Socio-Economics History Blog

Socio-Economics & History Commentary

John Lekas: Dow Will Fall Below 6300 by Year End And Reach 4200 By 2011

  • I concur with John Lekas. End October will be calamity week. USD collapse, Iran war…. banking system crisis, monetary crisis…, Comex default, stock market waterfall dive pattern…
     
  • I suggest exiting all stocks (apart from gold/silver stocks). I would exit USD denominated assets. I would exit the US market immediately because when the calamity starts, I believe the Obama administration will impose capital controls. You will not be able to take your money out of America without severe constraints. For eg. say 30% tax, a maximum of say US$10M a month withdrawal etc… you get the idea.
     
  • I do not believe US treasuries are a safe haven. There may be a default coming. I recommend only physical precious metals. When the world rejects USD, they will turn to gold as settlement for international trade. I do not recommend gold/silver ETFs. You never know, the Obama administration may take a leaf out of Roosevelt and institute gold confiscation. Precious metals ETFs will likely be the target. It is difficult to enforce confiscation from individual holders of physical gold. There is simply too much work to do to take gold from the masses. Many will simply deny they have any, very much like in the Roosevelt era. See: Obama, Roosevelt, Gold Confiscation and Dollar Devaluation .

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October 7, 2009 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , | 2 Comments

Max Keiser: Dollar To Be Buried Way Before 2018!

  • The Gold Empire fights back! We are returning to the Gold Standard! The world will return to gold and silver as real money!! The rest of the world is fed up with America. Yes, they are planning to end the USD hegemony! A new world reserve currency that is 50% backed by gold is being formulated!

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October 7, 2009 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , | Comments Off

China Calls Time on Dollar Hegemony!

  • For those who still believe that the USD will never collapse: You are totally wrong! Both China and Russia are openly calling for an end to the USD hegemony. So is the UN. This is no small matter. It will lead to conflict. I don’t mean just economic and financial conflicts and trade wars. I mean military conflict. The Illuminati shadow rulers will not give up on their fiat currency hegemony without a fight! They will likely sacrifice America in this fight. America will be the bad cop while Europe plays the ‘good’ cop.
     
  • The Telegraph UK reports :
     
    You can date the end of dollar hegemony from China’s decision last month to sell its first batch of sovereign bonds in Chinese yuan to foreigners.
       
    Beijing does not need to raise money abroad since it has $2 trillion (£1.26 trillion) in reserves. The sole purpose is to prepare the way for the emergence of the yuan as a full-fledged global currency.
     
    “It’s the tolling of the bell,” said Michael Power from Investec Asset Management. “We are only beginning to grasp the enormity and historical significance of what has happened.”
     
    It is this shift in China and other parts of rising Asia and Latin America that threatens dollar domination, not the pricing of oil contracts. The markets were
    rattled yesterday by reports – since denied – that China, France, Japan, Russia, and Gulf states were plotting to replace the Greenback as the currency for commodity sales, but it makes little difference whether crude is sold in dollars, euros, or Venetian Ducats.
     
    What matters is where OPEC oil producers and rising export powers choose to invest their surpluses. If they cease to rotate this wealth into US Treasuries, mortgage bonds, and other US assets, the dollar must weaken over time.
     
    Everybody in the world is massively overweight the US dollar,” said David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC. “As they invest a little here and little there in other currencies, or gold, it slowly erodes the dollar. It is like sterling after World War One. Everybody can see it’s happening.”
     
    “In the US they have near zero rates, external deficits, and public debt sky-rocketing to 100pc of GDP, and on top of that they are printing money. It is the perfect storm for the dollar,” he said. “The dollar rallied last year because we had a global liquidity crisis, but we think the rules have changed and that it will be very different this time [if there is another market sell-off]” he said.
     
    The self-correcting mechanism in the global currency system has been jammed until now because China and other Asian powers have been holding down their currencies to promote exports. The Gulf oil states are mostly pegged to the dollar, for different reasons. This strategy has become untenable. It is causing them to import a US monetary policy that is too loose for their economies and likely to fuel unstable bubbles as the global economy recovers.
     
    Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, a board member of the European Central Bank, said China for one needs to bite bullet. “I think the best way is that China starts adopting its own monetary policy and detach itself from the Fed’s policy.”
     
    Beijing has been schizophrenic,
    grumbling about the eroding value of its estimated $1.6 trillion of reserves held in dollar assets while at the same time perpetuating the structure that causes them to accumulate US assets in the first place – that is to say, by refusing to let the yuan rise at any more than a glacial pace.
     
    For all its talk, China bought a further $25bn of US Treasuries in June and $25bn in July. The weak yuan has helped to keep China’s factories open – and to preserve social order – during the economic crisis, though exports were still down 23pc in August. But this policy is on borrowed time. Reformers in Beijing are already orchestrating a profound shift in China’s economy from export reliance (38pc of GDP) to domestic demand, and they know that keeping the dollar peg too long will ultimately cause them to lose export edge anyway – via the more damaging route of inflation.
     
    For the time being, Europe is bearing the full brunt of Asia’s currency policy. The dollar peg has caused the yuan to slide against the euro, even as China’s trade surplus with the EU grows. It reached €169bn (£156bn) last year. This is starting to provoke protectionist rumblings in Europe, where unemployment is nearing double digits.
     
    ECB governor Guy Quaden said patience is running thin. “The problem is not the exchange rate of the dollar against the euro, but rather the relationship between the dollar and certain Asian currencies, to mention one, the Chinese Yuan. I say no more.”
     
    France’s finance minister Christine Lagarde said at the G7 meeting that the euro had been pushed too high. “We need a rebalancing so that one currency doesn’t take the flak for the others.” Clearly this is more than a dollar problem. It is a mismatch between the old guard – US, Europe, Japan – and the new powers that require stronger currencies to reflect their dynamism and growing wealth. The longer this goes on, the more havoc it will cause to the global economy.
     
    The new order may look like the 1920s, with four or five global currencies as regional anchors – the yuan, rupee, euro, real – and the dollar first among equals but not hegemon. The US will be better for it.

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October 7, 2009 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Robert Fisk on the Gulf ‘Ditching the Dollar’ in Oil Trade!

October 7, 2009 Posted by | Economics | , , , | Comments Off

Whalen: The “Real” Economy Is Dying! Q4 “Going to Be a Bloodbath!”

  • Wakey! Wakey! He is obviously not the only one warning about a horrendous Q4 2009. The bloodbath will start around end October. How bad? It should be worse than last year!
     
  • Yahoo finance reports:
      
    ……. all is not right in either the economy or the banking sector, according to Christopher Whalen, managing director at
    Institutional Risk Analytics. In fact, Whalen says most observers are drawing the wrong economic conclusions from the stock market’s robust rally.
     
    “Why is liquidity going into the financial sector? It’s because the real economy is dying [and] everyone is fleeing into the stocks and bonds because they’re liquid at the moment,” Whalen says. “That’s not a good sign.”
     
    The banking sector’s assets shrunk by about $300 billion per quarter in the first half of 2009, a sign of banks hoarding cash in anticipation of additional future losses, according to Whalen. “The real economy is shrinking because of a lack of credit.”
     
    The shrinkage will continue into 2010, Whalen predicts, suggesting the banking sector hasn’t yet seen the peak in loan losses. Institutional Risk Analytics forecasts the FDIC will ultimately need $300 billion to $400 billion to recoup losses to its bank insurance fund. (In other words,
    the $45 billion the FDIC sought to raise last week by asking banks to prepay fees is just a drop in the bucket.)
     
    “Investors should think about this because the fourth quarter in the banking industry is going to be a bloodbath,” says Whalen, who believes smaller and regional banks like Hudson City Bancorp may come into favor vs. larger peers, which have dramatically outperformed since the March lows.
     
    “When you see the markets rallying when the real economy is shrinking that tells you this [recovery] is not going to be very enduring,” Whalen says.
     
    In this regard, Whalen finds himself in philosophical agreement with
    Nouriel Roubini, George Soros and Meredith Whitney, among other “prophets of the apocalypse” who’ve once again been raising red flags in recent days.

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October 7, 2009 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Autism Explodes As Childhood Vaccines Increase!!

  • Thimerosal, which is ethyl mercury (49.6% mercury), is the cause of autism IMO. There are probably some genetic factors that make some children more susceptible to it. But the full blame has still to be on thimerosal. This is just a preservative. So there is no reason why it must be used. With good refrigeration, it is totally unnecessary.
     
  • Will you inject yourself with mercury? Obviously not. The amount of mercury injected into children far exceeds the guidelines laid out by the FDA for food. It is no big secret that mercury causes brain disorders. This is a known fact. Make sure you ask for thimerosal free vaccines because they are available. I personally do not believe in vaccines. So I will not suggest anyone take it.
     
  • PrisonPlanet.com reports :
      
    Cases of autism amongst children have doubled since 2003 according to a government survey out today, highlighting once again the direct link between vaccines containing mercury and the brain disorder, as millions more parents give the green light for their kids to be injected with the thimerosal-containing H1N1 shot over the coming weeks.
     
    “While research has suggested that the prevalence of autism spectrum disorders in American children was about 1 of every 150 children, a new government study estimates that the prevalence is more likely about 1 in every 91 children,” reports
    U.S. News & World Report.
     
    “The study, which is published in the October issue of Pediatrics, estimated that 110 of every 10,000 U.S. youngsters will be diagnosed at some point in their lives with an autism spectrum disorder. That currently translates to about 673,000 American children with some form of autism, according to the study.”
     
    Claims by the CDC and the Institute of Medicine, following a whitewash study that ignored previously verified evidence, that thimerosal, a mercury based preservative, has no causal relationship to skyrocketing cases of autism have been soundly rejected by top doctors and scientists ever since.
      
    Epidemiologist Tom Verstraeten and Dr. Richard Johnston, an immunologist and pediatrician from the University of Colorado, both concluded that thimerosal was responsible for the dramatic rise in cases of autism but their findings were dismissed by the CDC.
     
    Cases of autism in the U.S. have now increased by over 2700 per cent since 1991, which is when vaccines for children doubled, and the number of immunizations is only increasing. Just one in 2,500 children were diagnosed with autism before 1991, whereas one in 91 children now have the disease, up from one in 150 just six years ago.
     
    A peer reviewed study by Dr. Mark Geier which appeared in the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons showed that the IOM research was flawed because it was largely based on a Danish study by Anders Peter Hviid, which did not account for the fact that American children have a much higher mercury burden than children in Denmark.
     
    “At the high levels (of thimerosal exposure), it is undeniable there is a causal relationship, and we have gone to high levels. Their studies, therefore are not relevant, I am not saying they are wrong, although there are many criticisms of it. It is just not relative to the US situation,” said Geier. Geier’s study concludes that there is an increase of neuro development disorders following the use of thimerosal containing vaccines.
     
    Dr. Rashid Buttar, who has pioneered a new treatment for autistic children that removes mercury from their bodies, said the Institute of Medicine’s conclusion that mercury does not cause autism demonstrates the “complete absence of any desire to discover scientific truth at the supposed highest levels of medical academia.”
     
    “When 31 children recover from a devastating disease by a simple transdermal treatment that detoxifies metals, then common sense dictates that perhaps metals are involved,” states Dr. Bob Nash the chairman of the American Board of Clinical Metal Toxicology (ABCMT) in regard to Dr. Buttar’s treatment.
      
    “In 1977, a Russian study found that adults exposed to ethyl mercury, the form of mercury in thimerosal, suffered brain damage years later. Studies on thimerosal poisoning also describe tubular necrosis and nervous system injury, including obtundation, coma and death. As a result of these findings, Russia banned thimerosal from children’s vaccines in 1980. Denmark, Austria, Japan, Great Britain and all the Scandinavian countries have also banned the preservative,”
    writes Dawn Prate.
     
    Mercury is classified by The Department of Defense as a hazardous material that could cause death if swallowed, inhaled or absorbed through the skin, and the
    EPA is now limiting mercury emissions from factories because the toxin “can damage the brain and nervous system and is especially dangerous to fetuses and small children,” but according to the CDC it’s perfectly safe to inject into your child’s bloodstream.
     
    Despite concerns about thimerosal and mercury, thimerosal is an ingredient of the swine flu vaccine which is currently being rolled out for children all over the country. “Some of the vaccine will be stored in multi-dose vials containing thimerosal, an antibacterial additive that contains mercury,”
    reported the Washington Post in an article about which groups will receive the swine flu vaccine first. Indeed, the swine flu vaccine contains no less than 25,000 per cent the amount of mercury considered safe.

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October 7, 2009 Posted by | Medicine & Health | | 3 Comments

Abkhazia Conflict Worsens As Russia Escorts Freight Vessels! Georgian Conflict Tensions Rise After Ships Seizure !

  • What are these noises in the Caucasus about? This is the mosquito that will pin Russia down in a coming middle east conflict. The sad fact is that Georgians will be sacrificed to achieve the goals of the Illuminati shadow rulers. I seriously doubt the Georgians will last very long in a conflict with the Russian bear. So maybe the puppet masters have something bigger up their sleeves? A limited conflict between NATO and Russia?? Or will America be sacrificed to do this job??
     
  • I suspect that once the attack on Iran is triggered the conflict in the Caucasus will start. The Russians are great chess players. It is in their culture and education system to think strategically and tactically. They are no doubt fully prepared for this conflict and will decimate the opposition. They will bare their claws in a position of strength to ward off any thoughts of (NATO ?? US ??) engaging them in a war.
     
    Georgian Conflict Tensions Rise After Ships Seizure 
    CAUCASUS – Once again the simmering political cauldron in the disputed regions appear to be boiling up with Russia’s announcement this week that they are to escort freighters en route to Abkhazia, the Georgian breakaway state.
     
    After the Handy Shipping Guide
    report last month on the escalation of the conflict after the seizure by Georgia of the MV “Buket” a Turkish owned tanker, there have been several unconfirmed reports of the detention of further vessels. Russia has now confirmed that she will supply patrol craft and armed warships to patrol the waters off the Abkhazian coast and accompany cargo ships headed for the region with supplies.
     
    The Russian are reported to be constructing the infrastructure they require to support their vessels in the Abkhazian port of Ochamchira, under the terms of the agreement signed between the two last year when Russia formally recognised both Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states.
      
    In a polarisation of their position Russia are apparently preparing to issue Abkhaz citizens with passports “within one or two months.” This after the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton stated recently the US would work with other countries to ensure the small state would remain a dominion of Georgia and not be recognised by any nation, other than those (Russia, Nicaragua and Venezuela) who had agreed to the split. After hearing that Russia intended to build up its forces in the area a statement from the US Department of State said,
     
    “This action contravenes Russia’s commitments under the August 12 ceasefire agreement brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy between Russia and Georgia, and violates Georgia’s territorial integrity.
     
    “We call on Russia to honour its commitments under the August 12 and September 8 ceasefire agreements. This includes removing its troops to positions held prior to the start of the conflict, allowing unfettered humanitarian access, and allowing human rights organizations to investigate allegations of ethnic cleansing.”
     
    Whilst on a visit to Abkhazia Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov responded,
     
    “If our U.S. partners are set on preventing the recognition of Abkhazia’s independence, we will resist attempts to impose opinions on sovereign states,”
     
    Russia vetoed a UN vote to allow observers into the country earlier this year unless the mandate referred to South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states.
     
    In a further twist Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is reported to have said last week that the $500 million promised to his country was being used as a bargaining chip to obtain his country’s recognition of the two ex Georgian states.
     
  • Keep in mind that it was Georgia who started the unnecessary war last year. So the Russians and South Ossetians and Abkhazians are right to be aggrieved.
     
    Independent Experts Blame Georgia for South Ossetia War
    An EU expert commission has put the blame for last summer’s South Ossetia war on Georgia, but also holds Russia partly responsible, SPIEGEL has learned. The findings, which are still under wraps, are likely to reignite the debate on the causes of the war when they are published.
     
    The
    independent commissionappointed by the European Union to investigate the war between Georgia and Russia last summer has concluded that Tbilisi is responsible for causing the five-day conflict, SPIEGEL has learned.
     
    According to diplomats in Brussels who are familiar with the contents of the secret document, the EU experts also assign part of the responsibility for the war to Russia, however. The report, which stems from an initiative by German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and his colleagues from the Benelux countries, concludes that Moscow escalated the conflict through its massive deployment of troops. 

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October 7, 2009 Posted by | GeoPolitics | | 2 Comments

United Nations Calls for New Reserve Currency

  • The assault on the USD continues. Yesterday, as expected, a flurry of denials came from the Arabs and others. What do you expect? Complete honesty that they are planning to dump the USD? Obviously not! It is quite apparent to anyone who understands the Illuminati’s USD hegemony that it will be a declaration of war. Arab politicians who say they will abandon oil trading in USD will undoubtedly be ‘suicided’. No one is so dumb to admit it. Yes, there are major moves behind the scenes to say bye bye to the USD.
     
  • Here is one more clue. Breibart.com reports :
      
    The United Nations called on Tuesday for a new global reserve currency to end dollar supremacy which has allowed the United States the “privilege” of building a huge trade deficit.
     
    “Important progress in managing imbalances can be made by reducing the reserve currency country?s ‘privilege’ to run external deficits in order to provide international liquidity,”
    UN undersecretary-general for economic and social affairs, Sha Zukang, said.
     
    Speaking at the annual meetings of the
    International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Istanbul, he said: “It is timely to emphasise that such a system also creates a more equitable method of sharing the seigniorage derived from providing global liquidity.”
      
    He said: “Greater use of a truly global reserve currency, such as the
    IMF?s special drawing rights (SDRs), enables the seigniorage gained to be deployed for development purposes,” he said. The SDRs are the asset used in IMF transactions and are based on a basket of four currencies — the dollar, euro, yen and pound — which is calculated daily.  

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October 7, 2009 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , | Comments Off

   

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