Quantitative Easing, The Path To Global Monetary Crisis: “If You Print A Trillion, I’ll Print A Trillion”!

• We are heading to a world currency crisis. This will be triggered by a collapse of the USD. We may be days or weeks away from a global meltdown. Hidden in the shadows is the US$1.5 Quadrillion toxic derivatives problem. These pieces of paper are mostly fraudulent and largely worthless. This derivatives black-hole will be detonated via the MBS fraudulent derivatives crisis. This will be the excuse to launch perhaps US$100T QE 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 …..
   
• All the major banks are insolvent because they hold anywhere between US$10T to $90T each of toxic worthless derivatives. It is impossible to write off such massive losses. If you have a capital of US$1-2T, how do you write off US$40T? The entire world’s GDP is US$65T and the banksters hold US$1,500 Trillion dollars of worthless derivatives. US$65T of GDP is barely 5% of US$1.5 Quadrillion. This is financial Armageddon!
   
• Do not be deceived. This is a plan destruction of the current world order by Illuminist banksters. Their intention is world economic, financial and monetary collapse leading to world war! How does an Illuminist bankster survive a loss of US$40T? This is a humongous amount of money! But what if a cup of coffee costs US$1T? US$40T is really just 40 cups of coffee right? This is chump change, I can afford to lose US$40T too. So how do you get the price of a cup of coffee to US$1T? Hyperinflation via massive QE!!!!
   
• The banksters are rabidly foreclosing on the sheeple. Why? Because they need to accumulate hard assets (ie. real estate) before hyperinflation kicks in! What is now a REO negative equity of say US$250K in their books will suddenly become US$25M when hyperinflation kicks in. Hey presto, the Illuminist banksters are solvent and Quadrillionaires! Get the scam? 
   
  Andy Xie: “If You Print A Trillion, I’ll Print A Trillion”
  …The world seems full of smoke ahead of a world currency war. The weapon of choice is quantitative easing, a.k.a. QE. If you print a trillion, I’ll print a trillion. Of course, he and she will too. No change in exchange rates after a trillion? Let’s do it again, QE2. If you listen to people like Geithner, the end of the world is quite near. Rich people everywhere are buying gold for a little peace of mind, not just the Chinese. They are literally trucking it by the ton or two home. When currency values vanish in a QE melee, at least the rich have the gold to stay rich.
   
  If you listen to American pundits, politicians or government officials, it’s all China’s fault. China is far from perfect. Its currency policy certainly isn’t. But it is not the cause for the world’s ills. The U.S. is by far the biggest source of uncertainty and the initiator of the QE war.  Its elite created the biggest financial bubble since 1929, even removing regulations designed to prevent it, and left the U.S. economy in shambles after its burst. The same people want to find a quick cure to hold onto their power. Unfortunately, there is no quick cure.
   
  The U.S. has cut interest rates to zero and run up the budget deficit to 10 percent of GDP. It’s a shock-and-awe Keneysian policy. But, after a few quarters of strong growth, the economy is turning down again, and the unemployment remains close to 10 percent. And this figure would be much higher, close to 20 percent like Spain’s, if it included the underemployed and those who have stopped looking for work.
   
  The stimulus has failed.  How should one interpret the result?  If you were Paul Krugman, you would say it wasn’t enough.  Of course, if 20 percent of GDP in budget deficit and another round of QE still don’t work, he would say not enough again.  You can never prove Krugman wrong. Such a smart fellow.
   
  The second interpretation is that it takes time for the economy to heal. No economy recovers so quickly after a bubble that big. During this prolonged and massive bubble, resources have become so misallocated that it takes time for regeneration. In particular, when the labor market is misallocated, it just can’t correct itself quickly. Hence, when an economy is in a misallocated state, a stimulus kicks up growth through its own power but can’t get the multiplier effect for the economy to sustain growth beyond.
   
  The third interpretation is that it’s China’s fault. Yes, China’s exports to the U.S. rose sharply during its stimulus-inspired pickup, i.e., the stimulus partly went to China. But, whose fault is it? Apple makes all the iPhones in China, because it costs under US$ 20 each, even after the massive wage increase for Chinese workers. Apple’s gross margins are 30 times the processing cost that goes to China. Maybe Apple is an extreme example. But, the fact is that China’s exports to the US are American goods that retail for 3-4 times of the factory-gate prices. American companies want to make the goods in China to satisfy the stimulus-inspired demand.
   
  People like Geithner would argue that China should raise the currency to force American companies to move production back to the U.S. I suppose that that is how the whole yuan appreciation idea may work. But, at what exchange rate would the American companies want to do it? American wages are ten times China’s. Should China increase its currency value ten times?
   
  Of course, the American pundits wouldn’t put it that way. They would talk about China’s trade or current account surplus and the rising forex reserves, the prima facie evidence of currency manipulation. I don’t want to deny that the rising forex reserves are a problem that China must tackle with. But, it is a separate issue from the US economy. The solution isn’t yuan appreciation either.
     ……
  I think China’s currency is overvalued. China’s money supply has exploded in the past decade, rising from 12 to 70 trillion yuan. No currency has not experienced depreciation after a such a prolonged bout of money growth. China’s industry has risen tremendously to justify part of the growth. But, a massive amount is in the overvalued property market. When it normalizes, the money flows out and the currency depreciation pressure happens. We should see this within two years.
   
  What is right isn’t important for now. What is politically expedient is. Americans want a quick cure for its economic difficulties. It wants to devalue the dollar to achieve it. If it could force China to increase its currency value, then the yen, euro, and all the others would go up in tandem. The U.S., one fourth of the global economy, could export out of its problem.
   
  The problem is that all the others won’t follow this program. China could not move up its currency value too much. Otherwise, it would trigger hot money outflows, a total collapse of its property market and the banking system with it. China is between a rock and a hard place. It is trying to achieve a soft landing of its property market by incremental tightening steps while the currency appreciation expectation keeps the hot money from leaving. The combination may support a multi-year gradual adjustment, giving the banking system time to raise capital.
   
  Japan isn’t in a position to appreciate the yen much. Its industries have lost competitiveness to Germany’s or even the U.S.’s. Its industries haven’t had a global hit product for years. Germany and the U.S.’s auto industries are gaining over Japan’s. It’s hard to see how the yen could go up a lot. The BoJ is vulnerable to political pressure. It doesn’t have a good track record. If it lets the yen to destroy Toyota, Honda, etc., it’s hard to see how it could remain independent. Hence, it will resort to QE to hold down the yen.
   
  The euro is surging by default. The ECB seems to still be talking like the Bundesbank. But, its position can’t last through the next sovereign debt crisis. When the euro is high, some economy, not Germany or France, will get into a crisis mode. It may join the QE crowd too.
   
  The UK doesn’t need persuasion to embrace QE. It is like a big Hong Kong, all about stir-frying stocks and properties. When the bubble bursts, it doesn’t have much else to do. Devaluing the currency seems to be the only way out.
   
  Korea is small but always tries to join the big leagues. It is big in automobile, electronics and petrochemicals. Its government doesn’t need convincing to watch over the exchange rate. Recently, it has been “investigating” financial institutions for undesirable practices in the currency market.
   
  The mild Brazil is fired up too. Over the past decade, it allowed the market to double its currency value. Brazilian people are grateful for the low inflation as a result. But its growth rate is quite low, not good enough for a developing economy, leaving alone the vaunted status of one of the BRICs.
   
  It seems that nobody wants to appreciate. Most major economies will do something to keep their currencies down. That is checkmate for the U.S. Without devaluation benefits on rising exports, QE just leads to inflation, first through rising oil prices. The American people are suffering from declining housing prices and high unemployment. If the gasoline price doubles from here, the country may not be stable. How would the elite react? Probably more of the same.
   
  The world is heading towards high inflation and political instability. Another global crisis is a matter of time. The first sign would be a collapsing treasury market. The Fed is controlling the yield curve through its QE program. It would be irrational for other investors to play the game. The only reason to stay in is that the Fed won’t let the market fall. But, the underlying value is evaporating with rising money supply and the inflationary consequences. When all the investors realize this, they will all run for the exits. The Fed won’t be able to stop the stampede. If it prints enough money to take over the whole market, people with freshly minted dollars would surely want to convert the money into other assets. The dollar would collapse too.
   
  The world seems on course to another crisis in 2012.
  The same people who caused the last crisis are still in charge. They’ll get us into another. Iceland is taking its ex-prime minister to court for causing the banking crisis. Worse fates await the people who are causing the next crisis. China used to chop off the heads of its failing ministers at the capital’s vegetable market. Maybe we should bring back the practice and globalize it.

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