- I have warned repeately that the Illuminist endgame is a global currency crisis leading to a One World Currency and Global Central Bank. How do you get the sheeple all over the world to reject their own currencies and accept a One World Currency? By destroying all fiat currencies! The collapse of the USD will be the death knell of all fiat currencies!
6 Reasons Why a Dollar Crisis Is Imminent
The U.S. dollar is sliding dangerously close to a steep cliff — a possible point of no return at which the currency could collapse and America could join the ranks of the world’s banana republics.
For more than thirty years, the U.S. has resisted the restructuring, austerity and market forces required to restore the health, competitiveness and potential of its economy.
Extending a long-running policy of neglect, denial, short-sightedness, political expediency and corruption, for the past two years, the Federal Reserve has tried to prop up the increasingly uncompetitive and defective U.S. economy with what amounts to unprecedented amounts of money printing — still in effect and slated to expand. The government as a whole has increasingly spent beyond its means, doubled down on debt and pushed the limits of inflation risks as it milks the outdated perception of the dollar as a “safe haven” for all it’s worth.
The bill is coming due and the table is being set for the biggest currency crisis ever. Almost all of the key ingredients are in place for a crisis of confidence that will threaten to overwhelm all efforts to contain it — something beyond the magnitude of currency crises that unraveled Mexico in 1994, Asia in 1997, Russia in 1998, and Argentina in 1999. The similarities are now beyond disturbing. What are the key factors?
1) Financial excess: Key measures of financial excess — a U.S. budget deficit at 10% of GDP, overall credit amounting to as much as 350% of GDP, a projected $100 trillion more in entitlement obligations than the federal government can currently cover, and more than $1 trillion in state pension underfunding — are now well into the levels that undermined other countries during currency crises and rendered them insolvent, bankrupt or close to it.
2) Diminishing competitiveness: The gift of hindsight now shows that outside of housing and finance, the U.S. economy was hollowing out over the past 30 years. A withering export base and increasingly lopsided growth (as opposed to broad-based, diversified growth across multiple industries) were telltale signs in Mexico, Russia, Thailand and elsewhere that a country would have trouble paying its bills to creditors abroad.
3) Pre-existing economic pain: A high unemployment rate — roughly 10% and as much as 20% under broader measures — will limit the willingness of policymakers to make the tough choices needed to get the country’s house in order. As they’ve already demonstrated, politicians are more likely to continue trying to limit the pain and take the easy way out in the shortrun — borrowing more and printing more money — instead of taking real steps to demonstrate the country will be able to pay its bills to creditors abroad without devaluing the dollar (in other words, cut back on spending, raise taxes, reform the economy in a way that bolsters export receipts).
4) Heightened political risk: Ahead of the November midterm elections, the U.S. faces a degree of policy uncertainty we haven’t seen since the 1930′s and arguably since the years leading up to the Civil War (maybe even further back, the currency chaos after the Revolutionary War). The two parties are both historically weak and want to take the U.S. economy in radically different directions — Democrats, led by President Obama, toward more government control, greater intervention in the economy and higher taxes and Republicans, increasingly pressured by the Tea Party, toward sharply less government, lower taxes and less intervention in the economy. Unusually critical midterm election this November may set a permanent course or lead to policy paralysis. This is the kind of political uncertainty that formed the backdrop to multiple currency crises, including Mexico’s 1994 crisis, which preceded presidential elections.
5) Rising rates abroad: Real, stronger growth outside the U.S. is prompting central banks in Canada, Australia, Latin America, China and elsewhere to tighten credit, while the Fed loosens, inflates and all but signals it wants to let her rip and weaken the currency. That means growing downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. It was the raising of short-term rates in the U.S. through the late 1990′s that put Mexico, Asia (particularly Thailand) and Russia under pressure to allow their currencies to collapse.
6) Weak and defective financial system: Large numbers of U.S. banks countinue to fail on a monthly basis across the U.S. The federal government recently announced a stealth $30 billion bailout of credit unions highlights lingering problems. It continues to bankroll massive losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and has effectively nationalized mortgage finance. We still have inadequate disclosure on the true extent of bad loans — a key wildcard that led to loss of confidence in Asian and other financial crises. We still don’t know the full extent of the black hole. Banking guru Meredith Witney expects a new round of top-line pressure on all the big banks over the coming year.
There you have it: Flagging competitiveness, an inflated exchange rate, chronic deficits, ballooning debt ratios, economic stress, heightened political risk and a defective banking sector. These are the ingredients of a currency meltdown.
Against this backdrop, as we’ve seen in past currency crises, speculators eventually take advantage of a status quo they correctly see as unsustainable. They take short positions and/or hedge by buying gold and other protection. Ultimately, central banks can’t resist reality and the pressure of the market. Two additional factors could soon be in play:
1) Capital flight: From elites, top investment funds and banks. The sharp drop of trading volume on U.S. equity markets, heavy inflows into commodity funds, hedges such as gold and even farmland and outflows into overseas markets funds and ETFs may be early omens. There is also growing evidence of human capital flight from the U.S., as the business climate continues to deteriorate and high-skill individuals seek higher after-tax returns from themselves abroad.
2) Violent conflict: The Chiapas Rebellion in Mexico intensified anxiety of the country’s management in 1994. Current potential flash points include Iran/Israel/The Middle East, North Korea, the South China Sea and China-Japan.
- Although things appear somewhat calm in the financial market, this is not the case. The problems the world face is intractable. Something has got to give. Here are some recent warnings from the real experts and not the propaganda shills:
Ben Davies – The World Monetary Earthquake, The Dash From Cash
… The inevitable conclusion of most countries today is that the best way to extricate themselves from the current mess is to shift effective demand away from imports onto domestically produced goods. The preferred method is competitive currency devaluations. …. Unfortunately this is not possible for all, and leads to friction as countries effectively steal other nations output to bolster their own.
Within a single week 25 nations have deliberately slashed the values of their currencies. Nothing quite comparable with this has ever happened before in the history of the world. This world monetary earthquake will carry many lessons.
The dollar pegs, primarily the Asian renminbi dollar semi-fixed exchange rate, what most refer to as Bretton Woods II, have (arguably) been responsible for the financial friction we observe today. …. The RMB and US dollar are constantly colliding into each other. The clashing of these two tectonic currency plates has just begun to accelerate at an alarming rate. Ironically the move to greater currency flexibility on the part of the RMB against the dollar stands ready to produce the almighty mother of seismic monetary events – the collapse of the fiat currency system.
James Turk – Upside Explosion, The Short Squeeze Is On (Gold And Silver)
“…very positive …. the momentum is starting to build ….. the big money is coming off of the sidelines which is what we expected because it is obvious now that the upside explosion has begun.” “The gold shares, the XAU and the HUI have not confirmed as of yet by making new highs, and that is keeping a lot of people out of this market. I expect the gold indexes to hit new highs this week.”
“The short squeeze is on and the bears are feeling the pressure. As the price continues to rise, then we will eventually see the shorts capitulate. Hang on with strong hands, accept the volatility, because we are going a lot higher.”
John Williams – Dollar Crisis-of-Confidence & Gold
Gold and Dollar Signal Problems. … the continued rally in precious metal prices and renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar appear to be signaling growing global concern of the implications of an actual re-intensification of the downturn in U.S. economic activity.
Particularly destabilizing to the markets are fears of the likely responses of the Federal Reserve and the federal government to forestall systemic collapse through significant debasement of the U.S. dollar.
The current circumstances are of a nature that could trigger further central bank activity — overt or covert — in terms of slamming the price of gold or attempting to prop the value of the U.S. dollar with short-lived actions ranging from direct intervention in the markets to jawboning. As dollar-defensive efforts get more serious, such will signal an intensification of dollar-dumping desires by holders of the U.S. currency, and the rapid nearing of the ultimate crisis-of-confidence in the dollar.
- We are very close to a calamitous collapse in the USD. People in the know have already lost confidence in the USD. The smart money is fleeing. It is only a matter a time before the sheeple wake up. My advice is: buy physical gold and silver!
- When the USD collapses, it will trigger a global currency crisis. Nations around the world will have to decide whether they want their currencies to follow the USD down or not. It is a major problem. Something like 20+ countries (a record) have intervene in the past 4 weeks to weaken their currencies against the USD ie competitive devaluations.
U.S. Dollar Is `One Step Nearer’ to Crisis as Debt Level Climbs, Yu Says
The U.S. dollar is “one step nearer” to a crisis as debt levels in the world’s largest economy increase, said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to China’s central bank. Any appreciation of the dollar is “really temporary” and a devaluation of the currency is inevitable as U.S. debt rises, Yu said in a speech in Singapore today.
“Such a huge amount of debt is terrible,” Yu said. “The situation will be worsening day by day. I think we are one step nearer to a U.S.-dollar crisis.” Yu also said China is worried about the safety of its foreign-exchange reserves including those invested in U.S. Treasuries as the U.S. currency weakens, reiterating his earlier views on the dollar assets. The U.S. will record a $1.3 trillion budget deficit for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, the Congressional Budget Office said Aug. 19.
The estimated budget deficit for this fiscal year would be equivalent to 9.1 percent of gross domestic product, the CBO said. That would make it the second-largest shortfall in 65 years, exceeded only by the 9.9 percent in 2009.
Reduced U.S. Holdings
China, the biggest foreign investor in U.S. government bonds, cut its holdings by about 10 percent to $846.7 billion in the 12 months ended July, according to the Treasury Department. U.S. Treasuries fail to provide safety or liquidity in managing China’s $2.45 trillion foreign-exchange reserves, Yu said in an e-mail in August. To help cool demand for the securities, China needs to curb the growth of its foreign reserves by intervening less in the currency market, he said.
China should reduce its holdings of U.S.-dollar assets to diversify risks of “sharp depreciation,” Yu said in July. The nation should convert some holdings in U.S. dollars into assets denominated in other currencies, commodities and direct investments overseas, he wrote in a commentary in the China Securities Journal.
The increased convertibility of the yuan will ease pressure on the currency to appreciate, Yu said today at an event organized by Singapore Management University. The yuan has strengthened almost 2 percent against the dollar since June 19, when China’s central bank said it will pursue a more flexible exchange rate. China maintained a peg of 6.83 yuan per dollar from July 2008 to June 2010.
China will independently determine the level of the yuan and the U.S. doesn’t need to vote on the issue this week, Vice Commerce Minister Chen Jian said in Taipei yesterday.
The U.S. House of Representatives is due to vote tomorrow on legislation pressing China to raise the currency’s value amid assertions the yuan is undervalued and gives the Asian nation a trade advantage. The legislation would let companies petition for higher duties on Chinese imports.
“The basic trend is for an appreciation” of the yuan, Yu said in an interview after his speech today. “No one can predict the specific pace of the appreciation. This is difficult to say as it depends on circumstances. We should not be speculators.”