Socio-Economics History Blog

Socio-Economics & History Commentary

Lebanon Warns UN: Israel Planning to Attack Us !


October 31, 2009 Posted by | GeoPolitics | , , , | 3 Comments

IRRI Says India May Import Rice, Fueling ‘Panic’ !

  • This is looking like the repeat of early 2008 when the price of rice escalated. 2009 has been a bust for farmers. The world is suffering from massive drought and inconsistent rainfall. With global grain stocks at dangerously low-level, this can result in global famine starting in Q2 2010. Bloomberg reports :
    India, the world’s second-largest rice grower, may become a net importer for the first time in 21 years in 2010, potentially sparking the kind of “panic” that sent prices to records in 2008, an agricultural economist said.  India may import as much as 3 million metric tons next year after the wet season harvest plunged,
    Samarendu Mohanty, a senior economist at the International Rice Research Institute, said in an interview. Those would be the imports since 2006, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.
    Food price protests swept the globe from Bangladesh to Haiti last year after fears of shortages prompted producers including India to cut rice exports and importers increased purchases to secure supplies, sending prices to a record. “India can start it again,” Mohanty, author of “Financial Volatility in Agricultural Trade” published in 2002, said yesterday in an interview in Cebu, central Philippines. “If rice prices rise, there will be civil unrest in many countries.”
    Rice for January delivery gained 0.5 percent to $14.255 per 100 pounds on the Chicago Board of Trade as of 4:18 p.m. in Singapore, extending yesterday’s 3 percent jump. The price reached a record $25.07 in April 2008. India’s wet season harvest, which accounts for 80 percent of total output, may slump as much as 24 percent to 65 million tons, from 85 million a year ago, said Mohanty.
    Stockpile Drop
    The nation is forecast to continue exporting higher-priced basmati rice, with shipments of up to 2.5 million tons, Mohanty said. Each year, the government sells 20 million tons of non- basmati rice at subsidized prices to about 65 million poor families, Mohanty said.
    A drop in India’s production after the weakest monsoon since 1972 may cause stockpiles in the world’s five
    largest exporters to plunge by a third to 20 million tons in the year ending Sept. 2010, the lowest level in five years, Concepcion Calpe, senior economist at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, said Oct. 9.
    “The Indian government can’t afford to have a very low stockpile of rice next year in case another drought or flooding hurts crops,” Rakesh Singh, head trader at
    Emmsons International Ltd., which supplies about 500,000 tons a year in India, said yesterday. “We may hear about a tender in the next few weeks.”
    Tight Situation
    The supply situation “is very tight,” Mohanty said. “It depends on how the country reacts, whether there’s a panic in India or the Philippines. Those are the problem countries right now that can tilt the market one way or the other.”
    The Philippines may boost purchases to 2 million tons in 2010, from 1.78 million tons this year, after storms damaged crops, the National Food Authority said Oct. 9. The Southeast Asian nation is bringing forward imports for 2010 after the losses, National Food Administrator Jessup Navarro said Oct. 26.
    Crop losses may help push rice prices back to record levels, Philippine Agriculture Secretary
    Arthur Yap and the U.S. Rice Producers Association President Dwight Roberts said yesterday. “We are not very far from another rerun of 2008 prices,” Yap said. Still, India has no plans to import rice because reserves are adequate, Nanda Kumar, the country’s farm secretary, said in New Delhi on Oct. 27.
    Duty Scrapped
    “They can survive without imports, if they decide to do so, but there are risks involved,” Mohanty said. “If they have a drought next year, they have to import.” India’s Central Board of Excise and Customs scrapped the 70 percent import tax on rice through September 2010 to boost domestic supply after the crop losses, the Press Trust of India reported Oct. 27, citing an unnamed official.
    India’s trade ministry and customs authorities said they have yet to receive notification of the decision. The country’s return to the import market would push Thai rice export prices, the regional benchmark, to $800 a ton, Emmsons’ Singh said. That compares with this week’s
    price For 100 percent grade-B Thai white rice of $525, and the May 2008 record of $1,038.
    “Thailand is not in a hurry to sell at all because they know the market isn’t going to go down,” Mohanty said. “The market is most likely to go up.” The Thai government aims to export more than 2 million metric tons of rice next year under a government-to-government sales program, Commerce Minister Porntiva Nakasai said today.
    “Demand from India and the Philippines would help boost exports,” Porntiva said in Bangkok, without giving a total for the state sales program this year.
    ‘Huge Stockpile’
    To be sure, India “has a huge stockpile of rice that’s way above the buffer norms and I don’t expect any imports,”
    Atul Chaturvedi, president at Adani Enterprises Ltd., India’s biggest private trader of farm goods, said today. “The decision to abolish the import duty may be just a precautionary step.”
    Rice output in Uruguay, Brazil and Argentina, South America’s three largest exporters, is likely to drop 5 percent in 2009-2010 after drought cut water levels, Bruno Lanfranco, senior researcher at the
    National Agriculture Research Institute of Uruguay, said today. Brazil’s imports will rise to 900,000 tons in the marketing year 2009-2010, from 800,000 tons a year earlier, he added.
  • See also:
    India Scraps Rice Import Tax.
    Food Shortages Loom in India!
    Is World Hunger About To Start In India? Food Shortages Coming to America? Global Starvation Imminent as US Faces Crop Failure?


October 31, 2009 Posted by | Economics, Social Trends | , , | 1 Comment

Wilbur Ross Sees ‘Huge’ Commercial Real Estate Crash !

  • This is the next phase of the real estate crisis. No respite in sight. Bloomberg reports:
    Billionaire investor Wilbur L. Ross Jr., said today the U.S. is in the beginning of a “huge crash in commercial real estate.” “All of the components of real estate value are going in the wrong direction simultaneously,” said Ross, one of nine money managers participating in a government program to remove toxic assets from bank balance sheets. “Occupancy rates are going down. Rent rates are going down and the capitalization rate — the return that investors are demanding to buy a property — are going up.”
    U.S. commercial property sales are forecast to fall to the lowest in almost two decades as the industry endures its worst slump since the savings and loan crisis of the early 1990s, according to property research firm Real Capital Analytics Inc. The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price
    Indices already have fallen almost 41 percent since October 2007, Moody’s Investors Service said Oct. 19.
    George Soros, speaking today at a lecture organized by the Central European University in Budapest, said a “bloodletting” may be coming for leveraged buyouts and commercial real estate. “The American consumer will no longer be able to serve as the motor for the world economy,” said Soros, 79.
    His comments came in the same week that Capmark Financial Group Inc. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after originating $60 billion in commercial property loans in 2006 and 2007.
    ‘Extreme Caution’
    Ross, the 71-year-old chairman and chief executive officer of WL Ross & Co. LLC, said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio that he would use “extreme caution” before putting money into commercial real estate, especially office space, because properties are losing tenants. U.S. office vacancies hit a five-year high of almost 17 percent in the third quarter, while shopping center vacancies climbed to their highest since 1992, according to the property research firm Reis Inc. “I think it’s going to take quite a while to work itself out,” Ross said.
    As of Oct. 15, Ross said he had spent less than $100 million of at least $1.5 billion available to him under the Public-Private Investment Program, an investment pool of private and government money for purchasing distressed assets from financial institutions.


October 31, 2009 Posted by | Economics | , , | 1 Comment

WebBot Project: Dollar Devaluation, Famine, HyperInflation… Survivor Skills.

Part   5   ,   Part   6    Part   7     Part   8     Part   9     Part   10   ,   Part   11   ,   Part   12  

  • 29 October interview of Clif High and George Ure. Clif and George updates us on what is happening. What portion of their forecast has come true? Are we still on course for a USD collapse? Will we see global famine in 2010? They give us also simple survivor skill tips: solar energy, self sufficiency….etc..


October 31, 2009 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on WebBot Project: Dollar Devaluation, Famine, HyperInflation… Survivor Skills.