Socio-Economics History Blog

Socio-Economics & History Commentary

Mark Grant On Greece: “There Is No Deal Here”!

  • Mark Grant On Greece: “There Is No Deal Here” !
    by Mark Grant, via http://www.zerohedge.com/ 
    There is no deal here. There is a fantasy of projections and some wishful thinking but no deal. There is not even an agreement on disbursement as codified in the last paragraph of the statement (here). The odds on Greece reaching a primary surplus in the next several years are about 1 degree off of Kelvin’s Absolute Zero [the market seems to agree]
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    The deferral of interest payments and the extension of the loans have some meaning but are nowhere close to bridging the deficit gap. All of this of course has to go back to the nations’ Parliaments and it may not be as readily accepted as some hope.
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    There is not even a definitive agreement yet to give Greece more money.
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    The debt buy-back (as we discussed here) is governed under British law and while they are once again going after the private sector bondholders there is no CAC to enforce any action though there is the obvious falsification of prior claims that “it will never happen again.”
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    What we have here are more promises, a concocted ruse and an agreement on a concept that is actually no deal at all.
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    I would also say that Mr. Draghi lost a good deal of credibility tonight touting this statement as an agreement that would “reduce uncertainty.”
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    read more!

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November 28, 2012 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Euro Existential Crisis: ‘Greece Governed in Third World Fashion’!

November 27, 2012 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Chart of the Day: US Per Capita Debt Now 35% Higher Than Greece!

  • Chart of the Day: US Per Capita Debt Now 35% Higher Than Greece! 
    by http://www.silverdoctors.com/ 
    For over a year we have maintained here at SD that as the gov’t debt crisis accelerates and reaches the end game, the PIIGS will become F UK US PIIGSas France, the UK, and finally the US reach a solvency/ debt crisis on the same stage currently experienced by the southern European nations such as Greece.
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    Today’s Chart of the Day vividly drives this point home, as US per person debt is now an astonishing $53,378- a full 35% higher than that of Greece.

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November 15, 2012 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Global Gold Production Is Poised To Fall Off A Cliff !

  • Global Gold Production Is Poised To Fall Off A Cliff! 
    by www.kingworldnews.com
    Today a legend in the business surprised King World News when he warned that “… global gold production is poised to fall off a cliff.”  Keith Barron, who consults with major gold companies around the world and is responsible for one of the largest gold discoveries in the last quarter century, also spoke about the tragic events which are taking place in Europe.
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    Here is what Barron had to say:  “It was just announced that the creditors for Greece had gotten together and decided they are not going to impose the severe austerity they had been talking about.  The European Central Bank is aware that Greece has a shortfall between now and 2016 of 32 billion euros.  They have no idea where Greece is going to find it.”
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    The ECB better not try to get it from Germany because Germany is going to balk.  Last week the Greek Parliament adopted new austerity measures, and we saw lots of Molotov cocktails being tossed at the Parliament buildings by students, unemployed, and others who were protesting.  This took place on the evening of the announcements. Greece is on the verge of a total breakdown….
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    read more!

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November 15, 2012 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Nigel Farage: This Is My Single Greatest Fear!

Greece social unrest. Photograph: Louisa Gouliamaki/AFP/Getty Images

  • Nigel Farage – This Is My Single Greatest Fear! 
    by www.kingworldnews.com
    Today Nigel Farage spoke with King World News about his single greatest fear.  Farage, MEP (Member European Parliament), also spoke with King World News about the ongoing chaos which is taking place in Europe.  But first, here is what Farage had to say about the increasing unrest in the eurozone:  “Strikes, strikes, strikes.  Lots and lots of strikes and demonstrations.  Big strikes today, all across the Mediterranean, but they are now beginning to permeate northwards.  In fact, there has been a very major strike in Belgium today.”
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    “I was actually due to go to the European Parliament today but couldn’t get there.  No planes, no trains.  Ostensibly the strikes are about protests to government austerity.  Strikes are now becoming an almost everyday feature of life in Europe. If people haven’t got hope, through their own directly elected representatives, then all they can do is take to the streets in increasing numbers, and these aren’t peaceful strikes….
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    read more!

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November 15, 2012 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

This Is A Moment In Time That’s Never Been Seen Before!

  • This Is A Moment In Time That’s Never Been Seen Before! 
    by www.kingworldnews.com
    Today Bill Fleckenstein told King World News, “… the world is starting to realize that this is a moment in time that’s never been seen before.”  Fleckenstein, who is President of Fleckenstein Capital, discussed Europe, the US, gold, and the danger the world is facing today.
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    Here is what Fleckenstein had to say:  “Greece is a serial bailout, restructuring, can-kick, and I guess this is going to continue as long as the riots don’t get worse.  Maybe eventually Greece will get ejected from the euro.  The question (in Europe) is, is Draghi going to get serious about the OMT or not?”
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    “My suspicion is he is going to.  They are going to use the central bank there to make sure the euro doesn’t fracture, in the same way Greenspan and Bernanke have used the printing press to make sure that the United States financial markets don’t collapse. I suspect Europe will muddle through as long as Draghi is willing to keep buying the government debt and keep the whole process moving….
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    read more!

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November 14, 2012 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Mark Grant: Living In ‘The Day Before’ Global Calamity Strikes!

Global economic and geo-political storm is coming!

  • Living In ‘The Day Before’! 
    by Mark J. Grant author of Out of the Box, via http://www.zerohedge.com/ 
    The Day Before
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    March 15, 44 BC             Julies Caesar was assassinated

    - December 25, 4 BC        Jesus Christ was born
    - 476 AD                             Augustulus deposed ending 505 years of the Roman Empire
    - July 16, 622                     Mohammed began writing the Koran
    - December 25, 800         Charlemagne crowned “Emperor of the Romans” by the Pope
    - October 14, 1066            William of Normandy defeated the English
    …..
    In each of these instances, at each of these critical moments in time, there was a “day before.” The “day before” was just another normal day, time running its course, twenty-four hours where people may have known that something was up but supposed nothing would change. Markets, you see, always live in this “day before” where the bend in the highway never comes, where the path is always straight and fixed and where it is generally thought that nothing of consequence will happen. Then some event takes place, something magical or wonderful or awful occurs and the world is turned on its axis and nothing is ever the same again.
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    The lead time for many of these moments in history is often long and could have been prepared for but, people being what they are, we tire of the wait and the markets continue to operate on the assumption that this “day before” will always be in effect right up until the moment when it is not. You see; the “day before” is transmuted by Time and what was becomes what is and that could be something very different than our last turn around the sun and to not be prepared is a disservice to your own position and to the capital of your clients.

    ….
    The Looking Glass
    Women are much better at it than men but we all need to stand and stare into the mirror and take a very hard look at what is staring back. An honest reappraisal is imperative now! Syria fires on Israel, Israel fires back and Iran looms like the grey robed man with a scythe. War in the Middle East is an outlier no longer.
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    Greece has risen from its recent obscurity, a Phoenix from the fire but, unlike the mythological bird re-born, this Greece is covered in fire, soot and dirt and Hercules himself could not make their debt sustainable.  The IMF may not fund and Europe promises, promises, promises and delivers nothing, no one wants to take any losses when losses must be taken and so Greece has become a dead man walking.
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    Greece promises, Europe promises, platitudes are delivered like meat on a platter at a steakhouse and the silver cover is swept away and, low and behold, there is nothing there. Debt extensions, the lowering of interest rates, the buy-back of Greek debt in the open market and all of the other slivers of even more promises will not solve the problem, cannot solve the problem as the numbers have overtaken any relatively painless solutions. The figures will not add up without debt forgiveness, significantly more money or default. “Where’s the beef” is soon to be found or not found in the European Parliaments as the IMF rejects any new methodology for counting the coins in the vault. Breakpoint; we are at Breakpoint.
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    The United States is staring into a fiscal abyss affecting 4.52% of our GDP and the priorities of the Republicans and the Democrats are as opposite as they have been in my lifetime. Perhaps there will be a compromise but maybe not and the risks enlarge with the passing of the days. Forget gloom, doom, optimism or muddle; the reality is that huge, giant risks are at hand and that you have no control over them and that in the Middle East, in Europe, in America that things could swing wildly out of control and that we do not face one cliff but jagged edges on three sides where Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece could cause an avalanche while another may occur in the United States and a third could come rolling out of the sands of the desert countries.
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    I am not talking of betting this morning but of preservation and, in my humble opinion, only a fool would fail to see the risks at hand and take precautions. We are in danger, “clear and present danger” and the strategy of the “day before” is no longer appropriate. I can also tell you that the scent of Fear is picking up as the calls to the Wizard increase and as many institutions begin to assume “fall back positions” that are not only reasonable but mandated out of necessity by our present circumstances. Take note, $400 billion has poured into bond funds this year, an all-time record, with yields at depressed levels indicating a quite real flight to safety. The United States lost thirty-six percent of its wealth during the American Financial Crisis and, people or institutions, the song rolls across the landscape, “We won’t get fooled again!”

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November 14, 2012 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Greece Back on the Brink, IEA Projects US Oil Bonanza and Betting on a Grand Fiscal Bargain!

November 13, 2012 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

What’s Left To Cut? ‘Greece Sacrifice on Euro Altar’!

November 13, 2012 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Greece Faces Civil War If It Can’t Face Bankruptcy!

November 9, 2012 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Europe’s Scariest Chart Hits Peak Scariness Levels, And Rising!

Data: Bloomberg and Greek Statistics Office

  • Europe’s Scariest Chart Hits Peak Scariness Levels, And Rising! 
    by Tyler Durden, http://www.zerohedge.com/ 
    Things are rather unsurprisingly going from worse to worserer in Europe. Perhaps it is the anecdotal evidence we see in the now weekly riot-cams from Spain and Greece but just as we warned over a year ago, the truly scariest chart in Europe remains that of youth unemployment. The correlation (and causation) that runs from extreme levels of youth unemployment to general social unrest and anarchy is stunning throughout time (as we noted here and here). With Greek ‘youth’ unemployment jumping to a disheartening 58% (for August) – by far its highest ever – and Spain rising inexorably at 54.2%, the under-25 populations in these nations is truly set to burst (with overall unemployment rates of 25.4% and 25.5% respectively). Euro-zone youth unemployment overall has risen to 23.3% and while Greece jumped the most, Italy was close behind with a 1.2ppt rise to 35.1%. We are sure the austerity voted for last night by the politicians will ‘help’ – someone…

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November 9, 2012 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , | Comments Off

1 in 4 Greek Workers Unemployed as Joblessness Hits Record 25.4% !

  • 1 in 4 Greek workers unemployed as joblessness hits record 25.4%! 
    by http://rt.com/ 
    Greece’s unemployment rate reached a record high of 25.4 percent in August, with 1 in 4 of the country’s workers now jobless, the country’s statistics service reported. The figure is more than double the eurozone average of 11.5 percent for August.
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    ­The unemployment rate in Greece has increased by 0.6 percent points since July, when it recorded at 24.8 percent, ELSTAT reported on Thursday. The figure marked the 35th consecutive month of rising unemployment in Greece.
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    The report states that in August, 36.5 thousand Greeks lost their jobs, bringing total unemployment to 1.27 million. Young people are the group hardest hit by employment, with a 58 percent jobless rate for those between the ages of 15 and 24.
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    Greece is one of the European countries hardest hit by austerity measures and an ongoing recession. As a condition for receiving bailout loans from international creditors, several consecutive governing coalitions in Greece have imposed harsh spending cuts to curb budget deficits.
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    The Greek parliament voted to pass the latest austerity package Wednesday as thousands rallied in protest against further spending cuts. Riots broke out on news that the further belt-tightening measures had been approved.
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    At least 100 people were arrested as firebomb-throwing demonstrators clashed with riot police, who used tear gas and water cannons to quell the protests.

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November 9, 2012 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Austerity Arena: Video of Greek Protesters Fire Molotov Cocktails, Police Shoot Teargas!

November 8, 2012 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Greece Grinds to Halt Amid Mass Austerity Strike!

  • Greece grinds to halt amid mass austerity strike! 
    by http://rt.com/ 
    A far-reaching national strike against new austerity measures has left Greece paralyzed. Thousands marched in the streets of Athens Tuesday in protest against measures that unions say will sink the country’s already-flagging economy.
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    The 48-hour strikes have brought most of the country to a standstill, shutting down public transport, schools and air traffic control. Hospitals are also working with skeleton crews. Broadcasts and publications were halted until further notice as journalists joined the nationwide strike.
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    “About 10,000 people on Syntagma square right now. More arriving. All peaceful,” RT correspondent Peter Oliver wrote on Twitter.
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    The rally wrapped up peacefully. Police estimate up to 40,000 people joined in. However, the day was marred by a fire engine got attacked with Molotov cocktails in the Athens district of Exarchia, local media report. The engine was heading to put out a car in Exarchia, which had been set ablaze earlier.
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    Police cordoned off areas around government buildings in Athens in preparation for possible violence. Extra officers were also called for crowd control during the demonstrations.
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    The protests are expected to continue throughout the week, culminating on Wednesday to coincide with a parliamentary vote on the new austerity measures. The new round of budget cuts the Greek parliament will vote on Wednesday has enraged a population already exhausted by economic belt-tightening. Athens is currently debating measures that aim to allay bankruptcy through some $17 billion in cuts by 2016.
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    read more!

AFP Photo/Louisa Gouliamaki

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November 7, 2012 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Austerity Pill More Deadly Than Debt Disease for Greece!

November 7, 2012 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

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