- I follow the work of John Williams (www.shadowstats.com) pretty closely. This is because he is a reliable independent supplier of US economic stats. I seriously doubt all the BS coming out from the Bureau of Lying Statistics (BLS and official government economic crap!
- I see hyperinflation ahead. It is part of the Illuminist plan to destroy the USD and hyperinflate away all their debts and losses. It allows them to engineer the crisis needed for their pre-planned One World Currency solution.
John Williams of ShadowStats Warns Hyperinflation Will Start in the Next Couple Months!
John Williams of Shadowstats has repeatedly warned that our economy is not doing as well as some would have you believe. From unemployment to GDP to current and future liabilities, there are fundamental problems that will not be resolved anytime soon – in fact, they’re likely to get worse. The end result according to Williams?
A hyperinflationary depression.
Eventually it’s going to be a hyperinflationary great depression in the United States. We’re already seeing food and energy prices rise significantly – with price jumps of 30% or more year-over-year. We can argue about deflation or inflation, but we will not be sure of exactly what comes next until it actually happens. John Williams provides some recommendations, all of which we’ve discussed before, for preparing yourself and loves ones for the possibility of a complete meltdown in the US dollar. Williams is a respected economist who has a high level understanding of the fundamental numbers behind our economy, so his forecasts and recommendations should not be taken lightly:
In terms of maintaining the purchasing power of your assets and wealth – and this is primarily a problem for people who live in a US dollar denominated world – Canada is not going to necessarily have this problem – you look to put your dollars in hard assets like physical gold and silver, getting the dollar into other currencies such as the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, Swiss franc.
In the US we don’t have a back up system. Zimbabwe had the worst hyperinflation anyone’s ever seen. But, they survived. They had an ongoing economy. That was because of a black market in US dollars. We don’t have a black market in the US. There’s no backup to our system.
It gets very difficult when food starts to disappear from food shelves. What happens? You can probably use common sense. It’s probably a good idea to store goods that you would normally consume for several months, just to protect yourself, your family and to have goods for barter.
That four pound bag of rice, roll of toilet paper or bottle of Jack Daniels you have stored up in your prep closet may very well be worth it’s weight in silver if and when goods start flying of the store shelves.
One of the primary concerns for people who know a major collapse is coming is how to identify it when it is happening. What are the signs?
Sign number one is what governments do before a hyperinflationary collapse. If history is any guide, then the monetary actions of our Federal Reserve are a clear indicator. As Jon Stewart humorously pointed out recently, the Fed is “imagineering” money out of thin air. This means more money in our overall money supply chasing fewer goods, which inevitably leads to higher prices. We’re seeing this the world over in commodity prices, as well as other assets. One of the big complaints coming out of China is that the policies of the Federal Reserve are leading to the US exporting inflation to China, as evidenced by significant increases in their own domestic stock market prices and real estate values. The Chinese are already taking steps to curb this inflationary bubble in the making. Another sign of coming fiscal problems, which ultimately leads to more monetary quantitative easing policies is the continued uncontrolled spending of Federal, State and local governments. As they waste more money, more needs to be printed to “monetize” the debt that no one else wants to buy.
We’ve warned about it before, and we’ll say it again because it is going to be the trigger that sets the whole thing into a complete collapse. When our creditors start offloading US Treasuries and stop buying new debt issues, the game is over. John Williams confirms this view and provides some more insights as to what you should be looking for as telltale signs that hyperinflation is upon us:
This is not good news. Weakness in the dollar is what will kill the system, it’s what will trigger the early signs of hyperinflation. Which, as you mentioned, could be as early as the next six to nine months. Down the road that remains to be seen as to the timing.
Watch the dollar. Watch for panic there. If it gets out of control you’ll see massive dumping of dollars. The Fed will be intervening even more than it does now. People will be turning dollars over as quickly as they can – they’re not going to want to hold them. Prices will sky rocket. We’re going to see this in the next couple months starting with gasoline and food prices.
We have yet to see the ramp up in commodities hit the store shelves and gas stations. But be assured that it will happen (unless stocks and commodities crash in the near future). This price increase simply cannot be avoided. It’s already happening. Most of us have seen small percentage rises in grocery store prices already, and media outlets are reporting $3 gas by Christmas. These price bumps are nothing compared to what must happen as a result of price rises in commodity markets over the last year.
Thus, in the next 1 – 3 months, we should start seeing the early signs. Mr. Williams’ forecast in this regard falls in line with those made by Gonzalo Lira in Hyperinflation Tipping Point By Early 2012, an insightful article that provides some more technical and economic signs to look for. Both forecasts suggest that 2011 will see the beginning of our hyperinflationary spiral.
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- The US treasury market looks bad, maybe even financial Armageddon bad ! It is apparent to most in the market that the FedRes is losing control. Interest rates are rising despite the FedRes’ open market purchase of bonds! Who are the sellers? Quite obviously foreigners: China and Russia in particular. When the stampede out of the USD and treasuries starts it will be Armageddon for the world economy.
Market alarm as US fails to control biggest debt in history
US Treasuries last week suffered their biggest two-day sell-off since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. The borrowing costs of the government of the world’s largest economy have now risen by a quarter over the past four weeks.
Such a sharp rise in US benchmark market interest rates matters a lot – and it matters way beyond America. The US government is now servicing $13.8 trillion (£8.7 trilion) in declared liabilities – making it, by a long way, the world’s largest debtor. Around $414bn of US taxpayers’ money went on sovereign interest payments last year – around 4.5 times the budget of America’s Department of Education.
Debt service costs have reached such astronomical levels even though, over the past year and more, yields have been kept historically and artificially low by “quantitative easing (QE)” – in other words, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s virtual printing press. Now borrowing costs are 28pc higher than a month ago, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 3.33pc last week, an already eye-watering debt service burden can only go up.
Few on this side of the Atlantic should feel smug. The eurozone’s ongoing sovereign debt debacle has pushed up Germany’s borrowing costs by 27pc over the last month – to 3.03pc. The market has judged that if Europe’s Teutonic powerhouse wants the single currency to survive, it will ultimately need to raise wads of cash to absorb the mess caused by other member states’ fiscal incontinence.
While the UK isn’t ensnared in monetary union, gilt yields have also spiralled 18pc since the start of November – to 3.55pc. British Government debt is officially £1.05 trillion. We are fast approaching a debt-to-GDP ratio of 100pc, compared to 30pc just a decade ago. If you add off-balance-sheet liabilities to Government estimates, including the bank bail-outs which disgracefully remain “off the books”, the UK already owes more than an entire year’s national income. In the medium-term, this is surely incompatible with a Triple AAA credit rating.
Even with gilt yields ultra-low, courtesy of British QE, the UK is still spending £42bn a year servicing sovereign debt – up 50pc since 2008. The Coalition is talking tough about reining-in the annual budget deficit, but our burgeoning debt stock means interest payments are anyway set to reach £70bn – twice the defence budget – by 2015. And those numbers rest on low gilt-yield assumptions that will be blown out of the water if this recent bond market implosion is the start of a trend.
Some say that growing signs of a US economic recovery are positive for stocks, which means money is being diverted out of Treasuries, so lowering their price, which pushes up yields. That’s wishful thinking. Sovereign borrowing costs have just surged in the US – and therefore elsewhere – because a politically-wounded President Obama caved-in and extended the Bush-era tax cuts, combining them with a $120bn payroll tax holiday.
Lower taxes, and the certainty of lower taxes, may bolster business investment and growth. That’s the logic employed by those painting last week’s global yield spike in a positive light. Government borrowing costs rose in America and elsewhere, they say, as a re-bounding US economy is now drawing investors’ cash away from sovereign bonds and towards more productive uses.
The reality is, though, that the market is increasingly alarmed at the rate of increase of the US government’s already massive liabilities. America’s government debt is set to expand by a jaw-dropping 42pc over the next few years, reaching $19.6 trillion by 2015 according to Treasury Department estimates presented (amid very little fanfare) to Congress back in June. Since then, government spending has risen even more. So US debt service costs, like those of many other Western nations, are expanding rapidly in terms of both the volumes of sovereign instruments outstanding, and the yields on each bond.
The new worry in the market is that this latest round of tax cuts could add another $1 trillion to the US deficit, on top of the already horrendous numbers produced in June. With opinion now deeply split about the wisdom of yet another round of QE, bond investors are getting increasingly worried that the Fed will turn off the funny-money and the sugar-rush will fade. Meanwhile, the US has very few plans – and none of them remotely credible – to get to grips with the biggest debt in history.
America has lately been very happy for small eurozone members to endure most of the adverse publicity related to the sovereign bond crisis. But, as of last week, the Western government debt debacle has entered the big league. We’re going to hear a lot more about the US government’s borrowing costs over the coming months – and the related “contagion” of other countries’ treasury bills, as America’s funding issues focus attention on the scale and ratcheting interest costs of sovereign debts in other large economies too.
Until now, market attention has oscillated between the eurozone and the States, with one region’s debt instruments benefiting from the woes of the other. Last week marked a turning point. Western sovereign instruments were hammered across the board – with traders making little distinction between the debts of Germany or Japan. There’s a lot more of this to come.
Investors en masse are parking ever more cash in alternative asset classes, such as commodities, other tangible assets and emerging market sovereign debts. The pool of money available to finance Western government borrowing is, in relative and maybe even in absolute terms, starting to shrink. This is extremely worrying – not least because of the industrialised world’s demography. Our ageing population means that higher future borrowing requirements are practically guaranteed, even if our politicians become paragons of fiscal virtue – which, of course, they won’t. As one economist I admire recently quipped: “Expecting today’s Western leaders to run fiscal surpluses is like expecting dogs to stockpile sausages”.
Over the coming months, the world’s appetite for dollar assets will be very severely tested – perhaps very close to destruction. America boasts the world’s reserve currency, of course, but its ability to borrow from the rest of the world is not without limit. Last week’s US tax move poses great dangers. There is little point in a fiscal giveaway that’s cancelled out by higher rates. All you end up with is even more sovereign debt. Upgraded growth forecasts don’t cause yield spike like that we saw last week – and its absurd to suggest that they do. There’s a new mood in the bond markets – a mood of zero tolerance.
- Do you have difficulty accepting all that I say about Illuminist banksters? Am I merely speculating without any basis in reality? Read for yourself what the New York Times say. The derivatives market is a US$1.5 Quadrillion blackhole by some estimates. These are largely fraudulent paper assets, think MBS, ABS, CDO…etc. These are toxic paper which are probably worth only 10 cents to the dollar. No one knows the true extent of the problem as it is an unregulated OTC market. This derivatives blackhole is going to bring down the entire world’s economy! The derivatives market is really a Wall Street financial casino. Forget about regulating it, just close it down and make it illegal. It has limited benefits but enormous risks.
A Secretive Banking Elite Rules Trading in Derivatives
On the third Wednesday of every month, the nine members of an elite Wall Street society gather in Midtown Manhattan. The men share a common goal: to protect the interests of big banks in the vast market for derivatives, one of the most profitable — and controversial — fields in finance. They also share a common secret: The details of their meetings, even their identities, have been strictly confidential.
Drawn from giants like JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the bankers form a powerful committee that helps oversee trading in derivatives, instruments which, like insurance, are used to hedge risk. In theory, this group exists to safeguard the integrity of the multitrillion-dollar market. In practice, it also defends the dominance of the big banks.
The banks in this group, which is affiliated with a new derivatives clearinghouse, have fought to block other banks from entering the market, and they are also trying to thwart efforts to make full information on prices and fees freely available. Banks’ influence over this market, and over clearinghouses like the one this select group advises, has costly implications for businesses large and small, …
Derivatives shift risk from one party to another, and they offer many benefits, like enabling Mr. Singer to sell his fixed plans without having to bear all the risk that oil prices could suddenly rise. Derivatives are also big business on Wall Street. Banks collect many billions of dollars annually in undisclosed fees associated with these instruments — an amount that almost certainly would be lower if there were more competition and transparent prices.
Just how much derivatives trading costs ordinary Americans is uncertain. The size and reach of this market has grown rapidly over the past two decades. Pension funds today use derivatives to hedge investments. States and cities use them to try to hold down borrowing costs. Airlines use them to secure steady fuel prices. Food companies use them to lock in prices of commodities like wheat or beef.
The marketplace as it functions now “adds up to higher costs to all Americans,” said Gary Gensler, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates most derivatives. More oversight of the banks in this market is needed, he said.
But big banks influence the rules governing derivatives through a variety of industry groups. The banks’ latest point of influence are clearinghouses like ICE Trust, which holds the monthly meetings with the nine bankers in New York.
Under the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul, many derivatives will be traded via such clearinghouses. Mr. Gensler wants to lessen banks’ control over these new institutions. But Republican lawmakers, many of whom received large campaign contributions from bankers who want to influence how the derivatives rules are written, say they plan to push back against much of the coming reform. On Thursday, the commission canceled a vote over a proposal to make prices more transparent, raising speculation that Mr. Gensler did not have enough support from his fellow commissioners.
The Department of Justice is looking into derivatives, too. The department’s antitrust unit is actively investigating “the possibility of anticompetitive practices in the credit derivatives clearing, trading and information services industries,” according to a department spokeswoman.