GEAB Forecast – 4th quarter 2009 – Global Systemic Crisis: Global Geopolitical Dislocation !

• Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB) has released their latest forecast N°32. They are anticipating the collapse of the USD and America. The result is global geopolitical unrest and likely war. As America collapses, there will be a power vacuum. The world will re-align itself into various region with similar interest for mutual survival. GEAB N°32 :
   
  Back in February 2006, LEAP/E2020 estimated that the global systemic crisis would unfold in 4 main structural phases: trigger, acceleration, impact and decanting phases. This process enabled us to properly anticipate events until now. However our team has now come to the conclusion that, due to the global leaders’ incapacity to fully realise the scope of the ongoing crisis (made obvious by their determination to cure the consequences rather than the causes of this crisis), the global systemic crisis will enter a fifth phase in the fourth quarter of 2009, a phase of global geopolitical dislocation.
   
  According to LEAP/E2020, this new stage of the crisis will be shaped by two major processes happening in two parallel sequences:
   
  A. Two major processes:
  1. Disappearance of the financial base (Dollar & Debt) all over the world
  2. Fragmentation of the interests of the global system’s big players and blocks
   
  B. Two parallel sequences:
  1. Quick disintegration of the current international system altogether 2. Strategic dislocation of big global players.
   
  We had hoped that the decanting phase would give the world’s leaders the opportunity to draw the proper conclusions from the collapse of the global system prevailing since WWII. Alas, at this stage, it is no longer possible to be optimistic in this regard (1). In the United States, as in Europe, China and Japan, leaders persist in reacting as if the global system has only fallen victim to some temporary breakdown, merely requiring loads of fuel (liquidities) and other ingredients (rate drops, repurchase of toxic assets, bailouts of semi-bankrupt industries,…) to reboot it. In fact (and this is what LEAP/E2020 means ever since February 2006 using the expression « global systemic crisis”), the global system is simply out of order; a new one needs to be built instead of striving to save what can no longer be saved. 


Orders in the manufacturing sector, Quarter 4 2008 (Japan, Eurozone, United Kingdom, China, India) - Sources : MarketOracle / JPMorgan

• Our leaders have messed up and did not implement corrective changes that will resolve the current crisis. But instead have bowed to the money power of the banksters. GEAB adds :
     
  History is not known to be patient, therefore the fifth phase of the crisis will ignite this required process of reconstruction, but in a harsh manner: by means of a complete dislocation of the present system, with particularly tragic consequences in the case of several big global players, as described in this 32nd issue of the GEAB (see the two parallel sequences).
   
  According to LEAP/E2020, there is only one very small launch window left to prevent this scenario from shaping up: the next four months, before summer 2009. Practically speaking, the April 2009 G20 Summit is probably the last chance to put on the right tracks the forces at play, i.e. before the sequence of UK and then US defaults begin (2). Failing which, they will lose their capacity to control events (3), including those in their own countries for many of them; and the world will enter this phase of geopolitical dislocation like a “drunken boat”. At the end of this phase of geopolitical dislocation, the world will look more like Europe in 1913 rather than our world in 2007.
   
  Because they persisted in bearing the ever-increasing weight of the ongoing crisis, most states, including the most powerful ones, failed to realise that they were planning their own trampling under the weight of History, forgetting that they were merely man-made organisations, only surviving because they matched the interest of a large majority. In this 32nd edition of the GEAB, LEAP/E2020 has chosen to anticipate the fallout of this phase of geopolitical dislocation so far as it affects the United-States, EU, China and Russia.  
   
  It is high time for the general population and socio-political players to get ready to face very hard times during which whole segments of our societies will be modified (4), temporarily disappear or even permanently vanish. For instance, the breakdown of the global monetary system we anticipated for summer 2009 will indeed entail the collapse of the US dollar (and all USD-denominated assets), but it will also induce, out of psychological contagion, a general loss of confidence in paper money altogether (these consequences give rise to a number of recommendations in this issue of the GEAB).
   
  Last but not least, our team now estimates that the most monolithic, the most « imperialistic » political entities (5) will suffer the most from this fifth phase of the crisis. Some states will indeed experience a strategic dislocation undermining their territorial integrity and their influence worldwide. As a consequence, other states will suddenly lose their protected situations and be thrust into regional chaos. 
       
• As mentioned in my earlier posts, we are entering a period that looks increasingly like the period in between the 2 World Wars. Great social upheaval, riots, poverty, social injustice, high unemployment…. and it led to World War 2. As the sole remaining super power America collapses, the world will be fragmented into sub regions. And new regional powers will rise and assert themselves. Countries that were once a protectorate of America will feel vulnerable. My feeling is that the EU will bite the economic depression bullet, expand and move on. Russia and its allies will tough it out. How these geopolitical dislocations will play out for Asia, Americas and Africa remain to be seen. Asia will no doubt align itself with China and Japan. Will Africa be merged with the Americas? Who knows?
   
• Keep in mind what happened last year on 1st Oct 2008, America formally activated its AFRICOM, the United States Africa Command :
   
  The United States Africa Command (USAFRICOM or AFRICOM) is a Unified Combatant Command of the United States Department of Defense that is responsible for U.S. military operations and military relations with 53 African nations – an area of responsibility covering all of Africa except Egypt. Africa Command was established October 1, 2007 as a temporary sub-unified command under U.S. European Command, which for more than two decades was responsible for U.S. military relations with more than 40 African nations. Africa Command was formally activated October 1, 2008, during a public ceremony at the Pentagon attended by representatives of African nations posted in Washington, D.C.
   

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