Socio-Economics History Blog

Socio-Economics & History Commentary

We’re On Cusp Of A “Nuclear” Meltdown In The Credit Markets!

WW3 is near?

  • We’re On Cusp Of A “Nuclear” Meltdown In The Credit Markets! 
    by http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/ 
    The bond market is going to crash in way that no one thought possible .  -  A very well-connected Wall Street insider and a friend of  mine for over 20 years
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    I have been warning anyone who wants to listen to get out of the bond market.   We are being given point-blank warnings from the elitists.   Two more huge warning flares were sent up this morning.
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    The BIS – Bank for International Settlements, the Central Bank of global Central Banks (i.e. the Fed answers to the BIS) – warned in its latest annual report that global credit markets “are once again in risky territory:”
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    The BIS focused mainly on fresh accumulation of new corporate and sovereign debt by asset managers rather than banks and scratched its head about the coincidence of sub-par economic activity and record low default rates that in turn depress borrowing rates and credit spreads ever lower nearly everywhere.
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    “Asset managers” means the mutual bond funds you are invested in with your financial advisor or your 401k plan.  Get out of them.  Here’s the article link:   Scoping The New Subprime As Watchdogs Cry “Bubble.”
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    Ironically, a Portuguese bank, Banco Espirito Santo SA missed a bond payment and its bonds did a cliff-dive (source:  Zerohedge):
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    read more!

Spain_Espirito_Santo_2013_Bonds_collapse_20140709

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July 11, 2014 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Dollar Under Sustained Attack / Currency Wars to be Followed by World Wars!

  • Published on Jul 8, 2014
    Today in Brussels the French Finance Minister, Michel Sapin, will start a debate with his EU counterparts on how the European Union can reduce its dependency on the U.S. dollar. Should the discussion find traction it may contribute to the ongoing monumental shift in global monetary economics with the gradual decline of the dollar as the global reserve currency. Read full article

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07… 

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July 11, 2014 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Dr. Jim Willie: Systemic Breakdown of the US Economy and its Deadly Aftermath! (Part 2)

“A real big major split in Hollywood right now. It’s the Satanists versus the old line … And  you see it all over the place in performances by Madonna and Katy Perry and a few others and they have their Satanic symbols and the naïve public say ‘Oh isn’t that cute!’. … triangle with an eye on the wall .. ‘Isn’t that cute’ … They don’t even understand what these symbols are: Satanic symbols! We got one on the backside of the one dollar bill. … The bricks, the 13 bricks (layers of the pyramid) on the backside of the dollar bill … the 13 bricks signify the 13 families from the (Free)Masons and the Black Nobility. Black Nobility means: in Satan’s service. So many of the owners of the Federal Reserve are Satanists. Americans need to wake up!” – Quote from 36:55 onwards

  • Published on Jul 9, 2014
    In Part 2 of this interview, Dr. Jim Willie looks ahead at the fast developing events as the Systemic Failure of the US Economy gathers steam. The landscape of the Financial / Economic and Geopolitical world is fast changing and Dr. Willie’s insights into these issues is invaluable.
Who owns the world reserve currency, the dollar, the global monetary hegemony? Look at the Satanic capstone on your dollar bill. The Luciferian New World Order will be complete with the arrival of the Satanic capstone: the Anti-Christ, fake messiah, bringer of false peace, the white horseman of Revelation 6!

Who owns the world reserve currency, the dollar, the global monetary hegemony? Look at the Satanic capstone on your dollar bill. The Luciferian New World Order will be complete with the arrival of the Satanic capstone: the Anti-Christ, fake messiah, bringer of false peace, the white horseman of Revelation 6!

The Satanic capstone, the Anti-Christ, on your dollar bill !

The Satanic capstone, the Anti-Christ, on your dollar bill !

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July 10, 2014 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Is The FedRes Signaling When The Economic Collapse Will Occur?

  • Published on Jul 9, 2014
    Get economic collapse news throughout the day visit http://x22report.com

    More news visit http://thepeoplesnewz.com
    Report date: 7.09.2014
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    Paris wants to tax unused office space which they say would help the housing market. Portugal’s largest bank misses a bond payment. Consumer credit is declining, spending is declining, companies earnings are declining the collapse is approaching. FED signals an exit plan by October. It seems collapses always occur in October. More global firms are using the renminbi and yuan for trade. 1 in 3 people have a RFID implanted in their dental work and they don’t even know it. Big Banks want to declare cyber war. ISIL captures a so called chemical weapons facility even though Iraq has no WMD.

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July 10, 2014 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Central Bankers Now Provoking War Everywhere To Cover Up The Economic Collapse!

  • Published on Jul 8, 2014
    Get economic collapse news throughout the day visit http://x22report.com

    More news visit http://thepeoplesnewz.com
    Report date: 7.08.2014
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    UK manufacturing continues to decline. Small businesses are not seeing an improvement in the economy. The jobs numbers are falling but spending is declining, Walmart is concerned that the economy is not recovering. Obama asking for 3.8 billion for the illegal immigrant problem that the administration caused. US kidnaps Russian MP, might be used to trade with Edward Snowden. Ukraine waging full out war on the Ukrainian people and the central bankers/US government approve of this action. ISIS threatening all embassies around the world. Back in May the US state department sent explosives to embassies across the world. The US has a plan for civil unrest in the United States. Be prepared for a false flag event.

bankster_war_debt_creation_financing_both_sides

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James_Madison-MoneyChangers_Banksters_control_of_government_by_controlling_money

http://americanfreepress.net/?p=9149

Click on image for article!

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July 10, 2014 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Ellen Brown: Central Banks On A Stock Buying Frenzy!

Click on image to play the MP3 interview!

Click on image to play the MP3 interview!

  • Ellen Brown – Central Banks On A Stock Buying Frenzy! 
    by Financial Survival Network 
    Ellen Brown wrote recently that central banks have the power to create national currencies with accounting entries, and they are traditionally very secretive. We are not allowed to peer into their books. It took a major lawsuit by Reuters and a congressional investigation to get the Fed to reveal the $16-plus trillion in loans it made to bail out giant banks and corporations after 2008. What is to stop a foreign bank from simply printing its own currency and trading it on the currency market for dollars, to be invested in the US stock market or US real estate market? What is to stop central banks from printing up money competitively, in a mad rush to own the world’s largest companies? Evidently not much. China’s central bank has been buying up stock both here and Europe with reckless abandon, wonder what their plan is.
http://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/2013/04/18/the-tower-of-basel-secretive-plans-for-the-issuing-of-a-global-currency-2/

Click on image for article!

Illuminist_banksters_creating_money_out_of_nothing_lending_n_charging_interest

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July 10, 2014 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

A Dark Alliance: European Union Joins Forces With Wall Street! TTIP Basis for Fascist New World Order, World Government!

http://www.thenewamerican.com/economy/item/17201-us-eu-trade-pact-accelerates-economic-and-political-integration

Click on image for article!

  • A Dark Alliance: European Union Joins Forces With Wall Street! 
    by  • July 7, 2014, http://wolfstreet.com/ 
    Unbeknownst to the vast majority of Europeans and Americans, late-stage negotiations are under way to significantly water down all forms of financial regulation on both sides of the Atlantic. This is part of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Treaty (TTIP) being negotiated behind closed doors.
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    However, contrary to popular wisdom, it’s not the U.S. government that is leading the charge, but rather an unholy alliance between the European Commission, Wall Street, and the City of London. According to Corporate Europe Observatory, one of the few organizations to report the latest TTIP leak, to understand these new developments, one must first bear in mind the political and regulatory context, both in Europe and the U.S:
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    The EU is on the brink of concluding its reform agenda in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008 with a set of rules that are weaker than those of the US in key areas such as banking regulation. That has already been the source of friction between the two blocs.
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    The most famous example is probably the attempt of Deutsche Bank’s subsidiary in the U.S. to come under U.S. rules on capital reserves (which require companies to keep aside a proportion of capital available to avoid risk of collapse or bailout)… Considering that Deutsche Bank was one of the largest recipients of bailout money from the U.S. authorities in the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the insurance giant AIG, a demand that it abides by U.S. rules on capital requirements seems entirely legitimate. But this is resented by the European Commission and financial corporations, as are other rules to which EU banks in the U.S. are subject.
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    The main reason why the European Commission is loath for European banks like Deutsche to have to operate under new U.S. rules is that they are woefully under-capitalized compared to U.S. banks, which themselves are worryingly under-capitalized. It is no coincidence that the central bankers’ central bank, the Bank of International Settlements, decided at the beginning of this year to “ease” leverage ratio rules that would have forced European banks to hold capital equivalent to 3 percent (that’s right: three measly percent!) of its total assets.
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    A Twisted Alliance
    In its attempt to twist the U.S. government’s arm on banking regulations, the Commission is bowing to pressure, both from domestic European banks and their “competitors” (ha!) on the other side of the pond. Too-big-to-fail banks in the U.S. and Europe would like nothing better than to torpedo the U.S. government’s latest efforts to more effectively regulate the sector.
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    The regulatory black hole commonly known as the City of London also seems to be playing a front-line role in negotiations. Richard Normington, senior manager of the Policy and Public Affairs team at the TheCityUK, a powerful British lobby group, had unreservedly promoted the Commission’s approach. He recently boasted that one of the Commission’s policy proposals, “reflected so closely the approach of TheCityUK that a bystander would have thought that it came straight out of our brochure on TTIP”.
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    read more!
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/dec/02/transatlantic-free-trade-deal-regulation-by-lawyers-eu-us

Click on image for article!

http://www.thenewamerican.com/world-news/item/15952-transatlantic-danger-us-eu-merger-talks-underway-in-d-c

Click on image for article!

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July 10, 2014 Posted by | Economics, EndTimes, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

James Howard Kunstler: ISIS Islamic State – Loose Artillery Shell on the Deck of the Ship of History!

  • James Howard Kunstler: Islamic State – Loose Artillery Shell on the Deck of the Ship of History! 
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 
    Veteran journalist and author, James Howard Kunstler, is worried about the violence heating up in the Middle East–especially Saudi Arabia.  Kunstler says, “Saudi Arabia is between a rock and a hard place, or should I say Iraq and a hard place.  Both sides that are now contending in Iraq, the Shiite and the Islamic State or caliphate, are both not friendly with Saudi Arabia.  When we talk about Saudi Arabia, we have to make a distinction.  We are really talking about the Saud Family and their Kingdom and their gripe on the Kingdom. . . . Now, they are stuck between the Iran sponsored Iraqi government—Shiites and the Sunni Islamic State rebels who do not want to see the Saudi Kingdom continue.”
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    There is no viable peace process anywhere in the Middle East, and Kunstler goes on to say, “We’ve never really seen much disorder in Saudi Arabia in our lifetimes.  The kind of disorder that is going on all over the Middle East and North Africa has simply not been happening in Saudi Arabia.  So, really, all bets are off.  This ISIS, Islamic State, group is a true black swan.  It came out of nowhere about three of four weeks ago and dismantled the 8 year and several trillion dollar project of nation building, and 4,500 American lives lost, that the U.S. has been carrying on.  We really don’t know where they are going next.  We don’t know where this thing is going.  This thing is literally a loose artillery shell on the deck of the ship of history.”
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    Kunstler goes on to point out, “You probably noticed that we are not shooting at anybody because we don’t know what to shoot at and how to do the shooting right now.  Just about everything we have done in the entire region has been counterproductive and has produced more chaos.  It may be an unfortunate fact there is not much more we can do.  Life is tragic, and there are consequences to the things we do to people, and societies make bad choices and they have to live with them, and we have to live with the bad choices we’ve made with the interventions in the Middle East, and we have no idea where this thing is going.”  I think you and me and just about everyone else would not like to enter some sort of World War III situation.  If Saudi Arabia goes off-line, I think you going to see an awful lot of stress in the global economy.  I think there are a lot of people in Washington at this moment that are very, very nervous.  We just aren’t seeing it.”
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    read more!

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July 10, 2014 Posted by | GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Dr. Jim Willie: ISIS is Langley, Virginia – CIA! Iraq to be Broken into 3 Parts, Petrodollar Collapse, American War Empire, Satanic Wall Street / City of London Banksters ….

Click on image to download MP3 interview!

Click on image to download MP3 interview!

  • Dr. Jim Willie: ISIS is Langley, Virgina – CIA! Iraq to be Broken into 3 Parts, Petrodollar Collapse, American War Empire ….! 
    by http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/ 
    Bombs bursting in air. Gave proof through the night, that our Jackass was still there…
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    O
    n Wednesday, our pal Jim Willie stopped by Turdville as our guest for this week’s Access2Access presentation. Vault subscribers asked an abundance of terrific questions and Jim generously donated over 80 minutes of his time answering them.
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    In some ways, I want to apologize for letting this run 80 minutes. I know you’re busy, too, and likely don’t have the time to listen to the entire presentation. That’s OK. Maybe break it up into several sittings? If you do, you’ll hear Jim discuss:
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    If he sees anything significant coming in July
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    The real reasons and sponsors of the fighting in Iraq
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    His preferred ratio of gold and silver holdings
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    Under-the-radar developments with the big, European banks
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    He even gives us his darkhorse World Cup winner and much, much more

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July 10, 2014 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Did the “Central Banks’ Central Bank” Just Call for a Stock-Market Collapse?

Carroll_Quigley_Tragedy_n_Hope2

  • The BIS, FedRes, ECB, IMF, World Bank, BOE … and practically all central banks are privately owned Illuminist corporations. Their owners are the Satanic bloodlines, the Old Black Nobility of Europe headed by the British Monarchy. Their objectives are: Luciferian New World Order, Global Supra-National Central Bank, One World Currency backed by gold –> ’666′!
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  • This coming collapse is more than a stock market collapse. It is a global economic, financial and currency collapse. The drums of their Satanic WW3 Is beating louder and louder.
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  • Did the “central banks’ central bank” just call for a stock-market collapse? 
    by on June 30, 2014, http://notquant.com/ 
    Don’t look now, but the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which is often referred to as the “central banks’ central bank”, just advised the world’s central banks to stage a market collapse now rather than later.
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    For anyone claiming that the many global critics of central banks are a “bunch of doomers”, that argument has now been officially buried, as the world’s premier forum of central bankers just sounded the alarm themselves:
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    The risk of normalising too late and too gradually should not be underestimated… The trade-off is now between the risk of bringing forward the downward leg of the cycle and that of suffering a bigger bust later on .”
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    So what was that about “bringing forward the downward leg of the cycle”?   For anyone who thinks collapses aren’t planned, let’s call that “Exhibit A”.  So much for free markets.  Let’s be clear:  The same forum of the world’s central bankers which recommended this monster bubble in the first place  and enriched the world’s top-1% to historic levels, is now discussing “bringing forward the downward leg of the cycle“.  Is there anything that isn’t planned?
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    Oh well, so much for our roaring equity markets. Those are apparently about to be sacrificed in a planned collapse — er, sorry, in a “bringing forward of the downward leg of the cycle“.   Not that our soaring markets were indicative of any underlying economic health anyway.   The BIS was kind enough to point out to it’s member central-banks that, markets are not only officially broken but the disconnect between markets and economic reality is your fault guys.
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    “Financial markets have been exuberant over the past year, at least in advanced economies, dancing mainly to the tune of central bank decisions. … Growth has disappointed even as financial markets have roared:  The transmission chain seems to be badly impaired.   …  Over time, policies lose their effectiveness and may end up fostering the very conditions they seek to prevent”.
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    The BIS is worried about the bubble it recommended in the first place:
    Well it’s all very nice that the BIS has warned that the world’s central banks have now officially broken markets and created a new bubble.    But there seems to be some serious double-speak involved in the language of “recovery” and “new bubble creation”.  Literally everyone in central-banking-land agreed that the bubble needed to be reflated after the housing-bust.  But now that it’s been reflated there’s a rather ironic concern that…uh oh… we reflated it.
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    Hello?
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    read more!

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July 10, 2014 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Countdown to Petrodollar Collapse: Saudi Arabia Will Be The Last Staw!

PetroDollar_Scam_Breaking_Down

PetroDollar is dying!

PetroDollar is dying!

  • ” ‘The day’ of reckoning is very close at hand and is inevitable. …. It is my expectation that we will hear any day now from the Saudi Arabians. … Should Saudi Arabia make an announcement of accepting another currency, the dollar will probably gap down 2-3 points initially and never again return to these current ‘heights.’ … In my opinion, our markets and banking system will not hold together more than 2 weeks after any such Saudi  announcement and it could be much faster .. - Quote
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  • Saudi Arabia Will Be The Last Staw
    by Bill Holter, http://blog.milesfranklin.com/ 
    Vladimir Putin spoke last week to Russian diplomats and in my opinion “told it like it really is” whether we like it or not.  He said that “the time of U.S. domination has ended and Russia will be reintegrating the Eurasian landmass (former USSR), while promoting better relations with Europe, ‘which is our natural partner’. “  The full story can be found here.
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    The following is just a sample of what has happened in just the last week alone.  Mr. Putin made this speech and also made the statement that the U.S. was trying to “blackmail” France into not doing business with Russia.  France signed a yuan swap deal with China followed by the head of France’s central bank saying flat out that the world will be encouraged to diversify away from using the dollar.  Also from France, the CEO of energy giant Total said he believes “there is no reason to pay for oil in dollars”.  South Korea announced direct trade with China where no dollars will be used.  Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan all called troops to defend their borders with Syria and Iraq in anticipation of ISIS turning their sights towards them.  The largest bank in Austria revealed that their bad loan portfolio increased by 40%.  In the U.S., the big news was the creation of 288,000 “new jobs”.  Unless you look under the hood you will not hear that 500,000 full time jobs were lost and 800,000 part time jobs were created.  These are all big individual stories and all have something to do with a weakening dollar, a weakening United States and reasons to move away from the dollar.
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    Almost everything that is now happening (almost exclusively bad) revolves around the dollar.  Actions by the U.S. that are now more and more obvious and desperate are designed to prolong the dollar’s life and actions by foreign nations are simply the preparations for when the day does finally arrive.  “The day” of reckoning is very close at hand and is inevitable.  We have lived for several decades where we “borrowed to buy” and paid with a currency that we can print freely and never really settled.  We never “planned” to settle …this was the plan.
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    One by one our allies are leaving us.  Britain has already announced direct currency swaps with China.  France is doing business directly with Russia.  South Korea is also doing direct business with China.  All of these deals are with the exclusion of U.S. dollars.  Each individual deal that is done is another chip away at the dollar.  It is my expectation that we will hear any day now from the Saudi Arabians.  They are the absolute trump card and should they announce any deal with any partner in any currency other than dollars, “the day” will have arrived.  Should Saudi Arabia make an announcement of accepting another currency, the dollar will probably gap down 2-3 points initially and never again return to these current “heights.”  No matter how it is spun by the press, Washington or Wall Street, please know that life as we knew it will have changed.  For us Americans, there will be no going back.
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    In my opinion, our markets and banking system will not hold together more than 2 weeks after any such Saudi  announcement and it could be much faster (as in the next day or even same day).  This is not me “crying wolf”.  The wolf is at the door and if you put the international pieces together this is clear.  Life inside of the U.S. (and all over the world) will change.  Our standard of living will be crushed.  What “dollars” you have left after the smoke clears will purchase far less than they do today.  In my opinion it will take 10 to 20 years before our ship can possibly be righted but never to the status that we have enjoyed so far during our lifetimes.
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    Please do not be fooled or lulled into the “it can’t happen” here syndrome.  Who would have thought that Britain, France and South Korea would ever defect their business practices away from the U.S.?  This has all happened in a very short time span.  I can’t tell you strongly enough that Saudi Arabia will be the last straw, this is only be a matter of time.  We know that even our closest allies are moving away from the dollar and we also know that Saudi Arabia has had several top level talks with both Russia and China recently.  How much more of a “2+2=4″ equation do you need?

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July 9, 2014 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

America Braces For Collapse And Martial Law!

  • Published on Jul 8, 2014
    David Knight is joined via phone by Alex covering the intense protests in California over bus loads of immigrants being brought into Murrieta county and the plan of crashing the US economy through enacting the Cloward & Piven strategy.

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July 9, 2014 Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

U.S. General Calls For North American Union Slave Grid !

  • Published on Jul 8, 2014
    David talks with WorldNetDaily journalist and author Jerome Corsi who covers his latest article, “What Comes ‘After America,” detailing the effort to merge the United States, Canada and Mexico into a single, North American Union.

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    http://www.infowars.com/using-the-tpp… 

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July 9, 2014 Posted by | GeoPolitics, Social Trends | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

John Rubino: Money Bubble Will Pop!

  • John Rubino: Money Bubble Will Pop! 
    by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 
    John Rubino, author of the new book “The Money Bubble,” can sum up the ongoing global financial problems in a single phrase: “There is too much debt.” Rubino goes on to say, “Debt works the same way for a country as it works for an individual or a family, which is to say if you borrow too much, then your life basically craters. Everything gets harder to do, and you end up doing things in order to deal with your past mistakes that you would never do normally. You start trying absolutely crazy things, and that’s where the world’s governments are right now. . . . We are doing all these things that are essentially con games and getting away with it so far because a printing press is a great tool for fooling people. I don’t see how we can get away with it too much longer.”
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    On the subject of increasing oil prices because of Middle East turmoil, Rubino says, “If gasoline goes to $5 a gallon in the U.S., which it could easily, that’s like a massive tax increase. This would come at a time when things are not that good and consumers are starting to borrow more and more money again. Governments are already deeply in debt. The derivatives markets are marching towards quadrillion dollars of notional value. The system is incredibly fragile because we borrowed too much money. . . . which causes us to do crazy things to prevent this fragility from turning into a 1930’s style depression or a Weimar Germany hyperinflation? That’s really where we are right now.” What could pop this “money bubble”? Rubino says, “The Middle East could be the catalyst that blows everything up. Derivatives could blow everything up. Japan is insanely indebted right now. . . . A currency crisis there could reverberate around the world. There are big problems everywhere you look.”
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    On the subject of public compliancy with an enormous financial system that has never been fixed, Rubino explains, “Most people sense that something is wrong. They don’t think the country and world are being run right, but it has been going on for a very long time. They are questioning whether it could go on forever. They have been hearing these gloom and doom predictions for a very long time, and they haven’t played out yet. The reason for that is a printing press is an amazing tool for fooling people.” Rubino also contends, “We could spend the entire show just going through the lies we are being told, one by one, with the stock market and LIBOR and gold manipulation and all the rest.” Let’s not forget money laundering for drug cartels and terrorists, where big banks are only fined in place of criminal charges. Rubino says, “There are crimes basically across the spectrum and nobody goes to prison, for this is a sign of how completely the banking system owns the government now. . . . They basically have made themselves immune to prosecution at a personal level. We could talk about this all day long and not run out of crimes to discuss.”
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    read more!

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July 9, 2014 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Paul Craig Roberts: Virtual Economy’s Phantom Job Gains Are Based on Statistical Fraud !

BLS: Bureau of Lying Statistics

BLS: Bureau of Lying Statistics

  • Paul Craig Roberts: Virtual Economy’s Phantom Job Gains Are Based on Statistical Fraud ! 
    by http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/ 
    And More Fraud Is in the Works 
    Washington can’t stop lying. Don’t be convinced by last Thursday’s job report that it is your fault if you don’t have a job. Those 288,000 jobs and 6.1% unemployment rate are more fiction than reality.
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    In his analysis of the June Labor Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, John Williams (www.ShadowStats.com) wrote that the 288,000 June jobs and 6.1% unemployment rate are “far removed from common experience and underlying reality.” Payrolls were overstated by “massive, hidden shifts in seasonal adjustments,” and the Birth-Death model added the usual phantom jobs.
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    Williams reports that “the seasonal factors are changed each and every month as part of the concurrent seasonal-adjustment process, which is tantamount to a fraud,” as the changes in the seasonal factors can inflate the jobs number. While the headline numbers always are on a new basis, the prior reporting is not revised so as to be consistent.
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    The monthly unemployment rates are not comparable, so one doesn’t know whether the official U.3 rate (the headline rate that the financial press reports) went up or down. Moreover, the rate does not count discouraged workers who, unable to find a job, cease looking. To be counted among the U.3 unemployed, the person must have actively looked for work during the four weeks prior to the survey. The U.3 rate automatically declines as people who have been unable to find jobs cease trying to find one and thereby cease to be counted as unemployed.
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    There is a second official measure of unemployment that includes people who have been discouraged for less than one year. That rate, known as U.6, is seldom reported and is double the 6.1% rate.
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    Since 1994 there has been no official measure than includes discouraged people who have not looked for a job for more than a year. Including all discouraged workers produces an unemployment rate that currently stands at 23.1%, almost four times the rate that the financial press reports.
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    What you can take away from this is the opposite of what the presstitute media would have you believe. The measured rate of unemployment can decline simply because large numbers of the unemployed become discouraged workers, cease looking for work, and cease to be counted in the U.3 and U.6 measures of the unemployment rate.
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    The decline in the employment-population ratio from 63% prior to the 2008 downturn to 59% today reflects the growth in discouraged workers. Indeed, the ratio has not recovered its previous level during the alleged recovery, an indication that the recovery is an illusion created by the understated measure of inflation that is used to deflate nominal GDP growth.
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    Another indication that there has been no recovery is that Sentier Research’s index of real median household income continued to decline for two years after the alleged recovery began in June 2009. There has been a slight upturn in real median household income since June 2011, but income remains far below the pre-recession level.
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    The Birth-Death model adds an average of 62,000 jobs to the reported payroll jobs numbers each month. This arbitrary boost to the payroll jobs numbers is in addition to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ underlying assumption that unreported jobs lost to business failures are matched by unreported new jobs from new business startups, an assumption that does not well fit an economy that fell into recession and is unable to recover.
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    read more!

US_Government_Economic_Statistics_Snake_Oil

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July 9, 2014 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , | Leave a comment

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