Socio-Economics History Blog

Socio-Economics & History Commentary

European Banks may need US$ 23 Trillion Bailout !

end

February 12, 2009 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , | 3 Comments

China Imports & Exports Plunged (Jan 09)!

  • Jan 2009 trade figures for China show calamitous decline in imports and exports. China manufacturing is still shrinking. Can China maintain growth at 8% ? It is doubtful that they can even achieve 5-6% growth for 2009. China is too reliant on exports for growth.
     
  • Bloomberg reports in China’s Imports, Exports Plunge on Global Recession :
      
    Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) — China’s exports fell by the most in almost 13 years as demand dried up in the U.S. and Europe and imports plunged by a record, signaling a deepening slump in the world’s third-biggest economy.
     
    Outbound shipments declined 17.5 percent in January from a year earlier and imports fell 43.1 percent, the customs bureau said on its Web site today. Both numbers were worse than economists’ forecasts.
     
    The $39.1 billion
    trade surplus, the second biggest on record, may add to international tensions as global leaders warn of the risk of protectionism amid the worst financial crisis since World War II. China’s economic growth is likely to cool to 6.1 percent this quarter, the least since 1999, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The slowdown has cost 20 million jobs and increased the risk of falling prices, profits and consumption. 
      …..
    Exports to the European Union, China’s biggest market, fell 17.4 percent. Those to the U.S. slid 9.8 percent. Shipments of machinery and electronics dropped 21 percent. Steel slid 32.5 percent and toys declined 14.7 percent.
     
    The trade slump was likely exacerbated by a week-long Lunar New Year holiday, which occurred in January this year and February last year.
     
    China’s economy grew 6.8 percent from a year earlier in the fourth quarter, the weakest pace since 2001. Producer prices fell the most in almost seven years in January, data released yesterday showed.
     
    The trade collapse adds pressure on the government to expand a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package as factories close and millions of migrant workers return to the countryside, adding to the risk of social unrest. 

     
  • China is under increasing economic pressure. More than 20 million jobs have been lost (some estimate it at 26 million jobs). Unless they bring growth back above 8%, there will not be sufficient new jobs to replace those lost. Social unrest, riots and violence will go up.
     
  • For the rest of Asia, the collapse of China imports is alarming. Asia is relying increasingly on China for growth. With imports collapsing 43.1%, the rest of Asia will go into a depression.

end

February 12, 2009 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Gerald Celente – Worst Economic Collapse Ever !

end

February 12, 2009 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Gerald Celente – Worst Economic Collapse Ever !