Possible Imminent Eurozone Collapse a Game-Changer for Gold !
- I don’t think the Illuminists are ready to pull the plug yet! Probably Aug-Oct 2012 time frame! But then again they are not God and things can spiral totally out of their control!
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Possible imminent Eurozone collapse a game-changer for gold !
by Ross Norman, http://www.mineweb.com/
Gold is currently in a protracted period of consolidation and expecting a break-out but it is unclear in which direction! Down to $1,525 or up to $2,000 + – or maybe first one then the other. Interesting times!
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LONDON (Sharps Pixley) -”Speak of the devil” is a common idiom, which in full is “Speak of the devil and he doth appear”. In the same way one feels wary of commenting upon a possible economic collapse in Europe and the destruction of the Euro, for fear that it just might precipitate the event… despite the fact that we are all acutely conscious of the possibility. A case of the thought becoming mother to the deed. However, if gold is a barometer of just such an event then the temperature is nudging higher.
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Gold saw tsunamis of physical gold demand in Europe in 2008 and 2010 when the availability of anything below a 400 oz gold bar (worth $660,000) was simply not to be found for a several months. After a quiet first quarter, there are grounds for supposing that another wave of retail investment demand for gold might be just on the horizon.
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In the year that we commemorate the loss of Titanic, it is worth reflecting the crucial role of lifeboats in a crisis. Gold is a particularly small market and were you to liquidate an entire year’s gold mine production at current market prices, it would have a market cap of less than Vodafone – yet it is compared along with such investment mammoths as the US dollar, the FTSE 100 and the DJIA. Gold still represents less than one per cent of total assets under management (AUM) and to rise to the levels of the 1980′s (or by 2% of global financial AUM) would require the creation of 85,000 tonnes of new investment demand or 30 years of mine production. It is still significantly under-owned.
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Gold is currently in a protracted period of consolidation and expecting a break-out. Technically it is unclear which way the market could go – but fundamentally it looks likely that a sharp move to the upside is a distinctly possibility based upon rising economic tensions in Europe.
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From a technical perspective, the long term gold charts seem to be saying something big is going to happen, but unable to say clearly which way. The short term patterns have been quite negative, prompting some long liquidations (what you might call a “fake-out”) but there is a larger and more important chart shape emerging. The strongly bearish scenario is formed by a remarkably steady trend line back to 2008 which, if $1613 and $1600 were to be breached, would suggest an important shift in market behaviour.
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Furthermore, gold has a descending triangle which technical analyst Peter Brandt suggests would be ‘resolved’ by a move downwards to $1525… a game changer. The bullish argument is that gold could be forming a massive “reverse head & shoulders pattern”. The symmetry of this pattern, coupled with falling open interest, suggests a likely continuation considerably higher. A breach of $1700 would then be confirmed by a close above $1800 with a target to breach $1920 (the previous all time high) topping out at $2080.
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The gold market has been characterized by flat prices and declining open interest, as speculative interest fades. Usually the gold market finds equilibrium or a “bottom” before the primary trend reasserts itself – this seems to be what is happening now.
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So Long, US Dollar! Signs The Dollar Is Going The Way of The Dodo!
Well, what do you know? There are still some uses for the dollar!
- So Long, US Dollar!
By Marin Katusa, Casey Research
There’s a major shift under way, one the US mainstream media has left largely untouched even though it will send the United States into an economic maelstrom and dramatically reduce the country’s importance in the world: the demise of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
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For decades the US dollar has been absolutely dominant in international trade, especially in the oil markets. This role has created immense demand for US dollars, and that international demand constitutes a huge part of the dollar’s valuation. Not only did the global-currency role add massive value to the dollar, it also created an almost endless pool of demand for US Treasuries as countries around the world sought to maintain stores of petrodollars. The availability of all this credit, denominated in a dollar supported by nothing less than the entirety of global trade, enabled the American federal government to borrow without limit and spend with abandon.
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The dominance of the dollar gave the United States incredible power and influence around the world… but the times they are a-changing. As the world’s emerging economies gain ever more prominence, the US is losing hold of its position as the world’s superpower. Many on the long list of nations that dislike America are pondering ways to reduce American influence in their affairs. Ditching the dollar is a very good start.
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In fact, they are doing more than pondering. Over the past few years China and other emerging powers such as Russia have been quietly making agreements to move away from the US dollar in international trade. Several major oil-producing nations have begun selling oil in currencies other than the dollar, and both the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have issued reports arguing for the need to create a new global reserve currency independent of the dollar.
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The supremacy of the dollar is not nearly as solid as most Americans believe it to be. More generally, the United States is not the global superpower it once was. These trends are very much connected, as demonstrated by the world’s response to US sanctions against Iran.
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US allies, including much of Europe and parts of Asia, fell into line quickly, reducing imports of Iranian oil. But a good number of Iran’s clients do not feel the need to toe America’s party line, and Iran certainly doesn’t feel any need to take orders from the US. Some countries have objected to America’s sanctions on Iran vocally, adamantly refusing to be ordered around. Others are being more discreet, choosing instead to simply trade with Iran through avenues that get around the sanctions.
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It’s ironic. The United States fashioned its Iranian sanctions assuming that oil trades occur in US dollars. That assumption – an echo of the more general assumption that the US dollar will continue to dominate international trade – has given countries unfriendly to the US a great reason to continue their moves away from the dollar: if they don’t trade in dollars, America’s dollar-centric policies carry no weight! It’s a classic backfire: sanctions intended in part to illustrate the US’s continued world supremacy are in fact encouraging countries disillusioned with that very notion to continue their moves away from the US currency, a slow but steady trend that will eat away at its economic power until there is little left.
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Let’s delve into both situations – the demise of the dollar’s dominance and the Iranian sanction shortcuts – in more detail.
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Signs the Dollar Is Going the Way of the Dodo
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… read more!
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Fleckenstein: FedRes Idiots Wrong, Big Problems in Europe & US!
- Fleckenstein – Fed Idiots Wrong, Big Problems in Europe & US!
by www.kingworldnews.com
On the heels of the release of the Fed statement and the Bernanke press conference, today King World News interviewed Bill Fleckenstein, President of Fleckenstein Capital, to get his take on the situation. Fleckenstein told KWN the economy will roll over, Europe will go into the abyss and the Fed will be forced to ease. He also described the Fed as “idiots” and said they are completely wrong about what they are saying: “Let’s take a step back for a second. Who are these people? They’re the same idiots that never saw anything coming. So whatever they think they see or whatever they want to talk about is meaningless because they are probably wrong about what they think.”
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They don’t know anything. They’re idiots. They are the cause of the problem. So why do we want to know what the idiots think about about the current state of the economy? Why do we care that they currently think they are so smart and that everything is okay? ….. Given the amount of easing and the size of the fiscal stimulus, we should be having a boom. We can barely get a blip because the economy is broken and they broke it.”
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… read more!
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March Durable Good Implode, Worse Than Lowest Wall Street Forecast And Biggest Drop Since January 2009!
- QE to infinity is coming! Don’t believe the MSM economic recovery hype!
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March Durable Good Implode, Worse Than Lowest Wall Street Forecast And Biggest Drop Since January 2009!
by Tyler Durden, http://www.zerohedge.com/
So much for a moderate decline in the economy. As we warned back in February when we noted that the non-seasonally unadjusted collapse in durable goods was historic, now that the aftereffect of a record warm winter is fully gone, the March durable goods data comes in and it was a complete disaster: instead of dropping modestly by 1.7% as the consensus expected, the March actual print was a massive 4.2% decline, worse than the worst Wall Street forecast, or the most since January 2009! And it was not only airplanes as many were expecting (despite Boeing’s just announced epic sales): the ex-transportation number was down 1.1%, on expectations of a 0.5% gain; even worse, capital goods new orders slid 0.8% on expectations of a 1% gain. And as usual inventories hit another record high.
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Overall, a horrendous print which confirms that the entire myth of a recovery in Q1 was warm weather driven, and that about 1% of the 2.5% or so consensus GDP was due to the weather. Expect the downward GDP revisions to come any second. But don’t expect the market to react to this news at all: after all if anything, this simply makes NEW QE/LTRO more likely and is to be cheered by all habitual gamblers. Worse than lowest estimate ( a 2 sigma miss)…
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… read more!
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Going Dutch: The Netherlands To Abandon The Euro?
- Going Dutch: The Netherlands to abandon the euro?
by http://rt.com/
The Dutch government has collapsed after failing to win coalition support for its austerity plans. Elections are set to be held in September and analysts say one of the EU’s strongest economies may bring the unified currency’s demise
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Prime Minister Mark Rutte, a strong advocate of the Euro, has been trying to get the Parliament to adopt 14-16 billion euros worth of austerity cuts. The deficit slashing is aimed at getting the Dutch budget deficit under the three per cent of deficit to GDP limit established by the new EU fiscal pact.
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Rutte was unable to win the support of the far-right Freedom Party, whose leader Geert Wilders said his country should not fund the new European Stability Mechanism and, at the same time, be expected to implement Brussels’ budget deficit caps.
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“We don’t want to cut spending by 14 billion euros and at the same time transfer billions of euros to Brussels for the horrible ESM emergency fund and the weak Greeks,” Wilders noted.
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At the same time, the Dutch government’s austerity measures came under criticism from the leftist opposition Labor Party. Its leader Diederik Samsom admitted that the three per cent deficit limit existed, but stressed that the Netherlands did not have to comply “if there are exceptional circumstances in the economy.”
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After failing to obtain the necessary support from coalition partners, Rutte, who is the leader of the center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, tendered his resignation and said new elections were likely to be held in September, after the summer break. The now-acting premier is still hoping to obtain the support of minor opposition parties to pass his legislation.
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Journalist Neil Clark believes the Dutch are largely angered with the fact with the EU fiscal pact that imposes deficit limits on its signatories.
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“The people have had enough of austerity,” Clark told RT “Holland’s GDP growth in the ten years since it’s had the Euro has just been 1.5 per cent. And they’re now being told that because of this absolutely insane fiscal pact that was agreed upon last year. It will destroy the good life that the Dutch people have been used to over the years. And unsurprisingly the Dutch are saying, it’s enough.”
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He also said leaving the Euro was now a possibility for the Netherlands.
“I think if Holland were to leave the Euro, and that’s not such a far-fetched idea now, as it might have appeared a few years ago, then it really is game over. Because Holland has been a strong ally of Germany in the drive towards the Euro and I think it would be an enormous blow.”
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A number of Eurozone economies have adopted austerity measures to reduce their massive budget debts and deficits. These measures have not been met with much popular support especially in such crisis-hit countries such as Greece, Spain and Italy. The Dutch economy is in much better shape and the Moody’s agency maintains an AAA rating for the country’s economy, though it did consider the government crisis to be a “negative factor”.
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Nightmare Week for Angela Merkel as Austerity Bloc Crumbles!
- The Illuminist banksters have taken over Europe. Private bankster debts have been socialized ie. dumped onto the sheeple. Why should the public be made to pay back these bankster debts when it is the criminal banksters who caused this debt crisis? All the Illuminist politicians are doing is to bail out the banksters while shoving the bill down the sheeple’s throats. Austerity and unemployment for the sheeple while billion dollar bonuses for the banksters! It is financial rape!
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Nightmare week for Angela Merkel as austerity bloc crumbles!
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
Europe’s political centre is starting to crumble, replicating the pattern of the early 1930s as the crisis ground into its third year under a similar mix of fiscal and monetary contraction.
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Elected governments have already been swept away – or replaced by EU technocrats without a vote, indeed to prevent a vote – in every eurozone state where unemployment has reached double-digits: Spain (23.6pc), Greece (21pc), Portugal (15pc), Ireland (14.7pc) and Slovakia (14pc).
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The political carnage has been striking. Ireland’s Fianna Fail, creator of the Irish free state, has lost every seat in Dublin. Greece’s Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) – torch-bearers of Greek democracy since the Colonels – has fallen to 14pc in the polls and faces ruin next month.
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This week the tornado has smashed into the core, bringing down Holland’s govenment and probably the French leader Nicolas Sarkozy as well in a cacophany of anti-EU diatribes.
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Keynesians blame budget cuts, convinced that the pace of fiscal tightening – a net 2.5pc of GDP in Spain and 3.5pc in Italy -is beyond any sensible therapeutic dose, and already shown to be self-defeating in Greece, where economic collapse has left the deficit stuck near 10pc.
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Monetarists blame the European Central Bank, accusing Frankfurt of tipping half of Europe back into slump by responding to last year’s oil shock with rate rises. The effect was to compound drastic falls in real M1 deposits across Club Med, and trigger a credit crunch just as banks were slashing balances sheets to meet new rules. While the ECB has since launched its €1 trillion liquidity blast, this is not quantitative easing and has toxic side-effects.
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… read more!
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IDF Chief To Haaretz: I Do Not Believe Iran Will Decide To Develop Nuclear Weapons!
What is all the BS about Iran being a nuclear threat? It is pure propaganda and outright lies by the Zionists!
- Perhaps some form of sanity has returned to these Zionists. Is this just another political theatre to cool the drums of war because they are not ready? Is this just another game, performed for the easily deceived sheeple? Who knows? Attacking Iran is the dumbest idea of all the dumb ideas by the Zionists. Millions of Israelis will die!
- - All the talk about Iran being a nuclear existential threat to Zionist Israel are lies and BS! It is Zionist ’666′ Israel that threatens its neighbours and has consistently waged wars of aggression. The reality is: the Illuminists want to use Zionist ’666′ Israel as the deceived useful idiots to destroy the Middle East Muslim World and in the process destroys Zionist ’666′ Israel. Be careful of all these Zionist-Illuminists painting Iran as a nuclear threat to the world. It is nonsensical. Iran does not have a nuclear bomb nor a nuclear weapons program! (emphasis & remarks mine)
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IDF chief to Haaretz: I do not believe Iran will decide to develop nuclear weapons!
By Amos Harel, http://www.haaretz.com/
Gantz says the international pressure on Iran, in the form of diplomatic and economic sanctions, is beginning to bear fruit.
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”If Iran goes nuclear it will have negative dimensions for the world, for the region, for the freedom of action Iran will permit itself,” Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz told Haaretz in an Independence Day interview.
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That freedom of action might be expressed “against us, via the force Iran will project toward its clients: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Islamic Jihad in Gaza. And there’s also the potential for an existential threat. (This is BS) If they have a bomb, we are the only country in the world that someone calls for its destruction and also builds devices with which to bomb us. (Outright propaganda & war mongering!) But despair not. We are a temperate state. (BS) The State of Israel is the strongest in the region and will remain so. Decisions can and must be made carefully, out of historic responsibility but without hysteria,” Gantz said.
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Both 2012 and 2013 are seen as critical with regard to Iran’s nuclear program. At his rare public appearances Gantz has taken a cautious approach to the issue – mentioning the military option, whose development and preparation he oversees, while leaving the door open to international negotiations with Iran. His language is far from the dramatic rhetoric of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and is usually free of the Holocaust comparisons of which Israeli politicians are so fond.
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… read more!
Revelation 2:9 - .... and I know the blasphemy of those who say they are Jews and are not, but are a synagogue of Satan.
by Warner D. Farr, LTC, U.S. Army, http://www.au.af.mil/
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Jim Willie: Eurozone Collapse, End of PetroDollar, Global Reset Coming ….
Click on image to start audio MP3 interview!
- Interview of Jim Willie on 24 April 2012 by Rick Wiles of TruNews. Topics:
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– Hot summer of social unrest and protests in Europe!
– Spain, France and Italy heading for collapse!
– Germany will leave the Euro(EMS) first? Euro is fracturing!
- Next 2-3 months major calamity in Eurozone?
– Fracturing of Euro into: Latin/Southern Euro & Northern Euro(Mark)?
– Germany going to announce alliance with Russia and China?
– 200 Arab billionaires met on Easter weekend 2010 in Abu Dhabi & worked out new plan for ME.
- Persian oil powers saying goodbye to American protection? Funeral arrangements for petrodollar. Dollar collapse coming!
– China and Russia to replace American hegemony in ME.
– Saudi Arabia has agreed to it? Non dollar for oil !
- Russia preparing for new currency. Asset backed currency.
- Alternative SWIFT system coming (driven by Chinese?)!
- and many more issues
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About
Societal and economics observer and commentator with an endtimes, future history perspective. Follow me at Twitter: socioecohistory
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