Socio-Economics History Blog

Socio-Economics & History Commentary

Something Very Bad is Looming! Gold To Rise in Coming Monetary Collapse.

  • Bob Chapman of International Forecaster is sounding the alarm on what is about to happen :
    ….something very bad is looming – we don’t know the exact configuration yet, but we think the key is the collapse of the dollar, which will send gold and silver to considerably higher prices. These events could unfold over the next 2 to 4 months. There could be devaluation and default of the US dollar and American debt. You must have at least a 6-month supply of freeze dried and dehydrated foods, a water filer for brackish water, and assault weapons with plenty of ammo and clips. You should put as much of your wealth as you can in gold and silver coins and shares. You should not own any stocks in the stock market except gold and silver shares, you should not own bonds the exception being Canadian government securities, you should not own CDs, cash value life insurance policies and annuities.
    And, needless to say, except for your home you should be totally out of real estate, residential and commercial because it will remain illiquid for many years to come. Continue to pay your normal debts down because we do not know how they will be treated when we arrive at devaluation and default. We certainly don’t want to have to tell you this, but the way things are shaping up it doesn’t look good. As we write this the dollar is breaking 80 on the USDX. Interest rates are climbing, and have broken out to the upside. Gold and silver are poised to break into new high territory and the stock market is preparing to retest 6,600 on the Dow. You have been warned, act accordingly.
    The Chinese and Russians are the laughing stock of the US and European Illuminists at the G-20 meetings concerning talk about a new world reserve currency to supplant the dollar.  With China’s gold reserves of about a thousand tons and Russia’s five hundred tons, they are like penny ante poker players trying to get in on a thousand dollar ante game.  They need five to ten thousand tons of gold reserves just to be an average player in “The Big Game,” much less a leading and influential player.  The rest of their foreign exchange reserves are denominated in fiat currencies, which are all practically worthless except for the euro and Swiss franc. The euro has about 5% backing of gold and the Swiss could have 25% backing if they again desired gold backing.  China has about two trillion dollars worth of foreign exchange reserves, while Russia has about 400 billion dollars worth.  It does not take a math genius to figure out that two trillion times nothing is still nothing.  They are creditors who hold worthless bonds and notes.  Big deal.  Their only trump card is that they can make gold skyrocket and the dollar tank before the Illuminists are ready to take our financial system down.  This is where their real leverage lies.
    China and Russia are both well aware that they must acquire substantially more gold if they want to have any say on the matter of a world currency. The trick is, how to acquire new gold reserves without sending gold on a moon-shot or causing harm to the dollar by dumping dollars for gold.  This is the opposite of what the Fed and US Treasury want, at least for now, until they are ready to take the system down to pave the way for a world currency and a one world government.  So the Chinese and Russians are now at loggerheads with the US and European Illuminists.  What China and Russia need to do in their own best interests is an anathema to the Fed and the US Treasury. This may explain the IMF gold sale rumors.  China wants more gold, and this would be a way to grab a large chunk without running the gold price up, which would make the Fed go ballistic.
    China is caught in a dollar trap.  If they try to unload dollars, they destroy the remainder of their holdings, so they have to keep vacuuming up a large portion of the dollars that are being dumped in the form of treasury bonds to support criminal zombie bank bailouts and rampant socialistic welfare spending which the US government euphemistically calls a stimulus package. If China doesn’t keep sucking up dollars, the US will have to monetize more and more treasury bonds to “save the economy,” which is another euphemism for the socialization of Wall Streets losses courtesy of the US taxpayer.
    China and Russia are in a very poor position monetarily, at least as bad as Europe and the US, perhaps even worse.  They have no business pushing their weight around when they their gold reserve holdings are inconsequential. So what if they are creditors.  The debts owed to them are denominated mostly, or at least substantially, in dollars, which are becoming ever more worthless as Emperor Obama throws lavish dollar bailout parties for the rich bankers and the social welfare recipients, while the middle class and non-anointed upper class, which could reduce the ensuing inflation caused by these lavish dollar parties via increased production, are given token relief.
    While China is in a dollar trap, Russia is in an oil trap.  The Illuminati still control the price of oil, so Russia is at their mercy as well.  There recent financial market experience was an absolute disaster as oil tanked.  Their markets were a shambles, and had to be closed down many times to stop panic selling and to control  speculative short-selling.  They had to spend down a large portion of their reserves to support the ruble and their financial markets.  They are hardly in a position to dictate terms regarding a world currency.  If they try to bully Europe with natural gas, this will backfire.  The price of oil will then drop to $15 a barrel.


June 1, 2009 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Russia Creates Its Own Version of NATO in Central Asia to be Prepared For Big War

  • The Russians have had enough of the meddling by America in its western front. What happened in Georgia last year was clearly with the tacit understanding and support of America. NATO is still pretty much in the mode of expansion. From a Russian perspective, NATO is encroaching on the old Soviet Union territory and is behaving in a threatening manner. Pravda reports :
    The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) follows the instructions from President Dmitry Medvedev, who ordered to increase the military constituent and develop the coalition force development. A strong military group, which may appear in Central Asia in the nearest future, will make the CSTO become an analogue of NATO. The following post-Soviet countries are included in the treaty: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
    The question about the establishment of collective rapid response forces within the scope of the organization has been practically solved. The Russian administration is now working on a much larger project, The Kommersant newspaper wrote. A large group of troops is to be deployed in Central Asia in addition to Russia-Belarus and Russia-Armenia groups, which already exist within the scope of the CSTO. A package of documents has been prepared and will be coordinated with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan soon.
    “The work is being conducted in all directions. It will be a purely military structure that will be set up to maintain security in Central Asia in case of attack from the outside,” a source from Russia’s Foreign Ministry said.
    The number of servicemen of the new group is unknown. Vitaly Strugovets, the press secretary of the CSTO, only said that the group would consist of the units of five countries – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
    The creation of the military group in Central Asia corresponds to Moscow’s objective to make the CSTO become a pro-Russian bloc, the military power of which would be similar to that of NATO.
    The National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation till 2020, approved by President Medvedev, says that Moscow views the Collective Security Treaty Organization as the key instrument to counter regional challenges, political and military threats. The document also says that the struggle for the energy sources on the Caspian Sea and in Central Asia may lead to armed conflicts in the region.
    The presidents of the OCST member countries are to sign the agreement about the establishment of the rapid response forces within the scope of the organization on June 14.
    The decision to establish the rapid response forces was made on February 4. Moscow will provide an airborne division and an air assault brigade – about 8,000 servicemen. Kazakhstan will provide 4,000 military men of its air assault brigade too. Each of other allies will limit themselves to one battalion.
    The military group in Central Asia will be necessary in case of a serious threat is posed to the territorial integrity or in case of war. The rapid deployment forces will also be used to suppress small armed conflicts in the region.


June 1, 2009 Posted by | EndTimes, GeoPolitics | | Comments Off on Russia Creates Its Own Version of NATO in Central Asia to be Prepared For Big War

Israel Holds Biggest Civil Defense Drill In State History

  • The war drums are beating louder for a middle east war. Will this be the war that ends with a final 7 year peace treaty as stated in the bible? Haaretz reports :
    A five-day civil defense exercise, simulating an attack on the country, started on Sunday. Named Turning Point 3, the drills will be the most extensive ever held and practice new measures to safeguard civilians.
    On Tuesday the exercise will spread nationwide and include emergency sirens and air-raid shelters. The cabinet held a special session Sunday on moves during an attack; the ministries will then open their emergency headquarters to rehearse various scenarios.
    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told cabinet ministers during the briefing that the drill was a “routine” procedure and not directed against any regional entity in particular. “This is a routine action intended to prepare the Home Front for emergency and has nothing to do with intelligence information of any kind,” he said.
    “We are required to defend Israel, its cities, various installations, from the possibility of attacks by missiles, rockets or other weapons,” he added. “I think the fact that Israel is preparing more from exercise to exercise and is capable of better protecting its citizens decreases the chance that we’ll have to use these tools.”
    A special emergency economic committee headed by Defense Minister Ehud Barak was to convene after the cabinet session. The ministries’ directors-general and other officials will discuss maintaining civilian life under attack.
    Monday the government’s emergency headquarters will discuss coordination measures. Defense officials said the Turning Point series of exercises was designed to implement lessons learned from Israel’s 2006 war with Hezbollah, when the Lebanese militia fired nearly 4,000 Katyusha rockets across the border at Israel.
    The exercise will be conducted by the home front commander, Maj. Gen. Yair Golan, and the head of the Defense Ministry’s National Emergency Authority, Brig. Gen. (ret.) Ze’ev Tzuk-Ram.
    At 11 A.M. on Tuesday, after a siren goes off nationwide, the public will be asked to enter protected spaces and shelters at home, work and schools. The local authorities will operate emergency headquarters and work according to scenarios set in advance.
    A special siren will be operated in ultra-Orthodox communities, and notices on billboards will tell people what to do once the siren goes off. Tuesday and Wednesday will see various scenarios exercised in a number of municipalities. In Haifa, for example, rescue services will practice freeing people after a missile strike. Emergency services will operate in keeping with the lessons learned during the Second Lebanon War.
    In Kiryat Gat in the south, Home Front Command rescue teams will practice freeing people trapped in the ruins of a building. In Rehovot, participants will respond to a simulated missile strike on a key factory. The municipality and emergency services in Rishon Letzion will practice evacuating people to underground parking lots, and Netanya will be divided into sectors for emergency volunteers to operate in.
    On Thursday the police will practice rescuing people trapped in high-rise buildings. Last week the regional councils rescinded their threat not to take part in the drill following the Defense Ministry’s consent to give them a special budget for defense services in border communities.
    Some 70 foreign officials and military representatives from countries including the United States, Turkey, Japan, France and Germany are expected to observe the drill. The defense authorities will then hold a symposium with the foreign delegates.
    Barak told Army Radio last week that the drill is a “routine” procedure. Some observers see this as an attempt to relieve concerns in Arab countries that Israel may use the drill to mask preparations to attack.
    “[Such a drill] takes place every year. It took place last year and two years ago,” Barak said. He added that unlike a drill by an infantry brigade, “in which there is no need to involve the nation, in a home front drill there is no choice but to involve the entire public.”


June 1, 2009 Posted by | EndTimes, GeoPolitics | , | Comments Off on Israel Holds Biggest Civil Defense Drill In State History

Some Loan Redefault Rates May Reach 75%

  • I am for helping the poor get housing. But the US government does not have a good record of doing this. Corruption is endemic in their system. The Wall Street Journal comments :
    A central tenet of Washington economic policy for the past three years has been that the key to ending the recession is stopping mortgage foreclosures, whatever the cost. Well, another new study shows that mortgage-servicing companies are having a terrible time of it, not least because the mortgages are continuing to sour at a rate nearly as fast as they can be modified.
    Yesterday’s Journal reports that Fitch Ratings looked at mortgages bundled into securities between 2005 and 2007 and managed by some 30 mortgage companies. Fitch found that a conservative projection was that between 65% and 75% of modified subprime loans will fall delinquent by 60 days or more within 12 months of having been modified to keep the borrowers in their homes. This is an even worse result than previous reports by federal regulators. Even loans whose principal was reduced by as much as 20% were still redefaulting in a range of 30% to 40% after 12 months.
    The reasons for the high redefault rate aren’t surprising. Many of the borrowers never could afford these homes in the first place, yet the political pressure has been strong to modify loans even for these borrowers. As home prices continue to fall in some markets, borrowers remain underwater and many of them simply walk away from the home and thus redefault.
    This study has to come as a blow to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which has invested a great deal of political capital in the modification thesis. It also means that to the extent that public money has guaranteed any of these loan modifications, the taxpayer will be an even bigger loser. Banks don’t like to foreclose on borrowers, so the best public policy was always voluntary renegotiation. As for the housing market, the quickest way to begin a recovery is to more quickly let prices find a bottom. On the evidence so far, the mortgage modification fervor has been a giant political exercise with little impact on housing prices.


June 1, 2009 Posted by | Economics | | 1 Comment

Ron Paul on North Korea

June 1, 2009 Posted by | GeoPolitics | | Comments Off on Ron Paul on North Korea