The Elephant In The Room: European Capital (Out)flows And Another €215 Billion In Spanish Deposit Flight !
- It is a question of when the Illuminists will pull the plug on the Eurozone. It appears to be Aug-Oct 2012. All the war preparations, exercises, trainings … for an attack on Iran points to: global economic, financial and monetary collapse leading to WW3!
The Elephant In The Room: European Capital (Out)flows And Another €215 Billion In Spanish Deposit Flight!
by Tyler Durden,
… And unfortunately for our European readers, if King is right, things in Europe are going to get far worse, before they get better, if at all. Because while one may speculate about political jawboning, the intricacies of summit backstabbing, and other generic nonsense, the one most important topic as discussed lately, is that terminal event that any financial system suffers just before it implodes or is bailed out: full scale bank runs. It is here where King’s observations, himself a member of a TBTF bank which would likely be dragged down in any cash outflow avalanche, are most disturbing: “In Greece, Ireland, and Portugal, foreign deposits have fallen by an average of 52%, and foreign government bond holdings by an average of 33%, from their peaks. The same move in Spain and Italy, taking into account the fall that has taken place already, would imply a further €215bn and €214bn in capital flight respectively, skewed towards deposits in the case of Spain and towards government bonds in the case of Italy….Economic deterioration, ratings downgrades and especially a Greek exit would almost certainly significantly accelerate the timescale and increase the amounts of these outflows.” That’s right: according to Citi there is a distinct likelihood that, all else equal, the domestic bank sector in Spain will see another €215 billion in deposit outflows.
And while Greece has seen a slow and steady bank run over the past 3 years, which has made it far more palatable for the local financial system, King believes that the days of “slow” outflows are now over: “we think the risks are skewed towards larger outflows occurring considerably more rapidly.” Now we won’t read too much into this, but following up on Jim Cramer’s Meet The Press interview from Sunday in which he explicitly predicted bank runs in Europe absent substantial and urgent policy changes, it appears that from a taboo, it has suddenly become all too cool to predict rapid and violent bank deposit flight in any but the priced to perfection scenario. Hopefully Spain is hip with all this sudden “coolness”…
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