Socio-Economics History Blog

Socio-Economics & History Commentary

GEAB N°88: Global Systemic Crisis – 2015 – The World is Defecting to the East !

Chart 1: China GDP (in blue) and US GDP (in red) in purchasing power parity (PPP) in $trillions, 2002 – 2090 - Source: Financial Times

Chart 1: China GDP (in blue) and US GDP (in red) in purchasing power parity (PPP) in $trillions, 2002 – 2090 – Source: Financial Times

  • GEAB N°88 is available! Global systemic crisis – 2015: The world is defecting to the East! 
    by http://www.leap2020.eu/English_r25.html 
    Two important facts emerge from the past four weeks’ news. First, China is becoming the world’s largest economic power, officially overtaking the US, based on GDP measured in purchasing power terms (IMF figures) of $17.61 trillion (compared to $17.4 trillion for the US). If the official media hasn’t raised the slightest eyebrow to this information, our team believes that it’s an historic event: the US is no longer the world’s largest economic power and, inevitably, that changes everything ! (1)     
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    Especially as, in addition to crossing this threshold, the US, after having tried to impress the world with an overflowing militarism during the Ukrainian crisis, is revealing a major strategic weakness in its “management” of the Iraqi crisis. A strong-arm policy which seemed to require the world to remain under US tutelage for an as yet undefined time is coming to an end.
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    Both these two indicators enable us to see the beginnings of a major turning point in the unfolding of the global systemic crisis: a tilt from a US world to a Chinese world…
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    Europe, Russia – Setting up a Chinese-style Marshall plan
    This obvious emergence of the Chinese player was precipitated by the Ukrainian crisis. Whilst it was in China’s interest to develop its emergence from under the radar, whilst the Russians kept their distance from an inevitably invasive China, whilst the Europeans also had to maintain the conditions for a smooth emergence of this mega-player, the Ukrainian crisis accelerated the change and caused the players to partly lose out.
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    We have already noted that the Ukrainian crisis and the political sanctions pushed the Russians to sign the famous Russian-Chinese gas agreement on less advantageous terms than they had hoped. The Ukraine has lost out to the Russians in their negotiations with China on this agreement.
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    Currently, the Chinese Prime Minister is on an official visit to Europe and Russia (3). His pockets are full of contracts, investment projects and business prospects (4), a real Marshall plan for the European and Russian economies’ reconstruction partially destroyed by the Ukrainian war (5)… an irresistible plan of course. But are the conditions met for us to be careful enough to preserve our independence as regards this new power? Remember that the Marshall plan helped bind post-war Europe to the US.
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    The City has already been saved from bankruptcy by China making it the leading financial centre outside China for issuing Yuan bonds (6) Accordingly, the UK has become a strong proponent of adding the Yuan to IMF SDRs. The ECB is even beginning to consider adding the Yuan to its international reserves (7) And Europe finds itself playing the role which behooves it as the facilitator of systemic transition between a world before and a world after the crisis; but to play it in its own enhanced interest, it would have been better to have been driven by a vision (8) rather than greed or survival reflex.
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October 18, 2014 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Why Is the Put-Call Ratio (Fear Gauge) Higher Than in the Lehman Collapse of 2008?

Storm Hurricane_Sandy_threatening_NewYork_Oct2012- storm

  • Why Is the Put-Call Ratio (Fear Gauge) Higher Than in the Lehman Collapse of 2008? 
    by Charles Hugh Smith, http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html , 14 Oct 2014 
    The rising fear may reflect a shift in sentiment from faith in the omnipotence of central banks to skepticism.
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    By at least one well-known measure of sentiment, the level of fear in the stock market now exceeds the fear triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Lehman declared bankruptcy on September 15, 2008, unleashing a cascade that soon threatened to take down the entire global financial system.

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    There is no comparable event–or level of fear–other than the Great Crash of 1929. Thus it is extraordinary that yesterday’s CBOE put-call ratio of 1.53 exceeded the put-call ratios of the 2008 global financial meltdown, which topped at 1.52.
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    What is the put-call ratio? Here is the standard definition: The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s (CBOE) put/call ratio (or put–call ratio, PCR) is a technical indicator that reflects investors’ sentiment. The ratio represents a proportion between all the put options and all the call options purchased on any given day.
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    Puts are options that increase in value as stocks decline. Calls are options that increase in value as stocks rise. So if punters reckon the market will fall, they buy more puts (bets the market will drop) than calls (bets the market will rise).

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October 17, 2014 Posted by | Economics | , , , , | Leave a comment

Is The Ebola Crisis The October Surprise?

  • Published on Oct 16, 2014
    Get economic collapse news throughout the day visit http://x22report.com

    More news visit http://thepeoplesnewz.com
    Report date: 10.16.2014
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    Italy and France are looking for economic opportunities to get out of debt. Home builder sentiment is declining. Foreclosures picking up in 10 states. FED looking to continue QE. Ebola workers did not wear protective closing with Thomas Duncan. CDC confused in protocols, information and Ebola. FEMA conducting pandemic drills in 2013-2014. Russia will reduce gas supplies to Europe if Ukraine siphons gas. Gulf states are putting together a navy to counter Iran. Russia will not cooperate with U.S. on the Islamic State unless UN approves the coalition. FBI now warning Chinese are getting ready to cyber attack the U.S.

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October 17, 2014 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Medicine & Health, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

BIS Warns on ‘Violent’ Reversal of Global Markets!

Shit_Storm

  • The BIS is an Illuminist privately owned bank. The BIS, the central bank of central banks, is warning about a problem caused by the central banks themselves. Once again, the people who caused the problem is posing as saviors!
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  • BIS warns on ‘violent’ reversal of global markets! 
    by , http://www.telegraph.co.uk/ 
    Investors take zero-rates for granted and unwisely believe that central banks will protect them, says the capital markets chief of the Bank of International Settlements.
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    The global financial markets are dangerously stretched and may unwind with shock force as liquidity dries up, the Bank of International Settlements has warned.
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    Guy Debelle, head of the BIS’s market committee, said investors have become far too complacent, wrongly believing that central banks can protect them, many staking bets that are bound to “blow up” as the first sign of stress.
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    In a speech in Sydney, Mr Debelle said: “The sell-off, particularly in fixed income, could be relatively violent when it comes. There are a number of investors buying assets on the presumption of a level of liquidity which is not there. This is not evident when positions are being put on, but will become readily apparent when investors attempt to exit their positions.
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    “The exits tend to get jammed unexpectedly and rapidly.”
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    Mr Debelle, who is also chief of financial markets at Australia’s Reserve Bank, said any sell-off could be amplified because nominal interest rates are already zero across most of the industrial world. “That is a point we haven’t started from before. There are undoubtedly positions out there which are dependent on (close to) zero funding costs. When funding costs are no longer close to zero, these positions will blow up,” he said.
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October 16, 2014 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

John Williams: We’re Coming to the End Game! Reality of No Economic Recovery Means Collapse!

  • Reality of No Economic Recovery Means Collapse-John Williams! 
    by Greg hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 
    Economist John Williams is sticking by his assessment that the economy is in deep trouble.  Williams says, “What we are seeing is a very big fiction by the financial media and the political media that the economy has recovered.  The economy has not recovered. . . . We are seeing all sorts of things that indicate the economy is not recovering and never has recovered, and it is turning down again.”
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    On the recent wild gyrations of the stock market, Williams says, “I can’t give you good reason for why the stock market is as high as it is.  The fact you are seeing this volatility means there are a lot of people who are very nervous about what is going on and where things are in the market.  It is probably one of the great bubbles of all time.  It most likely will collapse along the lines of the U.S. dollar in response to the reality of no economic recovery. . . . I can’t think of a more vulnerable market than what we are seeing here.”
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    On the dollar, Williams says, “The big factor here is the U.S. dollar and all sorts of things that impact that.  The economy is probably the biggest.  You also have the Fed policy.  Right now, there is the presumption that the easing is over and they are going to raise interest rates.  Guess what?  If the stock market continues going as it is and the economy starts turning down, I think the Fed is going back to easing (money printing) again.  They will use the economy as cover for its actions in trying to prop up the stock market and trying to prop up the banking system.  The Fed’s primary function in life is to prop up the banking system.  A weak economy is not good for the banking system.  The economy is a sideline for it, and there is very little it can do, but it can use the weak economy as political cover for flooding the system with liquidity and keep the banking system afloat.”  Williams goes on to say, “Any pull-back from the ‘taper,’ any shift in expectation, the Fed is going to have a QE 4, will tend to hit the dollar very hard.  Along with that, a spike in gold prices and we’re off and running. . . . You are getting a confluence of extraordinary factors that are coming together that will cause the dollar to break. 
    You’ll have a panic flight from the dollar along with dumping of U.S. Treasury bonds by foreign owners.  We are coming in on the end game here.”
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October 15, 2014 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Joel Skousen: Ebola Could Be A Preliminary To A Real Pandemic!

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October 15, 2014 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Collapse Is Coming…What Will Take the Blame?

US_Economic_Collapse

  • Collapse Is Coming…What Will Take the Blame? 
    by Bill Holter, http://blog.milesfranklin.com/ 
    Very interesting times we now live in, the financial system is running out of options very quickly and “blowing up the world” seems to be the only final option.  I know, this sounds grandiose and dire but let me explain.
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    This past week we finally saw some very big volatility in global stock markets.  I say “finally” because it has been almost 3 years of a steady grind upward where all drops were “aborted” and volatility kept to a minimum.  This changed … “something” has changed.  We are now red for the year in the closely followed Dow Jones and actually approaching “bear market” territory on the Russell 2000.  European bourses have also been very weak and took out some important support levels this past week.
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    So what has changed?  First, the dollar has had a spike upwards in its biggest rally in 4 years.  I believe this to be a result of the Fed “only” printing an extra $10 billion (soon to be zero?) per month versus the previous $85 billion per month.  This “lack of extra liquidity” has affected the dollar market (I believe short term) and also upset the leverage in the stock market. On a side note, one of Apple’s suppliers went into a “secret bankruptcy” this past week and the reason for this bankruptcy has been “sealed” by the court.  How can this be?  Apple is doing great so why would a supplier have a problem?  Could it be that this supplier was on the wrong end of some sort of hedge or derivative?  I think you can bank on this as the explanation, little else fits AND could be swept under the rug so neatly!
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    Volatility and stress is back and now being felt and seen plainly in Europe.  The euro as an inverse to the dollar has been quite weak.  In what would have been “heresy” 10 or more years ago, the calls for a very real and very large “QE” are being heard throughout Europe.  RBS and Bank of America were quoted in The Telegraph titled, Dam breaks in Europe as deflation fears wash over ECB rhetoric – Telegraph that deflation is taking over Europe.  This very well may be but the flip side of the coin are all the sovereign nations where (understated) debt is at or above the banana republic threshold of 100% debt to GDP ratio.  You can now see it as clear as day, “inflate or die” and in either case there unfortunately will be no middle ground.
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October 14, 2014 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

James Rickards: Next Crash Exponentially Larger than Any Financial Panic in History!

  • James Rickards-Next Crash Exponentially Larger than Any Financial Panic in History! 
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com   (Early Sunday Release) 
    Best-selling author and financial expert James Rickards contends a big financial crash is locked in.  Rickards says, “Everyone is waiting for some blunder down the road, and the point I try to make is the blunders have already been made.  The blunders have already been built into the system.  You can see this collapse coming a mile away. . . . Using science, we can’t say very much about the timing, but we can say a lot about the magnitude.  This will be the greatest financial collapse in history.  I am quite sure about that, but I am not sure about the timing. . . . People think I can call them up at 3 o’clock in the afternoon and tell them tomorrow’s that day, sell your stocks and buy some gold. I can’t do that. I don’t know what day it will be.  If we get to that point, it would be too late to act.  So, the time to act is now.” Rickards goes on to say, “On top of the threats from Ebola, the Islamic State, the normal currency wars and the normal depression the world is in, there is financial war going on right now.  We put sanctions on Russia.  Do you think Russia is going to sit there and take it?  Russia is responding asymmetrically through cyber warfare.”
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    Rickards says in the coming crash, it is going to be very difficult to turn your assets into spendable cash.  Rickards explains, “People think everything is money.  People think your stocks are money because you can sell them and get the cash in your account in a couple of days.  People think your money market funds are money because you can call your broker and get the cash in your bank account tomorrow.  You think your house is money because you can take a second mortgage or sell your house.  What you find out in a panic is all those things are not money.  You are locked in, locked down and the only thing that is money is money.  That would be cash, if you happen to have it or gold or silver in physical form, not paper gold.  So, people don’t understand what money really is until everyone wants their money back.  That’s when you find out only a small number of things are actually money.”
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October 14, 2014 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Manic-Buying Turns To Panic-Selling As ‘Illiquid’ Stocks Plunge To 5-Month Lows!

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  • Manic-Buying Turns To Panic-Selling As ‘Illiquid’ Stocks Plunge To 5-Month Lows! 
    by Tyler Durden, http://www.zerohedge.com
    Just as we warned, liquidity was incomprehensibly low today (below normal pre-market levels during the peak of the trading day) and the intraday whipsaws were meteoric as a closed cash bond market enabled the slightest twitch in USDJPY to send S&P algos into conniptions. Biotech crashed. Trannies were ripped ridiculously higher at the open – then collapsed into correction (-11% from highs); US Airlines have fallen for 6 straight days, crashing 17% (with today’s 7% plunge – driven by chatter over airborne Ebola – its biggest in over years). Tresury futures implied a notable drop in yields across the curve (10Y -7bps at 2.21%, 30Y 2.97%, and 5Y 1.45%). The USdollar closed -0.33% led by EUR and JPY strength (but AUD surged 1% extending gains after China data).  Gold ($1234), Silver, and copper all gained on the day as WTI fell once again (despite some intraday strength in the middle of the day). Stocks “flash-crashed” on very heavy volume in the last 30 mins with VIX breaking above 24 (highest in 16 months). All major equity indices are now below their 200DMA with the worst 3-day loss since late 2011.
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October 14, 2014 Posted by | Economics | , , , , | Leave a comment

Dr. Jim Willie: China Will Use Gold and Gold Pricing to Force Global Currency Reset!

  • China will use gold and gold pricing to force global currency reset! 
    by Kenneth Schortgen Jr, http://www.examiner.com/ 
    On Sept. 30, statistician and economist Dr. Jim Willie was a guest on the Caravan to Midnight radio show to talk about current financial, economic, and geo-political events. During his three hour interview, Dr. Willie stated that one of the purposes behind China‘s creation of the new Shanghai gold exchange is to eventually take over global price controls for the monetary metal away from the Comex, and then force a global currency reset by raising the price of gold to its true or actual value.
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    The way this will come about in the near future according to Dr. Willie, is that China will re-price gold to near or above twice the current price, which will have a devastating effect on derivatives and ongoing use of the Comex futures market to suppress gold prices, and protect the dollar. And based upon supply details for the Comex over the past two years, America’s primary gold exchange no longer settles their contracts through the delivery of physical gold, but instead settles in cash payments or through the hedging of gold using derivatives. Subsequently, once this failure to deliver takes place, then China, through the Shanghai gold exchange, will become the default market for price discovery, and at that point will re-adjust gold to its true value, instantly causing massive chaos in the fiat currency markets and leaving the world little alternative but to implement a complete currency reset.
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October 13, 2014 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Dr. Jim Willie: “They Know The Chaos Is Coming”!

  • Dr. Jim Willie: “They Know The Chaos Is Coming”! 
    by Live Free or Die and Susan Duclos, http://www.allnewspipeline.com/ 
    Dr. Jim Willie joined Live Free or Die and I for an exclusive interview, in which Dr. Willie warns us of a planned launch of a ‘new dollar’ that will be ‘blood red’, the extreme wreckage of our current financial system brought on by the ‘satanic’ banking cabal, the chaos coming to America in 3 separate areas and much more.
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    The West, meaning London, NY and western Europe will lose control and we are going to see the dollar rise, rise more…. then “die suddenly.” Dr. Willie also talks about the collapse of financial instruments, how the west is lowering the price of oil to “damage Russia,” how the Ukraine war comes into play, and how ultimately China will double gold prices and triple silver prices.
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    At approximately the 21 minute mark, Dr. Willie addresses what all this will mean to the average American, describing how pensions will be affected, those living off of any welfare program will see their benefits cut in half, food and gas shortages, lack of cash at ATMs, as well as how police across America have been militarized in preparation for the fallout because “they know the chaos is coming.”
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    He explains how the gradual growing global rejection of the USDollar for trade will alter the banking systems, force the Fed into a huge volume increase in their bond purchase program to cover what foreign nations discard and diversify from USTreasurys. The end result will be refusal by foreign suppliers to accept over-valued USDollars in exchange for both finished goods and raw materials, even crude oil. The US import supply chain is soon to be threatened. Thus the motive and pressure will be fierce to create a new domestic dollar, the birth of the New Scheiss Dollar, which will suffer a series of devaluations.
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    The show is jam packed with information and is a must see in order to understand what is coming, how we got here and where we are going.
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    Dr. Jim Willie is Editor of Hat Trick Letter and Founder of GoldenJackass.com 

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October 11, 2014 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Jim Willie: The Economic ENDGAME Has Arrived ! Economic Collapse, Gold & Silver Revaluation, HAARP Weather Warfare …

  • “… I am not looking forward to the consequence of the new Scheisse (German for shit) dollar. It’s gonna have its Satanic symbols to be sure. Just like the one dollar bill has. The pyramid with the eye is a Masonic Satanist symbol. There are more symbols in there like the 13 bricks … of the 13 Houses of Masons. They like to get their symbols in front of your faces and tell you that they don’t mean anything while they smile with each other. We’ve got Satanism laced with the entire US government and banking system and energy industry! …” - Quote 49:15 onwards
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  • Published on Oct 9, 2014
    IN THIS INTERVIEW:

    - The U.S. dollar is dying ►0:55
    - ZIRP and QE to infinity is inevitable ►5:04
    - Fed “taper” is a lie ►9:12
    - Systemic failure ahead ►14:37
    - Logical conclusion: rejection of U.S. dollar ►18:23
    - How would a “Gold Trade Standard” impact the global banking system? ►22:11
    - Why did gold and silver prices fall in the last couple weeks? ►39:44 
The Satanic capstone, the Anti-Christ, on your dollar bill !

The Satanic capstone, the Anti-Christ, on your dollar bill !

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October 10, 2014 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Federal Government Is Setting Us Up For Total Global Takeover!

October 10, 2014 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Jim Willie: Key Fracture Points that Will Break EU & Collapse the Dollar!

October 9, 2014 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Charles Nenner: Big Nuclear War Coming!

  • Charles Nenner: Big Nuclear War Coming! 
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 
    Legendary financial analyst Charles Nenner thinks the biggest threat is global war.  Nenner explains, “If you look at a war cycle of a hundred years, I predicted in the second decade of this century that we were going to have a big war.  If you go back a hundred years ago, you had the First World War, which led up to the Second World War.  That was a big war.  A hundred years before that, we had a big war in 1812, and you had Napoleon in Europe in 1814. . . . Every second decade of a new century, you have a big war.  So, what keeps me up at night is the underestimation that we are going to have a big war. . . . The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were too small to show up.  So, this war has to be much bigger.  The 100 year war cycle exists, and it’s an amazing cycle.  It shows you how regular they are.”
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    But this war cycle will be different because nuclear weapons will be used for the first time in the 100 year war cycle.  Nenner contends, “You have a stock market cycle and you have price and time.  Here, you have time and the amount of casualties, and in every big war, the casualties go up exponentially.  So, you can imagine what can happen . . . anything can happen.”
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    On the global economy, Nenner, who is also an economist, says, “We should have a nice quarter until the end of the year, and next year, we should start weakening again.  We had a normal business up move.  The problem is the GDP never got up much above 3%.  So, now we are going down from 3%, and that is kind of scary because I still see a lot of deflation on the horizon.  That is something that is going to be very difficult to fix.”  Deflation is debt destruction, and Nenner goes on to say, “It’s the destruction of almost everything.  The problem is we owe so much money, and you can only get out of debt by inflating.  Deflation will only make it worse.  So, I have no clue how we are going to get out of trouble.”  Nenner goes on to say, “You are going to get into a downward spiral, which is very hard to get out of.”

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http://www.globalresearch.ca/obama-prepares-to-wage-offensive-first-strike-strategic-nuclear-warfare-against-russia-china-iran-north-korea-and-syria/5340299

Click on image for article!

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/506370.html

Click on image for article!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2484334/China-boasts-new-submarine-fleet-capable-launching-nuclear-warheads-cities-United-States.html

Click on image for article!

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October 9, 2014 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

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