Socio-Economics History Blog

Socio-Economics & History Commentary

ZeroHedge: The Great Collapse Has Officially Begun!

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  • I repeat this warning again for all who have the ears to hear! Great financial tsunami is coming! Global economic, financial and monetary collapse coming soon! All of us who understand what is going on, are all “running for the hills” or “hiding in our underground shelters”! Got gold yet?
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    The Great Collapse Has Officially Begun
    by Phoenix Capital Research, http://www.zerohedge.com/
    I’ve been warning of this for well over two years. My primary warnings were:
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    1)   That 2008 was just a warm-up
    2)   That the REAL Crisis had yet to unfold
    3)   That the REAL Crisis would make 2008 look like a picnic
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    Well, the period I’ve been warning of is now here.  What’s happening right
    now is not just a market crash, bear market, deflation, or any other item related to just one asset class.
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    Instead, this is a collapse of the entire US monetary and political system and the mentality of spending one’s way to wealth.
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    For 80+ years, the US has operated under a crony capitalist system in which politicians dole out political and economic favors to the chosen few whose bribes/donations funded their campaigns.

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    This system was aided and abetted by the US Federal Reserve, which dealt with any and all economic issues by printing more money. Whether it was the Asian Crisis, Long Term Capital Management, or the 2008 Crash, the Fed dealt with the issue by opening the floodgates and flooding the financial system with liquidity.
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    Aside from making moral hazard (the notion that those large firms who screwed up were never actually allowed to fail) the bedrock of the financial system, the Fed also blew a credit bubble which in turn funded bubbles in virtually every asset class: bonds, stocks, real estate, emerging markets, even some commodities.
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    Indeed, the vast majority of US economic growth over the last 40 years has been fueled by the Fed’s loose money policies. Bill King, an analyst and investor whom I admire, shared the below chart with me a while back. It charts US GDP growth in nominal terms (the dark blue line), the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the black line), and REAL GDP growth or growth that accounts for inflation (the light blue line).
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    As you can see, when we account for inflation, the US economic “miracle” of the last 30 years is in fact not all that miraculous. Take away easy credit and Fed funny money and the US GDP has barely grown at all since the ‘70s.
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    When your entire financial system is built on debt eventually you hit a brick wall. We did this in 2008. The Fed barely held the system together by going “all in” and funneling over $11 trillion in bailouts, backstopping the major US banks, and transferring north of $2 trillion in garbage debt to the public’s balance sheet (these are just the moves we know about).
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    This effort has now failed as the world collectively realizes that the Fed cannot hold the system together. This began to become clear when QE 2 spent $600 billion and the US got at most three months’ worth of improved economic data (while inflation exploded throughout the global economy, leading to riots, coups, and more).

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    In simple terms, we’ve now entered the Real Crisis, the END GAME, for our current monetary system. Before the dust settles on this mess, the US and its political, economic, monetary structure will look very very different.
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    However, before we get there, we will see riots, civil unrest, possibly martial law, for certain a Government shutdown, bank holidays, a debt default/ restructuring, the re-instatement of the Gold standard or something like it (possibly a basket of commodities), food shortages, and more.
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    We will also see trade wars, possibly another World War, a temporary backlash against globalization, a de-consolidation or fragmentation of corporate America, and other items.
    ….
    …. for the full article click here!

end

August 22, 2011 - Posted by | Economics, GeoPolitics | , , , , , , , , , ,

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