNOW THE FACTS: North Korea lost close to 30% of its population as a result of US bombings in the 1950s
The World is at a dangerous crossroads.
The US is seeking a pretext to wage war on North Korea.
North Korea is said to constitute a threat to Global Security.
From the Truman Doctrine to Obama. The history of the 1950s Korean war confirms that extensive war crimes were committed against the Korean people. As confirmed by the statement of General Curtis Lemay:
“Over a period of three years or so we killed off – what – twenty percent of the population.”1
North Korea lost close to thirty percent of its population as a result of US led bombings in the 1950s. US military sources confirm that 20 percent of North Korea’s population was killed off over a three period of intensive bombings:
“After destroying North Korea’s 78 cities and thousands of her villages, and killing countless numbers of her civilians, [General] LeMay remarked, “Over a period of three years or so we killed off – what – twenty percent of the population.” It is now believed that the population north of the imposed 38th Parallel lost nearly a third its population of 8 – 9 million people during the 37-month long “hot” war, 1950 – 1953, perhaps an unprecedented percentage of mortality suffered by one nation due to the belligerance of another.”2
During The Second World War the United Kingdom lost 0.94% of its population, France lost 1.35%, China lost 1.89% and the US lost 0.32%. During the Korean war, North Korea lost close to 30 % of its population.
These figures of civilian deaths in North Korea should also be compared to those compiled for Iraq by the Lancet Study (John Hopkins School of Public Health). The Lancet study estimated a total of 655,000 Iraqi civilian deaths, following the US led invasion (March 2003- June 2006).
We call upon the people of the US, Canada and NATO countries to put pressure on their governments. A war on North Korea would engulf the entire region.
PEACE IS PATRIOTIC.
SAY NO TO A WAR ON KOREA
SAY NO TO MILITARY ESCALATION
Michel Chossudovsky, Global Research, 27 November 2010
- The Irish sheeple are being screwed. Many of them are awake and aware. But their politician snakes have sold them out! The Illuminist banksters have taken over! You cannot solve a debt problem with more debts! This is a SCAM, grand larceny!
Pension reserve funds to be spent on banks
UP to €15 billion from the National Pensions Reserve Fund, set aside when the Celtic Tiger was still roaring, is likely to be used to recapitalise three of the country’s banks. Amid speculation last night that the rate of interest to be charged on the EU/IMF bailout could be as much as 6.7%, Fine Gael’s finance spokesman Michael Noonan said that kind of rate was “far too high” and unaffordable on any reasonable projection of growth. The Department of Finance said the interest rate had still not been finalised, but given that much of the loan would be repayable over nine years the rate could be higher than the 5.2% charged to Greece but would not be as high as the 6.7% being quoted by some brokers.
Meanwhile, Anglo Irish Bank, which was downgraded to junk status yesterday evening, is expected to be closed swiftly, together with the Irish Nationwide Building Society, under the EU/IMF loan plan. Officials hope to finalise the details of the €85bn package later today and have EU finance ministers approve it tomorrow.
The emphasis in the plan is to avoid drawing down money from the bailout and rely in the first place on money from the Pension Reserve Fund for the banks, and on the €20bn the state borrowed earlier this year to part-fund next year’s national budget. Economist at the Economic and Social Research Institute, John FitzGerald, said he believed it would be a good idea to use the money in the pensions fund to recapitalise the banks, and keep the EU/IMF funds in reserve in case they needed further money later.
“Using the €20bn in cash we have first would be good for the country in the short run. It would leave the opening debt for 2012 €20bn lower and interest payments would be €1bn less. It would also leave the national debt lower than forecast at the end of next year,” he said. About €35bn of the total EU/IMF loan was being earmarked last night for the banks. The Government would prefer not to tap this sum but keep it in reserve for contingencies during the three-year programme.
Instead, they will use the €15bn available to them in the pension fund to recapitalise Allied Irish Bank, Bank of Ireland and the Educational Building Society. They have already used the remaining €10bn from the pension fund to buy shares in AIB and BoI.
- Spain’s economy is bigger than Ireland, Portugal and Greece’s combined. Should it default it can bring the entire Eurozone down with it. However, I seriously doubt the Illuminati will allow Spain to default. They will build this engineered crisis into gigantic proportion and then sell their pre-planned solution once again. It will be another takeover by the Illuminist banksters while the sheeple will be made to pay for it! The ECB will engage in massive amount of money printing (QE) because it will run out of money. At some point in time, the Eurozone may just decide to discard a few member states that are too difficult to integrate.
- At the end of this circus, it will be a financial mega-merger between a North American Union (NAU) and the Eurozone to form the New World Order global government, with a World Currency and a Global Supra-National Central Bank.
For Europe’s Future, Spain Is All That Matters
Last Spring it was Greece that was in crisis mode—then last week, it was Ireland—and coming up next is Portugal—but all those pale in comparison to Spain. If I had to bet on which country will bring about the end of the Euro—and perhaps even the end of the European Union—I’d have to say it’s Spain.
Right now, no one is talking about Spain—Spanish spreads are as quiet as a guilty man in a police line-up—everyone’s too concerned over Ireland, and the upcoming Portuguese Situation. But Spain is the key—Spain is what you should be paying attention to, if you want to find out what will happen to the European Monetary Union (EMU), and the European Union (EU) itself.
To add insult to injury, all this politico-economic theater didn’t staunch what most worried the EU and the ECB: Contagion. All the smaller, weaker European economies in the EMU are in the same boat as Ireland: They are all insolvent. Not just the PIIGS—Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain—but also Belgium, and maybe even France, if we steel ourselves and look at the numbers. Right now, though, contagion has reached Portugal—the next-weakest link in the European Chain:
Portuguese debt yields are widening by about 50 basis point this morning, to 4.328% over the German bunds (10-year)—even after the Portuguese government implemented a second austerity package this past October, following their May spending cuts which did not convince the bond markets.
That’s because the Portuguese have a huge fiscal deficit: 9.4% of GDP. They are cutting spending, and they are raising taxes too—but still, their bond yields are rising: The market doesn’t think that Portugal will make it through this crisis intact. Just like Greece, just like Ireland, the Portuguese will need to be bailed out. And so that clears the way for the bond market’s anxieties to focus on the real elephant in the drawing room:
According to IMF numbers for 2009, the gross domestic product of Greece was $331 billion, Ireland was $221 billion, and Portugal was $233 billion—but Spain’s GDP in 2009 was $1.468 trillion. Roughly twice Greece, Ireland and Portugal combined. In other words, close to half of Germany’s GDP.
And what is Spain’s fiscal deficit? Last year, it was officially 7.9% of GDP—twice the EU limit. Not Irish or Portuguese or much less Greek numbers, but still up there—officially. Why do I say “officially”? And now put “officially” in scare quotes? Because of a very disturbing anonymous paper, released last September 30. Written by a local economist, it basically said that the Spanish GDP numbers for 2009 were cooked—and then went ahead and showed the whys and hows of this analysis. ….. The anonymous Spanish paper gave a credible analysis, which I for one believe. And considering the shit going on in Greece, regarding faked GDP data—and knowing the Spanish—I wouldn’t be a bit surprised that Spanish GDP figures have been faked in Madrid, in order to keep everything copacetic.
But even if they haven’t been, it’s not as if the official numbers are painting a rosy picture: Spain has nearly 20% unemployment, near 10% yearly fiscal deficit to GDP, and no clear way how to get out of this hole that it is in. So much of Spanish growth over the last decade was fueled by real estate development and over-levaraging, that there’s no clear way forward for the Spanish.
Therefore, to bail out Spain, and plug up its fiscal balance sheet hole over the next three years would cost €450 billion—minimum. That’s about $600 billion. Look at that number again—look at it closely, and take your time: €450 billion.
That’s twice the size of Ireland’s total GDP for 2009. In order to figure out how much each party would have to shoulder of this €450 billion price tag, Bruce Krasting, in some private e-mail exchanges, thought that the percentages that the EU, the ECB and the IMF were shouldering for the Greek and Irish bailouts could serve as a template.
Fair enough: If we go by Greek and Irish percentages, then roughly a third of that €450 billion price tag to bail out Spain would be shouldered by the IMF—and as everyone knows, the U.S. puts up 20% of IMF money. So the U.S. would be on the line for €30 billion—$40 billion—to save Spain.
Then Bruce delivered his verdict: “The U.S. is going to say ‘Yes’ to that and ‘No’ to California? No way. Not going to happen with this new Congress.” BK is one smart customer—I completely agree with his analysis: No way will the U.S. shell out $40 billion to save Spain.
Therefore, the IMF’s participation in a Spanish bail-out will be severely reduced, if not marginal. Therefore, bailing out Spain will be a strictly European affair. Does Europe have €450 billion to bail out Spain? That is, does Germany have €450 billion to bail out Spain? No it does not. It does not have the money for such a bailout—and even if it did, it does not have the political will to push through such a bailout. Period.
But even if—by some monumental financial miracle coupled to an equally monumental political miracle—Europe somehow managed to find the money to bail out Spain without depreciating the Euro? What then?
The Spanish economy won’t be improving any time soon—and neither will the economies of the other smaller countries like Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Belgium. Not when they’re locked into the Euro, and are therefore unable to depreciate in order to spur growth and investment.
See, even if there is the money and the political will to save Spain—which I don’t believe—the only way to bail out Spain in such a way that it has an economic future is to cut it loose from the Euro. If it is kept locked in the EMU, the Euro will become a weight around its neck, dragging its economy down until in a few years, there will be the need for yet another bail out of Spain. That goes doubly so for the smaller countries, like Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Belgium.
Therefore, I believe that if and when there is a run on Spanish sovereign debt, and Spain slips into the position of having to be bailed out like Greece and Ireland, that will be Crunchtime Europe: That will force an inevitable realignment of the European economy, and the European continent. Best case?
Though they remain in the European Union, the weaker economies exit the EMU and go back to local currencies, which they quickly depreciate, while their Euro-denominated sovereign debts are restructured and paid off over time. The Euro becomes the currency of France, Germany, Holland, Finland and Austria. Worst case?
I can imagine a number of worst cases, all of them different, except for one thing in common: They’ll all be bad.